The pool
▲▼ = conviction change in E296 (2026-11-07), shown only where the pod actually touched the idea that episode; silent ideas just drift and get no arrow · direction = expected move of the main play if the thesis is right: ▲ LONG = buy, ▼ SHORT = the besties are negative on it
Read this before you ape into anything below. Only GREEN ≥65 has ever predicted anything — below 65 is noise, so don't read the order as a leaderboard you can trade. And the bar is direction-blind while the record is not. Counted from the day each idea turned green to the day it was scored, bullish greens went on to make +17% more than SPY (typical +3%, beat SPY 53% of the time, 75 calls), bearish greens -36% (87 calls) — so a bearish green means don't own it, never short it. See every scored call →
0
active ideas
0
green · actionable
0
disputed
0
avg conviction
0
episodes mined
FILTER
42 / 42
01
🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks
GREEN
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +1.1
▲ LONG NBIS
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
15 mentions
scored on 2027-09-11
scored on 2027-09-11
02
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
▲ +4.3
▲ LONG SPCX
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
17 mentions
scored on 2029-06-19
scored on 2029-06-19
03
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
GREEN
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▼ -11.7
peaked 98.5 GREEN
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
48 mentions
scored on 2027-08-22
scored on 2027-08-22
04
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
WATCH
POD DISAGREES
MOVING
📝 MEMO
▼ bearish · rates
HISTORY
0
▲ +2.7
peaked 91.8 GREEN
▼ SHORT TLT
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
21 mentions
scored on 2028-02-13
scored on 2028-02-13
05
📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
GREEN
RUNNING
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 81.1 GREEN
▲ LONG PANW
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
11 mentions
scored on 2027-05-01
scored on 2027-05-01
06
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
▲ +3.3
peaked 79.3 GREEN
▲ LONG QQQ
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
14 mentions
scored on 2029-09-04
scored on 2029-09-04
07
⚡ Power is the AI moat: get long energy and the owners of powered land
WATCH
▲ bullish · energy
HISTORY
0
▲ +6.9
▲ LONG VST
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
5 mentions
scored on 2027-10-17
scored on 2027-10-17
08
🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints
WATCH
NOT MOVED YET
▲ bullish · macro
HISTORY
0
▲ +4.8
peaked 77.3 GREEN
▲ LONG RSP
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
25 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
09
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
↳ frontier-ai-premium
WATCH
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▼ -12.0
peaked 83.7 GREEN
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
52 mentions
scored on 2027-03-06
scored on 2027-03-06
10
🏦 Bond vigilantes hit Western Europe: French OATs to 5.5-6%, UK gilts to 6%
WATCH
▼ bearish · rates
HISTORY
0
peaked 64.3 WATCH
▼ SHORT BWX
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
3 mentions
scored on 2027-10-10
scored on 2027-10-10
11
🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab
WATCH
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +11.9
peaked 66.7 GREEN
▲ LONG TSLA
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
9 mentions
scored on 2027-04-24
scored on 2027-04-24
12
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +5.7
peaked 70.6 GREEN
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
8 mentions
scored on 2027-07-24
scored on 2027-07-24
13
🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion
WATCH
POD DISAGREES
RUNNING
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
peaked 70.7 GREEN
▲ LONG META
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
6 mentions
scored on 2027-08-14
scored on 2027-08-14
14
🏛️ US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer
WATCH
NEW
▼ bearish · politics-market
HISTORY
0
NEW
▼ SHORT FIX
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
2 mentions
scored on 2028-11-07
scored on 2028-11-07
15
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
WATCH
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
peaked 61.7 WATCH
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
3 mentions
scored on 2028-01-04
scored on 2028-01-04
16
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
WATCH
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▼ bearish · tech
HISTORY
0
peaked 73.2 GREEN
▼ SHORT AAPL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
8 mentions
scored on 2027-09-26
scored on 2027-09-26
17
⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout
WATCH
RUNNING
▲ bullish · energy
HISTORY
0
peaked 59.8 WATCH
▲ LONG GEV
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
5 mentions
scored on 2027-10-03
scored on 2027-10-03
18
🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars
WATCH
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +9.2
peaked 57.7 WATCH
▲ LONG MSFT
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
7 mentions
scored on 2028-06-21
scored on 2028-06-21
19
🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models
WATCH
POD DISAGREES
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +11.6
▲ LONG AAPL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
7 mentions
scored on 2027-05-29
scored on 2027-05-29
20
📈 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 53.5 WATCH
▲ LONG IPO
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
10 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
21
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 49.0 WATCH
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
4 mentions
scored on 2027-12-26
scored on 2027-12-26
22
📈 Nike's $200B collapse is structural, not cyclical
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▼ bearish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 65.3 GREEN
▼ SHORT NKE
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
4 mentions
scored on 2027-09-11
scored on 2027-09-11
23
🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65
EMBER
▼ bearish · commodities
HISTORY
0
▲ +17.6
peaked 50.4 WATCH
▼ SHORT USO
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
6 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
24
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▼ -1.0
peaked 48.4 WATCH
▲ LONG MSFT
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
48 mentions
scored on 2027-03-06
scored on 2027-03-06
25
🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▼ bearish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +14.4
peaked 35.0 EMBER
▼ SHORT NBIS
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
10 mentions
scored on 2027-03-08
scored on 2027-03-08
26
🤖 The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▼ bearish · tech
HISTORY
0
peaked 74.3 GREEN
▼ SHORT IGV
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
26 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
27
📈 Rate spike impairs bank equity: the October 30 call reports land as a shock
EMBER
▼ bearish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 42.0 EMBER
▼ SHORT KRE
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
1 mention
scored on 2027-10-02
scored on 2027-10-02
28
🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · politics-market
HISTORY
0
▼ -53.6
peaked 97.3 GREEN
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
23 mentions
scored on 2027-09-11
scored on 2027-09-11
29
🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026
EMBER
▼ bearish · rates
HISTORY
0
peaked 72.5 GREEN
▼ SHORT MUB
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
8 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
30
📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold
EMBER
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 40.0 EMBER
▲ LONG AMZN
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
3 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
31
📈 Web2 buyouts: the flaccid-asset M&A wave
EMBER
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 49.6 WATCH
▲ LONG PYPL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
2 mentions
scored on 2027-01-18
scored on 2027-01-18
32
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
NOT MOVED YET
📝 MEMO
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 76.6 GREEN
▲ LONG IGV
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
8 mentions
scored on 2027-08-08
scored on 2027-08-08
33
⚡ Short nuclear: SMRs miss the economic window
EMBER
▼ bearish · energy
