🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E296 (2026-11-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:41 SUPPORT

“To the extent that that happens, maybe you'll get some regulatory capture on the one end, but you're going to constrain the supply so severely on the other, that the real people that will be in control of it are Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX.”

Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E295 (2026-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:30 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo

“When I say it's complicated, I think there's a story you can build in the Cloud business that shows the next couple of years of really progressive growth in that business.”

Nikesh Arora (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E294 (2026-10-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 12:51 SUPPORT

“It all depends on where you shift the profit pool. Today, they all live in NVIDIA and the memory industry, and they're being shifted towards the hyperscalers, people who have large compute available because at one, it will become less about the chips, it will become more about the availability of compute”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E294 (2026-10-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 4:50 OPPOSE

“They said, we have decreased our spend on AWS and GCP. We now have six completely independent ground up data centers that we've built from scratch for ourselves.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E289 (2026-09-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:03:56 SUPPORT

“It could be AWS. In terms of the neoscalers, it could be Nebius.”

Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:37:03 SUPPORT

“So why don't you put up with the shitty part of the rest of their businesses and just own all three and that's it, call it a day. Because you've got to assume that if one of them wins over the other two or accelerates ahead of the other two, it's going to more than make up for the losses that the other two might experience in their other businesses. The multiples aren't crazy on those three companies, by the way.”

Thomas Laffont (regular guest ×1.0) tech 58% · n=6 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:36:44 SUPPORT · horizon 60mo

“I think all four of us would agree that if we could synthetically own AWS, Azure and GCP, if I could somehow automagically create an index of all three of those businesses, right, over the next five years, you wouldn't need to own anything else.”