← pool · child of Crypto collapse triggers a multi-year enforcement and litigation wave
🪙 SEC suits drive the US crypto exchanges offshore
The SEC's simultaneous suits against Binance and Coinbase are not a negotiation, they are a shutdown: with no registration pathway and no political appetite for clarifying legislation, the surviving exchanges preserve enterprise value by redomiciling outside the US and IP-gating American users. The listed US-regulated exchange therefore loses its home market rather than being blessed as the compliant winner.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 67.1 GREEN
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT COIN
expression · bearish crypto
MISS
outcome · R -394.1% · α -419.4%
2024-06-10
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
HOOD ·
Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026
LONG
DORMANT 12.4
← stronger than this idea (8.5)
HOOD ·
Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization
LONG
DORMANT 9.7
← stronger than this idea (8.5)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT COIN (primary play). COIN rose 394.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -394.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +25.3%
→ α = -394.1 − (+25.3) = -419.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -368.8% — did COIN move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason | opposed: Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-06-10)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | COIN | stock | PRIMARY | the listed US-regulated exchange whose domestic business is the thing being litigated away |
| ▼ SHORT | BTC-USD | crypto | adjacent | US on-ramp and liquidity contract if the domestic exchange layer relocates |
| ▼ SHORT | HOOD | stock | adjacent | Chamath names Robinhood alongside Coinbase as a listed venue carrying the same unregistered-securities exposure |
Mention log
Chamath
crypto w=1.00 · n=20
· E132 (2023-06-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 20:35
SUPPORT
“I unfortunately think that the SEC has by and large put the entire sector into mate. And so I think that what Jason said is largely right, which is that it's going to force these companies to preserve enterprise value to leave the United States and to jurisdictionally operate from a different place and to basically IP block and IP gate US residents from using their products and services.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -45.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E132 2023-06-10 | init | +46.7 | 46.7 | E132 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.11] |
| E132 2023-06-10 | reinforce | +8.3 | 55.0 | E132 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.69] |
| E132 2023-06-10 | reinforce | +12.2 | 67.1 | E132 Chamath support x3 (new voice) |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -2.7 | 64.4 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -2.6 | 61.9 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -2.5 | 59.4 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -2.4 | 57.0 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | oppose | -13.3 | 43.7 | E137 Sacks opposes x2 [w=1.11] |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -1.7 | 41.9 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -1.6 | 38.6 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.5 | 37.1 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -1.5 | 35.6 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -1.4 | 32.8 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.3 | 31.5 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.0 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E182 silent |