HISTORY
0
peaked 36.0 EMBER
▼ SHORT URA
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
4 mentions
scored on 2027-01-10
scored on 2027-01-10
34
🤖 Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
peaked 56.2 WATCH
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
7 mentions
scored on 2027-01-30
scored on 2027-01-30
35
🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▼ bearish · tech
HISTORY
0
peaked 47.2 WATCH
▼ SHORT GOOGL
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
14 mentions
scored on 2027-05-09
scored on 2027-05-09
36
🪙 Decentralized AI compute (Bittensor/TAO)
EMBER
▲ bullish · crypto
HISTORY
0
peaked 44.2 EMBER
▲ LONG cg:bittensor
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
3 mentions
scored on 2027-04-03
scored on 2027-04-03
37
🏛️ Tort floodgates open on social media
EMBER
▼ bearish · politics-market
HISTORY
0
peaked 35.0 EMBER
▼ SHORT META
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
2 mentions
scored on 2027-03-27
scored on 2027-03-27
38
🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis
EMBER
▼ bearish · politics-market
HISTORY
0
peaked 30.6 EMBER
▼ SHORT TSLA
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
2 mentions
scored on 2027-04-17
scored on 2027-04-17
39
🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital
EMBER
POD DISAGREES
▲ bullish · tech
HISTORY
0
▲ +14.4
peaked 59.6 WATCH
▲ LONG MSFT
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
10 mentions
scored on 2026-12-29
scored on 2026-12-29
40
🪙 OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk
EMBER
▼ bearish · crypto
HISTORY
0
peaked 20.0 EMBER
▼ SHORT cg:bitcoin
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
1 mention
scored on 2027-10-10
scored on 2027-10-10
41
📈 Retatrutide: Lilly's premium peptide upgrade path
EMBER
▲ bullish · equities
HISTORY
0
peaked 46.7 WATCH
▲ LONG LLY
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
2 mentions
scored on 2027-05-01
scored on 2027-05-01
42
🛢️ Global nitrogen-fertilizer supply shock
EMBER
▲ bullish · commodities
HISTORY
0
peaked 41.4 EMBER
▲ LONG CF
EXPRESSION · PRIMARY
2 mentions
scored on 2027-04-03
scored on 2027-04-03
Closed ideas — the ledger (526 resolved)
| idea | cat | dir | play | window | result | return | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 | rates | ▲ LONG | TLT | 2025-11-07 → 2026-11-07 | WRONG | -4.6% | -15.4% |
| 🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2025-04-26 → 2026-10-26 | RIGHT | +64.7% | +23.4% |
| 📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast | equities | ▼ SHORT | DKNG | 2025-10-24 → 2026-10-24 | RIGHT | +36.6% | +23.2% |
| 📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization | equities | ▲ LONG | ICE | 2025-10-10 → 2026-10-10 | WRONG | +0.5% | -20.0% |
| 📈 Private equity model is broken | equities | ▼ SHORT | BX | 2025-10-03 → 2026-10-03 | RIGHT | +31.0% | +14.7% |
| 📈 Gaming is AI's biggest entertainment winner | equities | ▲ LONG | ESPO | 2025-10-03 → 2026-10-03 | WRONG | -18.4% | -34.7% |
| 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset | equities | ▲ LONG | CAT | 2025-09-07 → 2026-09-07 | RIGHT | +94.2% | +74.2% |
| 🤖 Demand mix shifts to inference and Nvidia has to choose margin or share | tech | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2024-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | WRONG | -82.5% | -122.3% |
| 📈 The CRE refinancing wall bites — buildings go back to the banks | equities | ▼ SHORT | BXP | 2025-08-29 → 2026-08-29 | WRONG | +0.1% | -20.4% |
| 🛢️ US state-backed critical-minerals champions win | commodities | ▲ LONG | MP | 2025-08-29 → 2026-08-29 | WRONG | -21.1% | -41.7% |
| 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem | tech | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2024-02-23 → 2026-08-23 | WRONG | -172.9% | -228.2% |
| 📈 Robinhood keeps compounding — product velocity plus retail loyalty | equities | ▲ LONG | HOOD | 2025-08-15 → 2026-08-15 | WRONG | -16.3% | -38.3% |
| 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2025-08-09 → 2026-08-09 | WRONG | -22.9% | -45.9% |
| 📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers | equities | ▲ LONG | XYZ | 2021-08-06 → 2026-08-06 | WRONG | -71.3% | -157.1% |
| 🤖 Apple licenses an outside frontier model (Gavin's pick: xAI/Grok) rather than building or bolting one on | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2025-07-19 → 2026-07-19 | RIGHT | +57.7% | +38.2% |
| 🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years | tech | ▲ LONG | IRDM | 2021-07-16 → 2026-07-16 | HALF | +34.7% | -51.6% |
| 🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps | tech | ▼ SHORT | BKNG | 2025-07-11 → 2026-07-11 | HALF | +21.3% | -1.1% |
| ⚡ The US power bottleneck is turbines, transmission and storage, not generation | energy | ▲ LONG | GEV | 2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 | RIGHT | +110.5% | +89.2% |
| 📈 Adobe takes the AI valuation retrade before Figma does | equities | ▼ SHORT | ADBE | 2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 | RIGHT | +41.7% | +20.4% |
| 🏛️ State AI-regulation patchwork advantages incumbents over startups | politics-market | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 | WRONG | -20.9% | -42.2% |
| 📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash | equities | ▼ SHORT | SLG | 2025-06-28 → 2026-06-28 | HALF | +12.2% | -7.1% |
| 🏛️ Taiwan's US protection expires as fabs onshore — TSMC carries the risk | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | TSM | 2023-06-24 → 2026-06-24 | WRONG | -359.4% | -435.9% |
| 🤖 Consumption-based software pricing destroys the business — Snowflake is the case study | tech | ▼ SHORT | SNOW | 2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 | WRONG | -8.7% | -34.5% |
| 📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers | equities | ▼ SHORT | RSP | 2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 | WRONG | -19.1% | -44.9% |
| 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle | equities | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 | WRONG | -48.5% | -74.3% |
| 📈 Generative video (Veo 3) collapses Hollywood inside a year | equities | ▼ SHORT | WBD | 2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 | WRONG | -145.3% | -171.1% |
| 🤖 AI value migrates from apps to the vertically integrated hardware/OS layer | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2024-06-14 → 2026-06-14 | HALF | +38.2% | -1.8% |
| 🤖 Enterprises tune and self-host open-source models instead of paying for proprietary APIs | tech | ▲ LONG | META | 2024-06-14 → 2026-06-14 | HALF | +13.1% | -26.9% |
| ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda | energy | ▲ LONG | USO | 2025-06-13 → 2026-06-13 | RIGHT | +56.4% | +30.7% |
| 🏛️ Gulf capital realigns to a US bloc, displacing China's Belt and Road | politics-market | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 | RIGHT | +66.2% | +40.6% |
| 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices | rates | ▼ SHORT | TLT | 2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 | WRONG | -1.6% | -27.3% |
| 🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | XPH | 2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 | WRONG | -40.2% | -65.9% |
| 📈 Asset-light domestic services platforms are the tariff-immune trade | equities | ▲ LONG | UBER | 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 | WRONG | -10.9% | -39.5% |
| 🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | AMZN | 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 | WRONG | -41.2% | -69.8% |
| 📈 Trans-Pacific container volume collapse seizes up the physical logistics economy | equities | ▼ SHORT | MATX | 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 | WRONG | -55.3% | -83.9% |
| 🤖 Starship gives Starlink a launch monopoly that squeezes legacy satcom | tech | ▼ SHORT | VSAT | 2023-04-21 → 2026-04-21 | WRONG | -74.9% | -152.4% |
| 🏛️ Federal research funding retreats from universities | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | TMO | 2025-04-19 → 2026-04-19 | WRONG | -25.3% | -65.1% |
| 🏛️ Nvidia's Asia revenue is diverted China demand | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2025-04-19 → 2026-04-19 | WRONG | -108.2% | -147.9% |
| 🤖 Own the top 30% of global tech and hold it five to ten years | tech | ▲ LONG | QQQ | 2021-04-17 → 2026-04-17 | RIGHT | +97.3% | +14.2% |
| 🌍 US assets reprice with an emerging-market risk premium | macro | ▼ SHORT | UUP | 2025-04-11 → 2026-04-11 | WRONG | -3.4% | -32.1% |
| 📈 Newsmax's post-IPO meme premium reverts | equities | ▼ SHORT | NMAX | 2025-04-05 → 2026-04-05 | RIGHT | +88.0% | +56.4% |
