📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus
Uncontrolled property crime and a non-prosecuting DA plus post-COVID commuter collapse push national retailers to close SF stores and residents/investors to leave the state — bearish California urban office and retail real estate. Jason announces he is personally relocating to Texas or Florida.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 60.0 WATCH
WATCH
band
▼ SHORT HPP
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +44.6% · α +54.1%
2022-07-09
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT HPP (primary play). HPP fell 44.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +44.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.5%
→ α = +44.6 − (-9.5) = +54.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +35.1% — did HPP move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 44.6, α 54.1)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: CMF→PARTIAL (+8.2%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-09)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | HPP | stock | PRIMARY | Hudson Pacific is the most SF/LA-concentrated office landlord — the cleanest short expression of an SF exodus |
| ▼ SHORT | CMF | etf | adjacent | California muni bonds price the state-fiscal 'debt spiral' Jason names |
| ▼ SHORT | KRC | stock | adjacent | Kilroy Realty is heavily SF/West-coast office |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E57 (2021-12-04) · sentiment · strength 3
▶ 57:30
SUPPORT
“We walked through Union Square and it was cordoned off with cop cars at every intersection. ... Every single store has had every single window boarded up like it's a hurricane season. ... But like Zara, The Gap, Nike, every single storefront has been boarded up. And then there are security guards outside and you have to make an appointment to go Christmas shopping.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E57 (2021-12-04) · sentiment · strength 3
▶ 12:07
SUPPORT
“I'm definitely out of here. If the boss of San Francisco is out of here, I'm definitely out of here. But I have some people, some other people to convince. ... This is the logical result of everything I've been warning about since the beginning of the year. You have prosecutors like Chase Aboudin who have essentially decriminalized theft by refusing to prosecute it.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E59 (2021-12-17) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:17:04
SUPPORT
“the city has totally degenerated into some sort of dystopian Gotham-like city. ... This is just the beginning of what needs to be done. ... So we have a huge problem that the police department is actually, we have too few of them, we're understaffed.”
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E68 (2022-02-19) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 32:14
SUPPORT
“what we're realizing in San Francisco is non-prosecution of criminals, as the DA has undertaken over the past couple of years, leads to really heinous crime and rampant crime. ... But it doesn't mean that the movement is over. It doesn't mean that quote unquote wokeism is over.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E86 (2022-07-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 14:59
SUPPORT
“they're just not going to be able to hit their debt service coverage ratio. So they will be in default. What that means is, I don't understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco, half the buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks. Well, the banks don't want to own all these buildings, so it's going to be a fire sale. But I don't know who the buyers are going to be.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -68.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E39 2021-07-09 | init | +40.8 | 40.8 | E39 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97] |
| E39 2021-07-09 | reinforce | +14.2 | 55.0 | E39 Sacks support x3 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -2.2 | 52.8 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -2.1 | 50.6 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -2.0 | 48.6 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.9 | 46.7 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.9 | 44.8 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.8 | 43.0 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.7 | 41.3 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.7 | 39.6 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.7 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | reinforce | +11.4 | 40.0 | E57 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89] |
| E57 2021-12-04 | reinforce | +10.5 | 50.5 | E57 Jason support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -2.0 | 48.5 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | reinforce | +6.8 | 55.3 | E59 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89] |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +4.7 | 60.0 | E60 Sacks support x1 [w=0.89] |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -2.4 | 57.6 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -2.3 | 55.3 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -2.2 | 53.1 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -2.1 | 51.0 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -2.0 | 49.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.9 | 45.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | reinforce | +10.7 | 55.8 | E68 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87] |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -2.2 | 53.6 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -2.1 | 51.4 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -2.1 | 49.4 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -2.0 | 47.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.9 | 45.5 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.8 | 43.7 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.7 | 41.9 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.5 | 37.1 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.5 | 35.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -1.4 | 32.8 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.3 | 31.5 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | reinforce | +10.2 | 40.4 | E86 Jason support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E86 2022-07-08 | reinforce | +9.5 | 49.9 | E86 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89] |