🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue
Friedberg's read off the Relativity launch: launch and space startups are capital-intensive with long milestone horizons, and public markets will not re-rate them until they find near-term business models that do not depend on government contracts, the way SpaceX did with Starlink. Government-services businesses carry low multiples and high single-customer dependency, so the listed space cohort stays capped.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 37.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT ARKX
expression · bearish tech
MISS
outcome · R -10.1% · α -43.7%
2024-03-24
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
ARKX ·
SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
LONG
GREEN 84.0
← stronger than this idea (6.3)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-03-24 → 2024-03-24 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT ARKX (primary play). ARKX rose 10.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -10.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +33.6%
→ α = -10.1 − (+33.6) = -43.7%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +23.6% — did ARKX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: SPCE→HIT (+66.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-03-24)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | ARKX | etf | PRIMARY | the listed space-and-launch cohort as a basket |
| ▼ SHORT | RKLB | stock | adjacent | Rocket Lab is the listed launch company still largely on government and single-customer contracts |
| ▼ SHORT | SPCE | stock | adjacent | Virgin Galactic is the extreme case of a space name with no near-term commercial revenue |
Mention log
Friedberg
tech w=1.08 · n=65
· E121 (2023-03-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:27:48
SUPPORT
“I do think all these guys are going to have to, in order to gain wider spread capital markets attention, like Elon has had to do with SpaceX, are going to have to find business models that have kind of near-term viability that don't depend on government contracts.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -31.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E121 2023-03-24 | init | +37.7 | 37.7 | E121 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.08] |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.5 | 36.2 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.4 | 34.7 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -1.0 | 25.1 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.9 | 20.4 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.7 | 16.7 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E171 silent |