| 🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | MSFT | 2025-04-05 → 2026-04-05 | WRONG | -5.2% | -36.7% |
| 📈 Nvidia's receivables build is the Blackwell transition, not vendor financing | equities | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2025-03-29 → 2026-03-29 | RIGHT | +54.6% | +40.0% |
| 🌍 Red Sea reopening contains the freight-driven inflation impulse | macro | ▼ SHORT | ZIM | 2025-03-29 → 2026-03-29 | WRONG | -93.8% | -108.4% |
| 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation | rates | ▲ LONG | KRE | 2025-03-22 → 2026-03-22 | HALF | +10.0% | -4.3% |
| 🏛️ Florida's cultivated-meat ban spreads to other ranching states before federal preemption undoes it | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | BYND | 2024-03-15 → 2026-03-15 | RIGHT | +91.1% | +58.4% |
| 🏛️ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get taken out of conservatorship | politics-market | ▲ LONG | FNMA | 2025-03-15 → 2026-03-15 | WRONG | +4.8% | -13.3% |
| ⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons | energy | ▲ LONG | TAN | 2025-03-08 → 2026-03-08 | RIGHT | +63.7% | +42.3% |
| 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt | macro | ▲ LONG | TLT | 2025-03-08 → 2026-03-08 | WRONG | +1.5% | -19.8% |
| 🪙 Memecoins are negative-sum rug-pull machines | crypto | ▼ SHORT | cg:dogecoin | 2025-02-21 → 2026-02-21 | RIGHT | +58.9% | +42.6% |
| 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status | macro | ▲ LONG | UUP | 2025-02-21 → 2026-02-21 | WRONG | -3.7% | -19.9% |
| 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down | politics-market | ▲ LONG | XRT | 2025-02-15 → 2026-02-15 | HALF | +11.7% | -1.1% |
| 🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments | commodities | ▼ SHORT | ADM | 2025-02-15 → 2026-02-15 | WRONG | -55.6% | -68.4% |
| 🏛️ Carried interest loophole gets closed in the Trump tax bill | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | BX | 2025-02-07 → 2026-02-07 | RIGHT | +21.5% | +5.2% |
| 📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class | equities | ▲ LONG | LLY | 2025-02-07 → 2026-02-07 | RIGHT | +21.4% | +5.1% |
| 🌍 Risk-off window: November to February | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2025-11-07 → 2026-02-07 | WRONG | -3.2% | -6.5% |
| 🤖 DeepSeek R1 was distilled from OpenAI, not a clean $6M cost breakthrough | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2025-01-31 → 2026-01-31 | RIGHT | +59.2% | +42.9% |
| 📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords | equities | ▼ SHORT | JBGS | 2025-01-31 → 2026-01-31 | WRONG | -13.0% | -29.3% |
| 🏛️ Washington starts taking equity and royalties in exchange for permits and grants | politics-market | ▲ LONG | INTC | 2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 | RIGHT | +122.1% | +105.8% |
| 🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment | tech | ▼ SHORT | ORCL | 2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 | WRONG | -13.1% | -29.4% |
| 🤖 DeepSeek proves frontier-model costs are collapsing | tech | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 | WRONG | -58.5% | -74.9% |
| 📈 AI eats middle management before the entry level | equities | ▼ SHORT | ACN | 2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 | HALF | +18.9% | +2.9% |
| 📈 Higher education's value unwinds, starting with the MBA | equities | ▼ SHORT | LOPE | 2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 | WRONG | -4.2% | -20.2% |
| 🏛️ Wildfire value-at-risk pushes fire-hardened building code national | politics-market | ▲ LONG | JHX | 2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 | WRONG | -31.7% | -47.7% |
| 🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences | politics-market | ▲ LONG | NYT | 2023-01-13 → 2026-01-13 | RIGHT | +116.3% | +35.2% |
| 🏛️ Arctic shipping-lane control is the real Greenland play | politics-market | ▲ LONG | ITA | 2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 | RIGHT | +60.4% | +39.7% |
| 📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment | equities | ▲ LONG | META | 2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 | HALF | +7.7% | -13.1% |
| 📈 California's suppressed insurance rates break the market and land on the taxpayer | equities | ▼ SHORT | KIE | 2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 | WRONG | -11.3% | -32.1% |
| 🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset | tech | ▲ LONG | MU | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | RIGHT | +218.8% | +202.7% |
| ⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025 | energy | ▲ LONG | URA | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | RIGHT | +64.8% | +48.7% |
| 🤖 Google's AI comeback pays off in 2025 | tech | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | RIGHT | +60.7% | +44.6% |
| 📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025 | equities | ▼ SHORT | BAH | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | RIGHT | +33.6% | +17.6% |
| 📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset | equities | ▲ LONG | KWEB | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | RIGHT | +32.7% | +16.6% |
| 🤖 We run out of compute again in 2025 | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | RIGHT | +26.4% | +10.3% |
| 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware | tech | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | HALF | +6.6% | -9.5% |
| 📈 Traditional auto OEMs collapse into mega-mergers | equities | ▼ SHORT | STLA | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | +4.4% | -11.7% |
| 📈 Residential real estate faces continued headwinds in 2025 | equities | ▼ SHORT | ITB | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | +3.7% | -12.4% |
| 🤖 The software industrial complex cracks in 2025 | tech | ▼ SHORT | IGV | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | -0.9% | -17.0% |
| 🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS) | macro | ▼ SHORT | XLF | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | -15.0% | -31.1% |
| 📈 Mag-7 concentration unwinds — trillions in drawdown | equities | ▼ SHORT | MAGS | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | -17.0% | -33.1% |
| 🪙 Dollar stablecoins are 2025's biggest business winner | crypto | ▲ LONG | COIN | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | -17.8% | -33.9% |
| 📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025 | equities | ▼ SHORT | BA | 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 | WRONG | -33.4% | -49.5% |
| 🪙 Stablecoins become the standard US payment rail and crush the card take rate | crypto | ▲ LONG | COIN | 2024-12-20 → 2025-12-20 | WRONG | -12.1% | -28.5% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | ITA | 2024-08-16 → 2025-12-16 | WRONG | -46.1% | -70.4% |
| 🛢️ Targeted tariffs act as a reverse subsidy that makes US critical-minerals supply chains investable | commodities | ▲ LONG | MP | 2024-12-13 → 2025-12-13 | RIGHT | +192.5% | +178.3% |
| 🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital | macro | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2025-06-13 → 2025-12-13 | RIGHT | +14.8% | +0.0% |
| 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies | rates | ▲ LONG | SHY | 2025-06-13 → 2025-12-13 | WRONG | +2.5% | -12.4% |
| 📈 The exit drought is a valuation overhang, not antitrust or markets | equities | ▼ SHORT | GS | 2024-12-13 → 2025-12-13 | WRONG | -54.8% | -69.0% |
| 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years | rates | ▲ LONG | TLT | 2023-12-08 → 2025-12-08 | WRONG | +1.0% | -51.4% |
| 📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale | equities | ▼ SHORT | MSTR | 2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 | RIGHT | +51.0% | +36.2% |
| 🤖 Pre-training scaling laws still hold — Colossus and Grok 3 are the proof | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 | RIGHT | +31.4% | +16.7% |
| 🏛️ US compute export controls keep China off the AI frontier from 2025 | politics-market | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 | RIGHT | +31.4% | +16.7% |
| 🏛️ Atkins SEC loosens accredited-investor gating and retail money reaches private markets | politics-market | ▲ LONG | BX | 2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 | WRONG | -15.4% | -30.1% |
| 🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2022-12-03 → 2025-12-03 | RIGHT | +96.7% | +18.4% |
| 📈 Fat-cell epigenetic memory makes obesity therapy chronic | equities | ▲ LONG | LLY | 2024-11-23 → 2025-11-23 | RIGHT | +41.4% | +29.8% |
| 📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around | equities | ▲ LONG | KRC | 2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 | HALF | +12.6% | -3.0% |
