🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E156 (2023-12-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:35 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo

“the more fundamental thing is if you look two years out, you probably see rates around two and a half percent. And that's 160 basis points from here.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E163 (2024-01-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 13:14 SUPPORT

“are we at this inflection point where rates will always be between 2 and 4 percent for a very long time?”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E163 (2024-01-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 15:34 OPPOSE

“it's not clear that the 10-year is going to be going back down to 2%, 3% where it was during the ZERP period. It probably will be around 4%, plus or minus.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:04 SUPPORT · horizon 21mo

“Powell did say finally, it looks pretty likely we're going to get these three cuts, so we're going to be down to 4.5 to 4.75 on Fed funds by the end of the year. It probably means that we'll get another 50 to 75 basis points to 2025, so people will look out to the end of 2025 and look at a Fed funds rate that's sort of like 3.75 to 4%.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:52 OPPOSE

“inflation has not come down to the Fed's target of 2%. It's still right around 3%, 3.1%.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:10 REVERSAL · horizon 3mo

“the idea of a persistent inflation rate is a lot more credible than it was six months ago... we're probably now on balance 50-50 between a hike and a cut. And I think if you don't see this thing change in the next three months, you're going to see 75-25 for a hike of at least 25 basis points”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:12:09 SUPPORT

“So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink. And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:21:27 OPPOSE

“So I think he's going to be more concerned about airing on the side of tamping down inflation than airing on the side of the economy not doing as well.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 10:25 OPPOSE

“So it's very unlikely that we get back to a two-handle, at least in this kind of era, and as a result, you'll probably see the market kind of assume that we're going to be at a 3% kind of inflation level for quite some time.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 12:07 OPPOSE

“We should just understand that what that means is permanently higher interest rates”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E190 (2024-08-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 33:07 SUPPORT

“So Jerome Powell is probably going to cut 25 And I think that if they get to him, he'll try to cut 50 But the problem is it won't solve the problem.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E193 (2024-08-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 6:47 SUPPORT · horizon 1mo

“the silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut. And if it was 25 basis points, there's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the Fed to cut 50”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E193 (2024-08-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 13:06 SUPPORT

“But I do think that the economy is obviously showing significant weakness. Inflation is not completely solved, but it's down to 2.9 percent. At least it has a two handle on it now. And so, yeah, I think the market is pricing in these rate cuts for a reason.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E196 (2024-09-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 9:19 SUPPORT · horizon 27mo

“why will they cut probably all the way down to 2% or 3% by the end of 26? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.”

Mark Cuban (guest ×0.5) no rates track record · E198 (2024-10-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:19 SUPPORT

“they realize that there's only a couple of ways to reduce the deficit. One, you get inflation under control and that reduces interest rates, and that's going to work in our favor, and I think that's happening now. If it's $1.6 trillion, then if interest rates go below 4 percent, that saves a lot of money and probably the most you can save.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E201 (2024-10-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 44:18 REVERSAL

“I mean, my gosh, it could easily be 6%. It could easily be 7% or 8%”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E201 (2024-10-25) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 39:46 OPPOSE

“the easy one to avoid is treasuries. Do you really want to accept a 4.2% yield for 10 years”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E201 (2024-10-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 41:06 OPPOSE

“you could see a scenario where equities and gold go up while fixed income goes down to have higher rates”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E202 (2024-11-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:06 OPPOSE

“The market is saying we are expecting higher rates for longer.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E202 (2024-11-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:15 OPPOSE

“And what we're seeing is that the long rates are not going back down.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 18:59 REVERSAL · horizon 60mo

“What does 4.5% mean? I mean, if you're going to run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years, you're going to have the 10 year at 7 to 8%. That's just mathematical.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E205 (2024-11-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:28 SUPPORT

“So if DOGE, working with the rest of the government, OMB, the Treasury, Congress, executive orders, can now convince the markets that the US financial picture is more sustainable, we'll get credit for that. Interest rates will come down and that will lead to a boom in the economy.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E205 (2024-11-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 31:41 SUPPORT

“Yields contracted by five basis points. You know what the value of that is?”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E214 (2025-02-07) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:55 SUPPORT

“Elon and Besant and others in the administration have echoed, trying to get government deficit below 3% of GDP. That seems to be the economic magical number. And if you can do that, rates drop.”

Antonio Gracias (guest ×0.5) no rates track record · E214 (2025-02-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:22 SUPPORT

“The bond markets were going up. The bond bond was going up a lot because people believe that you couldn't stop spending, creating inflation. You see those trading down now as DOGE is starting to take effect. People see it's real.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 31:56 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo

“So we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10 year, which I think is really interesting. I think it's very good for Besant and for Trump. And I think I've mentioned this before, but we got to go in and refinance $10 trillion in the next six months. So you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we get a good string of data.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 1:06:26 SUPPORT

“We have $10 trillion we need to go out and borrow in the next nine months. And so if we can pay 3%, 3.8%, 4%, we save ourselves trillions of dollars versus if we had to pay 4.5%, 5%, 5.5%.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E220 (2025-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:36 REVERSAL

“So I think there's an overcorrection here that's happening, which I think is dangerous. And I think it's going to slow down the pace of cuts, which I think will then create a lot of other pressure in the economy.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E220 (2025-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:52 SUPPORT

“About a month ago, the 10-year was at 4.5 percent, and today it's at 4.22 percent. And so in the last month, we've seen rates on the 10-year decline by about a quarter point or about 30 basis points. And so the bond market is giving some kind of opening to the Fed saying, look, we expect that this is going to be deflationary, this is going to be recessionary. We are expecting you to cut rates to the Fed.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E227 (2025-05-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 25:16 REVERSAL

“I mean, if we're in a sustained period of four to five percent rates, I mean, we should talk about that at some point, but there's huge implications to the economy if this thing stays where it is, huge.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E229 (2025-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 8:17 REVERSAL · horizon 7mo

“Today, the 10-year is around 4.5 percent. At the rate in which it's escalating since Liberation Day, by the end of this year, we're going to be past 5 percent. The 30-year is on a rate now to get past 6.25, maybe even reach 6.5 percent.”

Thomas Laffont (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 1 resolved, unproven · E232 (2025-06-21) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 6:19 SUPPORT

“What if actually AI can increase productivity and regrow GDP faster than expectations, right? And perhaps that's one of the reasons why interest rates might not be quite as high as you might expect, given some of the trends that you guys have talked about.”