🌍 Delta variant is a non-event — no reopening reversal

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E38 (2021-07-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 49:02 SUPPORT

“Even if this Delta variant is highly infectious, there are enough people vaccinated in the United States at this point, that this Delta variant is not going to crush our hospital system. It's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities, which is the reason we went into lockdowns in the first place. All of the concerns that we had last year that rationalized a lot of the extreme behavior that we undertook, no longer exists.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E38 (2021-07-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 50:52 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“this delta variant is just more COVID fear porn ... The truth is, is it more transmissible? Yes, it is going to, I think, sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated. But the question is, how does it perform against the vaccines? And so far, the vaccines are holding up the variants, none of the variants have really punched through the vaccines in a meaningful way. ... If you are double vaxxed with Pfizer, you are protected against the Delta variant.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E38 (2021-07-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:08 SUPPORT

“Let me make a prediction. ... So, you know, I don't know what's going to happen with the Delta variant, maybe a lot, maybe a little, but as far as I can tell, I think people are tired of uninformed impacts to their lives, and they're not going to put up with it anymore.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E38 (2021-07-03) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 51:44 SUPPORT

“I'm agree. I'm in agreement with you. And I think this reminds me of when we were growing up in the 80s. They tried to scare us about sex and HIV.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E41 (2021-07-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:16 SUPPORT

“And I think as we talked about last time, we saw the market start to react to the potential of that on Monday. ... But I think the conventional wisdom is not that many people are going to die. Therefore, we're not going to see, you know, political leaders force restrictions that are kind of going to damage the economy.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E41 (2021-07-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 9:30 SUPPORT

“We now know, looking at from what different states did last year, that they don't make a difference. So there's no reason to go back to that policy.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E41 (2021-07-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 13:04 OPPOSE

“But I think on this specific issue, I think that it's unconscionable to be in a situation where we are fighting basically a time function, where at a certain amount of time, you're going to have a variant that is basically will overcome all the vaccines we have, will kill enormous numbers of people, including the vaccinated, will literally shut the economy down. And that's a probabilistic event now.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:00 SUPPORT

“My point is, if you have a combination of all these things, this is like a flu, which means that there'll be less ability for folks to not show up to work, which means that most of the economy really will get back going.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E57 (2021-12-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 17:19 SUPPORT

“I think this whole thing is a complete fucking nothing burger. ... It's even more impotent than Delta. ... There may be a variant that matters, but this is not it. ... So again, this whole thing is a nothing burger. Let's just move on. It's stupid.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E57 (2021-12-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 19:53 SUPPORT

“Listen, guys, we're not going back to lockdowns no matter what happens with the Omicron thing. We're not going to do school closures. ... What you're going to see is Omicron will be everywhere very soon. There's nothing that policymakers can do to stop it.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 48:25 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I'll make a prediction for 2022, okay? I will predict that even the blue areas of the country are going to have fatigue with all these COVID restrictions. And so even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mask mandates, even they are going to have to give them up in 2022 because the country is sick and tired of this. ... I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E59 (2021-12-17) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 47:45 SUPPORT

“There's no end in sight, but it is less deadly. And so it could be mass immunizing. ... The public has decided, I think, we're willing to have a thousand people die a day or a certain number of people die today to get back to normal.”