| 📈 Deregulation re-rates the regulated old economy, not tech | equities | ▲ LONG | XLV | 2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 | HALF | +8.9% | -6.8% |
| 🤖 Forced KYC on cloud compute buyers dents hyperscaler revenue | tech | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2025-04-26 → 2025-10-26 | WRONG | -62.2% | -85.8% |
| 🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable | tech | ▲ LONG | META | 2024-10-25 → 2025-10-25 | RIGHT | +29.2% | +10.8% |
| 🏛️ CLARITY Act market-structure bill clears the Senate and is signed by October | politics-market | ▲ LONG | COIN | 2025-07-19 → 2025-10-19 | WRONG | -18.8% | -24.7% |
| 📈 Uber-Expedia super-app cross-sell doesn't pencil | equities | ▼ SHORT | EXPE | 2024-10-18 → 2025-10-18 | WRONG | -35.4% | -50.5% |
| ⚡ US SMR buildout stalls on NIMBY and unproven technology | energy | ▼ SHORT | SMR | 2024-10-18 → 2025-10-18 | WRONG | -143.0% | -158.0% |
| 📈 Venture has to shrink to clear public-market alpha - fund sizes and GP count come down | equities | ▼ SHORT | BX | 2024-10-11 → 2025-10-11 | WRONG | -3.2% | -17.2% |
| 📈 Pro sports franchise valuations have not peaked | equities | ▲ LONG | MSGS | 2024-10-03 → 2025-10-03 | HALF | +8.1% | -11.2% |
| 📈 PBM margin model breaks on drug-price transparency | equities | ▼ SHORT | CVS | 2024-10-03 → 2025-10-03 | WRONG | -28.8% | -48.1% |
| 📈 Agents replace the entry-level analyst — static team size at scale | equities | ▼ SHORT | RHI | 2024-09-27 → 2025-09-27 | RIGHT | +47.1% | +29.9% |
| 📈 Blue-collar trades boom and a rising premium on human service | equities | ▲ LONG | PWR | 2024-09-27 → 2025-09-27 | RIGHT | +36.8% | +19.6% |
| 📈 Rate cuts plus the AI wave start a new venture cycle - a golden era, not a bubble | equities | ▲ LONG | IPO | 2024-09-20 → 2025-09-20 | RIGHT | +24.8% | +6.5% |
| 🤖 Next year's foundation model commoditizes this year's AI app-layer startups | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2024-09-20 → 2025-09-20 | HALF | +19.9% | +1.7% |
| 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2024-09-20 → 2025-09-20 | WRONG | -18.2% | -36.4% |
| 📈 Airbnb re-rates from tech multiple to consumer cyclical | equities | ▼ SHORT | ABNB | 2024-09-06 → 2025-09-06 | WRONG | -8.3% | -29.6% |
| 🤖 A CUDA transpiler breaks Nvidia's software lock-in | tech | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2024-09-06 → 2025-09-06 | WRONG | -62.5% | -83.8% |
| 🏛️ RFK's MAHA agenda puts a policy overhang on processed food and soda | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | KO | 2024-08-30 → 2025-08-30 | WRONG | +2.0% | -13.8% |
| 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2024-08-23 → 2025-08-23 | WRONG | -16.2% | -32.5% |
| 📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy | equities | ▼ SHORT | REZ | 2023-08-18 → 2025-08-18 | WRONG | -23.5% | -74.8% |
| 🏛️ A Google breakup unlocks value - sum of the parts beats the whole | politics-market | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 | RIGHT | +25.7% | +8.2% |
| 📈 Starbucks is a sugar company - GLP-1s and sugar awareness are the real problem | equities | ▼ SHORT | SBUX | 2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 | WRONG | +2.0% | -15.5% |
| 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority | equities | ▲ LONG | BXP | 2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 | WRONG | -1.3% | -18.8% |
| 🤖 Apple launches its own search engine and goes head-to-head with Google | tech | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 | WRONG | -25.7% | -43.2% |
| 🏛️ Harris's federal food price-gouging ban is a discredited price control | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | KR | 2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 | WRONG | -33.7% | -51.2% |
| 📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts | equities | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 | RIGHT | +21.0% | +0.0% |
| 🌍 BOJ is trapped — Japan can never raise rates and the yen keeps depreciating | macro | ▼ SHORT | FXY | 2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 | WRONG | +1.1% | -19.9% |
| 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power | equities | ▼ SHORT | XLI | 2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 | WRONG | -23.1% | -44.2% |
| 🏛️ Google's search-monopoly remedy is a broad consent decree, not a breakup | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 | WRONG | -23.7% | -44.7% |
| 📈 You cannot build durable public equity value on a bet-making business | equities | ▼ SHORT | BX | 2024-08-02 → 2025-08-02 | WRONG | -30.8% | -48.9% |
| 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment | equities | ▲ LONG | PLTR | 2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 | RIGHT | +484.2% | +465.8% |
| 📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve | equities | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 | HALF | +16.2% | -2.2% |
| 📈 Fox's neocon drift misaligns it with its own audience — bad for the business | equities | ▼ SHORT | FOXA | 2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 | WRONG | -52.8% | -71.3% |
| 📈 CrowdStrike's outage does lasting damage to its franchise | equities | ▼ SHORT | CRWD | 2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 | WRONG | -82.7% | -101.1% |
| 🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth | tech | ▲ LONG | CRWD | 2024-07-19 → 2025-07-19 | RIGHT | +56.1% | +40.3% |
| 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2024-07-19 → 2025-07-19 | WRONG | -4.7% | -20.4% |
| 🏛️ Socialist policy turn across the industrialized democracies | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | EWQ | 2024-07-12 → 2025-07-12 | WRONG | -12.8% | -25.6% |
| 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally | politics-market | ▲ LONG | ITA | 2024-07-04 → 2025-07-04 | RIGHT | +42.1% | +28.0% |
| 🏛️ Immunity plus Fisher rulings collapse the January 6 prosecution | politics-market | ▲ LONG | DJT | 2024-07-04 → 2025-07-04 | WRONG | -35.0% | -49.2% |
| 🏛️ Microsoft's bundle playbook gets an antitrust remedy | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | MSFT | 2024-06-29 → 2025-06-29 | WRONG | -9.4% | -23.6% |
| ⚡ AI datacenter demand needs double-to-triple current US electricity generation | energy | ▲ LONG | XLU | 2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 | RIGHT | +19.3% | +8.9% |
| 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax | politics-market | ▲ LONG | IWM | 2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 | HALF | +5.8% | -4.5% |
| 🌍 A second-term tariff-plus-tax-cut policy mix stokes stagflation | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 | WRONG | -10.3% | -20.7% |
| 📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly | equities | ▼ SHORT | NDAQ | 2024-06-07 → 2025-06-07 | WRONG | -47.6% | -61.3% |
| 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:bitcoin | 2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 | RIGHT | +55.0% | +41.9% |
| 📈 Founder-CEO public companies outperform any index | equities | ▲ LONG | CRM | 2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 | HALF | +13.9% | +0.7% |
| 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework | politics-market | ▲ LONG | COIN | 2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 | HALF | +9.2% | -4.0% |
| 🤖 Nvidia forward-integrates into cloud and attacks the hyperscalers | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2024-05-24 → 2025-05-24 | RIGHT | +23.4% | +12.6% |
| 🌍 Milei's fiscal austerity makes Argentina the reform trade | macro | ▲ LONG | ARGT | 2024-05-17 → 2025-05-17 | RIGHT | +47.2% | +33.6% |
| 🛢️ Boosted breeding delivers a step-change in crop yield | commodities | ▼ SHORT | DBA | 2024-05-17 → 2025-05-17 | WRONG | -21.1% | -34.8% |
| 🤖 AlphaFold 3 turns drug discovery into software — Google/Isomorphic captures it | tech | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2024-05-10 → 2025-05-10 | WRONG | -9.0% | -18.7% |
| 🤖 AI agents disintermediate consumer app interfaces | tech | ▼ SHORT | DASH | 2024-05-10 → 2025-05-10 | WRONG | -59.8% | -69.5% |
| 🤖 AI-designed open-source gene editors break the CRISPR patent toll | tech | ▲ LONG | ARKG | 2024-05-03 → 2025-05-03 | WRONG | -9.5% | -21.7% |
| 📈 Tesla's 40% drawdown is mispriced against an on-plan Master Plan | equities | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 | RIGHT | +69.3% | +59.6% |
| 🏛️ A Democrat trifecta prices in the unrealized-gains wealth tax | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 | WRONG | -1.5% | -11.2% |
| ⚡ 100 million homes become mini-utilities and strand incumbent utility debt | energy | ▲ LONG | TAN | 2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 | WRONG | -26.4% | -36.1% |
| 🏛️ Section 174 R&D amortization crushes small R&D-heavy companies | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | IWM | 2024-04-19 → 2025-04-19 | WRONG | +2.3% | -5.3% |
| 📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet | equities | ▲ LONG | DKNG | 2024-04-19 → 2025-04-19 | WRONG | -17.4% | -25.0% |
| 🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line | politics-market | ▲ LONG | KTOS | 2024-04-12 → 2025-04-12 | RIGHT | +82.5% | +76.7% |
| 📈 Shrinking global equity float lifts prices regardless of fundamentals | equities | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2024-04-12 → 2025-04-12 | HALF | +5.8% | +0.0% |
| 📈 Google's rumoured HubSpot bid doesn't get done | equities | ▼ SHORT | HUBS | 2024-04-05 → 2025-04-05 | RIGHT | +25.1% | +26.4% |
| 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting | equities | ▲ LONG | HOOD | 2024-03-29 → 2025-03-29 | RIGHT | +116.0% | +108.2% |
| 📈 Trump Media's meme premium unwinds once the float opens up | equities | ▼ SHORT | DJT | 2024-03-29 → 2025-03-29 | RIGHT | +59.2% | +51.5% |
| 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis | rates | ▼ SHORT | TLT | 2023-03-24 → 2025-03-24 | HALF | +9.3% | -39.7% |
| 🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | DJT | 2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 | RIGHT | +45.2% | +35.6% |
| 📈 Gene-edited pig organs unlock an effectively infinite organ supply | equities | ▲ LONG | UTHR | 2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 | RIGHT | +31.6% | +22.0% |
| 🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle | tech | ▲ LONG | BOTZ | 2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 | WRONG | -5.5% | -15.1% |
| 🏛️ Patriot Act 2.0 - the foreign-adversary app law becomes a divestiture weapon against domestic platforms | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | RUM | 2024-03-15 → 2025-03-15 | WRONG | -4.0% | -15.5% |
| 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention | politics-market | ▲ LONG | META | 2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 | RIGHT | +24.0% | +10.0% |
| 🏛️ OpenAI's nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion becomes a tax and litigation overhang | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | MSFT | 2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 | WRONG | +2.4% | -11.6% |
| 📈 Peak Apple: a GDP-levered cyclical with no product optionality left | equities | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 | WRONG | -40.7% | -54.7% |
| 🪙 Spot ETF approvals extend past Bitcoin to Ethereum | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | 2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 | WRONG | -43.4% | -57.4% |
| 📈 AI agents gut the outsourced customer-support industry | equities | ▼ SHORT | CNXC | 2024-03-01 → 2025-03-01 | RIGHT | +37.0% | +19.6% |
| 📈 Gemini blunder forces a Meta-style purge — GOOGL at 17x is the buy point | equities | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2024-03-01 → 2025-03-01 | RIGHT | +24.6% | +7.3% |
| 🤖 Gemini's ideological tuning breaks Google's AI product | tech | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2024-02-23 → 2025-02-23 | WRONG | -25.2% | -44.9% |
| 🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2024-02-16 → 2025-02-16 | WRONG | +1.6% | -22.0% |
| 📈 Arm's post-earnings rip is a float squeeze, not a repricing | equities | ▼ SHORT | ARM | 2024-02-16 → 2025-02-16 | WRONG | -24.3% | -47.9% |
| 🤖 Inference cost is the gate on AI search — 10x too expensive today | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2023-02-11 → 2025-02-11 | RIGHT | +509.9% | +459.2% |
| 📈 Meta's profit engine plus buybacks makes its AI option value free | equities | ▲ LONG | META | 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 | RIGHT | +53.2% | +31.8% |
| 🤖 YouTube is the largest proprietary training corpus on earth - Google's insurmountable AI moat | tech | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 | HALF | +24.8% | +3.4% |
| 📈 Snap's zero-vote governance and stock-comp dilution keep destroying shareholder value | equities | ▼ SHORT | SNAP | 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 | WRONG | +1.7% | -19.7% |
| 📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts | equities | ▲ LONG | ITB | 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 | WRONG | -0.0% | -21.4% |
| 🤖 OpenAI keeps the consumer AI lead through a developer network effect | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 | WRONG | -1.8% | -23.2% |
| 📈 Trade the second-order cost of immersive tech, not Apple's revenue | equities | ▲ LONG | MTCH | 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 | WRONG | -4.0% | -25.4% |
| 📈 Startup mass extinction event in late 2023 and 2024 | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2023-02-04 → 2025-02-04 | WRONG | -61.7% | -112.7% |
| 📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders | equities | ▼ SHORT | HTGC | 2023-02-04 → 2025-02-04 | WRONG | -78.5% | -129.5% |
| 📈 Crony managerialism: debt-funded buybacks and EPS-linked comp produce marginal companies | equities | ▼ SHORT | GM | 2024-02-02 → 2025-02-02 | WRONG | -28.4% | -51.7% |
| 🏛️ Delaware voiding Elon's package chills performance comp and drives charter flight | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | TSLA | 2024-02-02 → 2025-02-02 | WRONG | -115.3% | -138.6% |
| 📈 Fintech is fin, not tech — margins and multiples reckon | equities | ▼ SHORT | FINX | 2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 | WRONG | -36.3% | -62.6% |
| 📈 Ad-supported legacy media is structurally dead | equities | ▼ SHORT | BZFD | 2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 | WRONG | -239.7% | -266.0% |
| ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge | energy | ▲ LONG | URA | 2023-01-20 → 2025-01-20 | HALF | +37.0% | -18.2% |
| 🤖 The streaming churn war's only winners are Google and Meta | tech | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 | RIGHT | +34.4% | +8.9% |
| 📈 Regulatory certification makes sole-source aerospace suppliers pricing-power machines | equities | ▲ LONG | TDG | 2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 | RIGHT | +33.8% | +8.4% |
| 📈 Boeing is rotting because a duopoly has no accountability | equities | ▼ SHORT | BA | 2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 | HALF | +20.4% | -5.0% |
| 📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions | equities | ▼ SHORT | WBD | 2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 | HALF | +8.0% | -17.4% |
| 📈 Microplastics evidence pushes beverages out of PET | equities | ▲ LONG | BALL | 2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 | WRONG | -1.0% | -26.5% |
| 📈 Disney keeps politicizing its franchises and keeps flopping | equities | ▼ SHORT | DIS | 2024-01-13 → 2025-01-13 | WRONG | -17.2% | -41.2% |
| 🤖 Software without real lock-in loses its pricing power to AI-built clones | tech | ▼ SHORT | IGV | 2024-01-13 → 2025-01-13 | WRONG | -17.9% | -41.9% |
| 🪙 Bitcoin's most important year ever — ETFs take it mainstream | crypto | ▲ LONG | BTC-USD | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | RIGHT | +132.1% | +105.0% |
| 📈 Consumer comfort services (DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber) best asset of 2024 | equities | ▲ LONG | DASH | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | RIGHT | +77.7% | +50.6% |
| 🤖 Apple makes huge AI gains in 2024 (contrarian) | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | RIGHT | +32.7% | +5.6% |
| 📈 Long public software, short late-stage private SaaS | equities | ▲ LONG | IGV | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | HALF | +28.0% | +1.0% |
| 📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024 | equities | ▲ LONG | RSP | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | HALF | +13.7% | -13.3% |
| 🤖 Training-data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) win 2024 | tech | ▲ LONG | NYT | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | HALF | +12.0% | -15.0% |
| 🛢️ Uranium (URA) is the best-performing asset of 2024 | commodities | ▲ LONG | URA | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | HALF | +10.0% | -17.0% |
| ⚡ Energy among 2024's top performers on conflict escalation | energy | ▲ LONG | XLE | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | HALF | +7.5% | -19.6% |
| 🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024 | commodities | ▲ LONG | DBC | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | WRONG | +3.9% | -23.1% |
| 🌍 German economy is 2024's biggest business loser | macro | ▼ SHORT | EWG | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | WRONG | -12.4% | -39.5% |
| 🏦 Regional banks still sick — Fed must extend BTFP | rates | ▼ SHORT | KRE | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | WRONG | -19.7% | -46.8% |
| 🤖 Smartphone manufacturers slow as consumers skip generations | tech | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | WRONG | -32.7% | -59.7% |
| 🤖 Inference cost collapse deflates OpenAI, LLM startups and Nvidia's multiple | tech | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 | WRONG | -186.1% | -213.1% |
| 🏛️ Third-party candidates take a Perot-plus share of the 2024 vote, at Biden's expense | politics-market | ▲ LONG | DJT | 2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 | RIGHT | +106.2% | +79.4% |
| 🪙 Solana's post-FTX recovery runs - the besties are still holding | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:solana | 2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 | RIGHT | +78.5% | +51.7% |
| 🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation | macro | ▲ LONG | ZIM | 2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 | RIGHT | +154.2% | +127.6% |
| ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock | energy | ▲ LONG | USO | 2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 | WRONG | +4.1% | -22.6% |
| 🏛️ Litigation forces the app-store duopoly to open up and cut the 30% rake | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2023-12-16 → 2024-12-16 | WRONG | -28.8% | -58.6% |
| 🏛️ Federal agencies run a coordinated regulatory campaign against Elon's companies | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | TSLA | 2023-12-16 → 2024-12-16 | WRONG | -83.7% | -113.5% |
| 🌍 Conforming-loan expansion inflates home equity into a HELOC-fuelled bust | macro | ▼ SHORT | ITB | 2021-12-11 → 2024-12-11 | WRONG | -45.7% | -81.7% |
| 🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates | tech | ▲ LONG | CRM | 2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 | RIGHT | +45.0% | +11.1% |
| 🏛️ Speculative-competition antitrust blocks chill tech M&A | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GS | 2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 | WRONG | -75.1% | -108.9% |
| 📈 Record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season drives catastrophe losses | equities | ▼ SHORT | KIE | 2024-06-07 → 2024-12-07 | WRONG | -20.6% | -35.1% |
| 🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November | politics-market | ▲ LONG | DJT | 2024-08-16 → 2024-11-16 | RIGHT | +21.9% | +15.9% |
| 🏛️ Biden stays the nominee - there is no mechanism to remove him | politics-market | ▲ LONG | DJT | 2024-02-16 → 2024-11-16 | WRONG | -42.1% | -60.5% |
| 🏛️ The Walz pick is a net negative for Harris — stolen valor is the live risk | politics-market | ▲ LONG | DJT | 2024-08-09 → 2024-11-09 | RIGHT | +21.8% | +9.2% |
| 📈 Hidden hedge-fund leverage forces another wave of equity selling | equities | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2024-08-09 → 2024-11-09 | WRONG | -12.6% | -25.1% |
| 🌍 Risk-off overhang lifts - equities and high-beta growth rally | macro | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 | RIGHT | +33.1% | +0.0% |
| 🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India | politics-market | ▲ LONG | INDA | 2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 | HALF | +24.3% | -8.9% |
| 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins | equities | ▼ SHORT | SLG | 2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 | WRONG | -128.9% | -162.1% |
| 📈 Profitability plus buybacks is the setup for the tech turn | equities | ▲ LONG | UBER | 2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 | RIGHT | +88.3% | +45.4% |
| 📈 Uninsurable coastal property gets repriced down | equities | ▼ SHORT | LEN | 2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 | WRONG | -69.1% | -112.0% |
| 📈 Cruise's robotaxi program collapses under GM | equities | ▼ SHORT | GM | 2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 | WRONG | -93.4% | -136.3% |
| 🏛️ EU's Digital Services Act becomes a binding censorship and compliance regime on the platforms | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2023-10-20 → 2024-10-20 | WRONG | -20.8% | -61.5% |
| 📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade | equities | ▼ SHORT | LLY | 2023-10-20 → 2024-10-20 | WRONG | -58.1% | -98.7% |
| 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech | politics-market | ▲ LONG | AVAV | 2023-10-13 → 2024-10-13 | RIGHT | +93.1% | +57.0% |
| 🏛️ Oct-7 derails Israel-Saudi normalization and reprices regional risk | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | EIS | 2023-10-13 → 2024-10-13 | WRONG | -38.3% | -74.4% |
| 📈 The Sphere becomes a replicable immersive-venue format | equities | ▲ LONG | SPHR | 2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 | HALF | +19.6% | -13.6% |
| 🏛️ Record border encounters force a bipartisan enforcement buildout | politics-market | ▲ LONG | ESLT | 2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 | WRONG | +3.5% | -29.6% |
| 🤖 Tesla's fleet-data moat wins general autonomy; Cruise and Waymo stay geofenced | tech | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 | WRONG | -7.3% | -40.4% |
| 🏛️ Harris is the only feasible replacement if Biden leaves the ticket | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | DJT | 2024-07-04 → 2024-10-04 | RIGHT | +43.4% | +39.8% |
| 📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts | equities | ▲ LONG | SHOP | 2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 | RIGHT | +48.3% | +14.5% |
| 📈 The UAW deal is existential for the unionized US automakers | equities | ▼ SHORT | F | 2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 | HALF | +6.2% | -27.6% |
| 📈 Take-rate decay caps the GTV marketplaces — model Instacart down, not up | equities | ▼ SHORT | CART | 2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 | WRONG | -40.5% | -74.3% |
| 📈 Venture's alpha does not clear liquid alternatives — LP money leaves the asset class | equities | ▼ SHORT | BX | 2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 | WRONG | -46.4% | -80.2% |
| 🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy | macro | ▼ SHORT | EWG | 2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 | WRONG | -21.1% | -47.8% |
| ⚡ US nuclear newbuild stays blocked by regulation — none of the new reactors ship | energy | ▼ SHORT | SMR | 2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 | WRONG | -31.5% | -58.1% |
| 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging | equities | ▼ SHORT | SFTBY | 2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 | WRONG | -31.7% | -61.2% |
| ⚡ Energy-transition capital flows under a national-security frame, not a climate frame | energy | ▲ LONG | MP | 2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 | WRONG | -34.0% | -63.5% |
| 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon | tech | ▼ SHORT | NVDA | 2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 | WRONG | -181.2% | -210.8% |
| 📈 Payment processors are middlemen with no pricing power | equities | ▼ SHORT | PYPL | 2023-08-18 → 2024-08-18 | WRONG | -14.4% | -43.1% |
| 🌍 Soft-landing rally underprices the lag risk | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2023-08-18 → 2024-08-18 | WRONG | -28.8% | -57.5% |
| 🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination | politics-market | ▲ LONG | DJT | 2022-08-13 → 2024-08-13 | WRONG | -19.1% | -49.3% |
| 🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand | macro | ▼ SHORT | FXI | 2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 | HALF | +6.2% | -15.1% |
| 📈 Down-round IPOs wipe out the late-stage preference stack | equities | ▼ SHORT | SFTBY | 2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 | WRONG | -10.3% | -31.6% |
| 📈 The equity beta trade is done — software back at fair value, alpha only from selection | equities | ▼ SHORT | IGV | 2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 | WRONG | -20.9% | -42.2% |
| 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them | equities | ▼ SHORT | BX | 2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 | WRONG | -37.0% | -58.3% |
| 🤖 LK-99 is a diamagnet, not a room-temperature superconductor | tech | ▼ SHORT | AMSC | 2023-08-04 → 2024-08-04 | WRONG | -107.8% | -128.7% |
| 📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market | equities | ▲ LONG | NVO | 2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 | RIGHT | +63.7% | +41.7% |
| 📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie | equities | ▼ SHORT | WBD | 2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 | RIGHT | +32.4% | +10.4% |
| 🤖 In-silico materials discovery cracks cheap battery chemistry | tech | ▲ LONG | LIT | 2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 | WRONG | -38.7% | -60.7% |
| 🏛️ Courts reverse agency overreach - the regulatory premium on tech and crypto compresses | politics-market | ▲ LONG | COIN | 2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 | RIGHT | +107.0% | +80.6% |
| 📈 Record Atlantic sea-surface temperatures drive the biggest hurricane season ever | equities | ▼ SHORT | KIE | 2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 | WRONG | -27.7% | -54.1% |
| 🏛️ Structural breakup replaces merger-blocking as the big-tech remedy | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 | WRONG | -47.7% | -74.1% |
| 🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program | politics-market | ▲ LONG | BXP | 2023-07-09 → 2024-07-09 | HALF | +9.9% | -18.3% |
| 🤖 Data-infra platforms buy the AI tool chain — more M&A at premium multiples | tech | ▲ LONG | SNOW | 2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 | WRONG | -19.3% | -43.9% |
| 🏛️ Affirmative-action ruling propagates into corporate DEI and ESG | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | ESGU | 2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 | WRONG | -24.1% | -48.7% |
| 📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40% | equities | ▼ SHORT | TSLA | 2023-06-24 → 2024-06-24 | HALF | +24.3% | -3.3% |
| ⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain | energy | ▲ LONG | F | 2023-06-24 → 2024-06-24 | WRONG | -7.5% | -35.1% |
| 🪙 Crypto collapse triggers a multi-year enforcement and litigation wave | crypto | ▼ SHORT | COIN | 2022-06-24 → 2024-06-24 | WRONG | -238.6% | -281.9% |
| 🤖 Meta's Project 92 takes Twitter's slot by paying creators and handing back data control | tech | ▲ LONG | META | 2023-06-16 → 2024-06-16 | RIGHT | +79.8% | +55.0% |
| 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks | equities | ▲ LONG | IPO | 2023-06-16 → 2024-06-16 | HALF | +21.5% | -3.4% |
| 📈 Star athletes take the equity off the sports owners | equities | ▼ SHORT | MSGS | 2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 | WRONG | -5.5% | -30.8% |
| 🪙 SEC suits drive the US crypto exchanges offshore | crypto | ▼ SHORT | COIN | 2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 | WRONG | -394.1% | -419.4% |
| 📈 Model Y becomes the best-selling car in America | equities | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2023-05-26 → 2024-05-26 | WRONG | -7.2% | -35.1% |
| 🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge | tech | ▲ LONG | META | 2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 | RIGHT | +92.3% | +64.0% |
| 🏛️ PBMs, not pharma, are the real drug-price target | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | CVS | 2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 | HALF | +13.9% | -14.4% |
| 🤖 Apple's AR headset becomes the next compute platform | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 | HALF | +9.0% | -19.3% |
| 📈 Mortgage rate lock-in freezes housing turnover | equities | ▼ SHORT | Z | 2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 | WRONG | +2.8% | -25.5% |
| 📈 FTC merger-blocking chills early-stage biotech financing | equities | ▼ SHORT | XBI | 2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 | WRONG | -6.8% | -35.1% |
| 📈 Amazon's ad business passes AWS within three years | equities | ▲ LONG | AMZN | 2021-05-01 → 2024-05-01 | HALF | +5.7% | -19.3% |
| 📈 Cellular meat is uneconomic this cycle - alternative protein is a value trap | equities | ▼ SHORT | BYND | 2023-04-28 → 2024-04-28 | RIGHT | +52.7% | +28.8% |
| 🤖 AI collapses the cost of knowledge work to ten cents on the dollar | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2023-04-28 → 2024-04-28 | RIGHT | +33.3% | +9.4% |
| 🏛️ Defamation litigation wave hits media balance sheets | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | FOXA | 2023-04-21 → 2024-04-21 | HALF | +5.0% | -16.8% |
| 🏛️ An FDA for AI — model deployment gets licensed at the compute layer | politics-market | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2023-04-14 → 2024-04-14 | RIGHT | +48.7% | +23.0% |
| 🏛️ US capital gets walled off from Chinese AI and advanced tech | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | KWEB | 2023-04-07 → 2024-04-07 | HALF | +10.2% | -18.2% |
| 🤖 ChatGPT plugins make OpenAI the next great computing platform | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2023-03-31 → 2024-03-31 | RIGHT | +47.1% | +17.5% |
| 📈 Code-for-hire outsourcers displace white-collar labor first | equities | ▲ LONG | ACN | 2023-03-31 → 2024-03-31 | HALF | +23.1% | -6.5% |
| 🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue | tech | ▼ SHORT | ARKX | 2023-03-24 → 2024-03-24 | WRONG | -10.1% | -43.7% |
| 🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | XLF | 2023-03-24 → 2024-03-24 | WRONG | -36.0% | -69.6% |
| 🏦 Fed's bank funding facility only kicks the can — massive rate cuts are the exit | rates | ▲ LONG | TLT | 2023-03-17 → 2024-03-17 | WRONG | -9.9% | -42.5% |
| 📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks | equities | ▼ SHORT | KRE | 2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 | WRONG | -14.8% | -49.5% |
| 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated | crypto | ▼ SHORT | BTC-USD | 2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 | WRONG | -249.6% | -284.3% |
| 🏛️ Dominion's $1.6B defamation claim against Fox fails the actual-malice test | politics-market | ▲ LONG | FOXA | 2023-03-03 → 2024-03-03 | WRONG | -15.1% | -43.9% |
| 🏛️ East Palestine forces rail safety re-regulation and operator liability | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | NSC | 2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 | WRONG | -13.3% | -37.8% |
| 📈 Zantac carcinogen cover-up becomes a pharma liability reckoning | equities | ▼ SHORT | GSK | 2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 | WRONG | -21.6% | -46.1% |
| 🏛️ The AI trust-and-safety layer is the next censorship war | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | MSFT | 2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 | WRONG | -57.9% | -82.4% |
| 🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up | politics-market | ▲ LONG | ITA | 2023-02-11 → 2024-02-11 | HALF | +8.2% | -15.0% |
| 🤖 Google defends search by doubling TAC — margin traded for share | tech | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2023-02-11 → 2024-02-11 | WRONG | -57.5% | -80.7% |
| 📈 COVID vaccine reckoning collapses trust in vaccination | equities | ▼ SHORT | PFE | 2023-01-27 → 2024-01-27 | RIGHT | +34.0% | +12.1% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine reconstruction is the next contractor and infra-fund windfall | politics-market | ▲ LONG | CAT | 2023-01-27 → 2024-01-27 | HALF | +15.5% | -6.5% |
| 🏛️ TikTok crackdown impairs ByteDance and hands share back to US platforms | politics-market | ▲ LONG | META | 2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 | RIGHT | +175.1% | +151.4% |
| 🏛️ Debt-ceiling standoff resolves — they raise it and keep spending | politics-market | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 | RIGHT | +23.7% | +0.0% |
| 🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China | commodities | ▲ LONG | INDA | 2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 | HALF | +16.4% | -7.3% |
| 🤖 AI drug discovery hasn't lifted pharma hit rates — the M&A bid is falling | tech | ▼ SHORT | RXRX | 2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 | WRONG | -11.3% | -35.0% |
| 🤖 Meta's best move is capping the metaverse bet and reallocating to AI | tech | ▲ LONG | META | 2023-01-13 → 2024-01-13 | RIGHT | +173.4% | +151.9% |
| 🤖 Foundation models are a big-tech oligopoly - the substrate gets given away | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2023-01-13 → 2024-01-13 | RIGHT | +63.8% | +42.4% |
| 📈 Private capital concentrates in a few mega-GPs that take themselves public | equities | ▲ LONG | BX | 2022-01-08 → 2024-01-08 | RIGHT | +15.6% | +10.4% |
| 📈 Gig/supply platforms win 2023 as unemployment gets sticky | equities | ▲ LONG | UBER | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | RIGHT | +118.1% | +95.7% |
| 🤖 OpenAI is 2023's biggest winner — Microsoft deal inevitable | tech | ▲ LONG | MSFT | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | RIGHT | +65.0% | +42.5% |
| ⚡ US natural gas industry wins 2023 — Europe is now a captive LNG customer | energy | ▲ LONG | LNG | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | HALF | +18.5% | -3.9% |
| 🏦 Inflation stays sticky in 2023 — the wage chapter | rates | ▼ SHORT | TLT | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | HALF | +5.3% | -17.1% |
| 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 | rates | ▲ LONG | BIL | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | HALF | +5.0% | -17.4% |
| ⚡ Energy is overheated after 2022 and underperforms in 2023 | energy | ▼ SHORT | XLE | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -0.3% | -22.7% |
| 📈 Infrastructure-spend compounders are the best asset of 2023 | equities | ▲ LONG | TMO | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -0.4% | -22.8% |
| 🌍 2023 marks the beginning of the end of dollar reserve dominance | macro | ▼ SHORT | UUP | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -4.5% | -26.9% |
| 🏦 2023 is the year debt markets unravel — EM sovereigns first | rates | ▼ SHORT | EMB | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -5.6% | -28.0% |
| 🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class | rates | ▼ SHORT | HYG | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -7.7% | -30.1% |
| 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks | equities | ▼ SHORT | BXP | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -12.2% | -34.6% |
| 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable | macro | ▼ SHORT | XLY | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -31.8% | -54.2% |
| 🤖 Tech has another tough year in 2023 | tech | ▼ SHORT | QQQ | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -48.6% | -71.0% |
| 🤖 Google Search is 2023's biggest business loser as AI answers erode it | tech | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 | WRONG | -55.4% | -77.8% |
| 📈 Premium-IP media rerates - Iger's Disney and Warner's library | equities | ▲ LONG | DIS | 2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 | HALF | +5.7% | -20.4% |
| 📈 Base-edited T-cells cure incurable blood cancer - gene editing inflects | equities | ▲ LONG | BEAM | 2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 | WRONG | -22.6% | -48.7% |
| 📈 Wall Street earnings estimates are wrong - the E resets, not just the multiple | equities | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2022-06-24 → 2023-12-24 | WRONG | -24.3% | -48.7% |
| 🤖 Generative AI is the next Silicon Valley bubble cycle | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 | RIGHT | +181.7% | +164.9% |
| 🤖 Natural-language chat disrupts Google's search box | tech | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 | WRONG | -32.5% | -49.2% |
| 🤖 SaaS gets replaced by MaaS — Models as a Service | tech | ▼ SHORT | IGV | 2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 | WRONG | -51.9% | -68.6% |
| 🤖 SaaS seat contraction — net revenue retention goes below 100% | tech | ▼ SHORT | CRM | 2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 | WRONG | -94.1% | -110.8% |
| 🪙 DAOs become a real capital-formation primitive | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | 2021-11-20 → 2023-11-20 | WRONG | -54.1% | -54.3% |
| 🤖 Only foundation models can disrupt search - and Google is too far ahead | tech | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2022-11-19 → 2023-11-19 | RIGHT | +41.5% | +25.5% |
| 📈 FTX's cap table is a who's-who of no diligence | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2022-11-19 → 2023-11-19 | WRONG | -27.1% | -43.1% |
| 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power | tech | ▲ LONG | SHOP | 2022-11-05 → 2023-11-05 | RIGHT | +90.7% | +74.5% |
| 🏛️ Split government ends the spending orgy and blocks the interventionist response | politics-market | ▲ LONG | TLT | 2022-11-05 → 2023-11-05 | WRONG | -3.0% | -19.1% |
| 🤖 Musk turns Twitter around fast - MAU value doubles or triples | tech | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2022-10-29 → 2023-10-29 | WRONG | -8.9% | -16.9% |
| 📈 Activists cannot move founder-controlled big tech above the line | equities | ▼ SHORT | META | 2022-10-29 → 2023-10-29 | WRONG | -218.5% | -226.5% |
| 🤖 A decade of zero rates under-trained a generation of operators | tech | ▼ SHORT | ARKK | 2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 | WRONG | -2.5% | -15.5% |
| 📈 Zero-vote dual-class governance orphans Snap - and the super-voting era ends at 4% rates | equities | ▼ SHORT | SNAP | 2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 | WRONG | -13.6% | -26.5% |
| 🤖 Social network effects are not moats - the platforms fragment | tech | ▼ SHORT | META | 2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 | WRONG | -137.9% | -150.9% |
| 📈 Amazon pivots to cash cow - the GARP re-rating | equities | ▲ LONG | AMZN | 2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 | HALF | +21.4% | -1.1% |
| 📈 This drawdown is the best vintage in a decade to build and deploy | equities | ▲ LONG | IPO | 2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 | HALF | +16.5% | -6.1% |
| 🏦 Levered pension unwind spills into US credit | rates | ▼ SHORT | HYG | 2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 | WRONG | -7.8% | -30.4% |
| 📈 Legacy journalism is obsolete - the opinion economy takes the audience | equities | ▼ SHORT | NYT | 2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 | WRONG | -46.8% | -69.3% |
| 🤖 Twitter's riff proves big tech is overstaffed - lean-opex reset ahead | tech | ▲ LONG | META | 2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 | RIGHT | +136.4% | +116.1% |
| 🏛️ Section 230's algorithmic shield gets rolled back - platform liability overhang | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 | WRONG | -39.4% | -59.7% |
| 🏛️ Federal cannabis normalization - descheduling plus banking access unlocks the legal market | politics-market | ▲ LONG | MSOS | 2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 | WRONG | -40.0% | -60.3% |
| 🌍 Markets are bottoming now - the Fed breaks something and the Fed put returns | macro | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 | RIGHT | +18.4% | +0.0% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine risk is already ring-fenced - even a nuclear incident barely moves markets | politics-market | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 | RIGHT | +18.4% | +0.0% |
| 📈 Life sciences stays funded through the bust - own the tools companies | equities | ▲ LONG | TMO | 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 | WRONG | -3.0% | -21.4% |
| 🌍 UK mortgage resets flip the UK economy upside down | macro | ▼ SHORT | EWU | 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 | WRONG | -21.9% | -40.3% |
| 🤖 Big tech's growth era ends - cash-cow multiples and cost discipline | tech | ▼ SHORT | META | 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 | WRONG | -116.6% | -135.0% |
| ⚡ Household energy resilience — every home becomes its own virtual power plant | energy | ▲ LONG | ENPH | 2022-09-23 → 2023-09-23 | WRONG | -57.1% | -75.9% |
| 📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction | equities | ▲ LONG | ADBE | 2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 | RIGHT | +78.6% | +62.7% |
| 📈 Ag retail is the chokepoint for farm productivity - Friedberg SPACs Lavoro | equities | ▲ LONG | NTR | 2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 | WRONG | -26.6% | -42.5% |
| 📈 FedEx's warning is competitive, not macro - Amazon is eating the parcel business | equities | ▼ SHORT | FDX | 2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 | WRONG | -59.6% | -75.5% |
| 🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | META | 2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 | WRONG | -102.9% | -118.8% |
| 📈 Pediatric ADHD/antidepressant over-prescription becomes an opioid-style reckoning | equities | ▼ SHORT | TEVA | 2022-09-10 → 2023-09-10 | WRONG | -2.8% | -12.9% |
| 🤖 Moore's law never ended - it moved to GPUs and expert systems go next level | tech | ▲ LONG | NVDA | 2022-09-01 → 2023-09-01 | RIGHT | +248.3% | +232.7% |
| 📈 The health halo on processed 'better-for-you' food is a scam | equities | ▼ SHORT | OTLY | 2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 | RIGHT | +61.5% | +51.2% |
| 🏛️ Loan forgiveness without reform keeps the tuition gravy train running | politics-market | ▲ LONG | LOPE | 2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 | RIGHT | +35.2% | +24.9% |
| 🏛️ Student-debt executive order gets struck down as unconstitutional | politics-market | ▲ LONG | NNI | 2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 | HALF | +9.9% | -0.4% |
| 🤖 Privacy backlash pushes data off the centralized cloud | tech | ▲ LONG | AAPL | 2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 | HALF | +9.8% | -0.5% |
| 📈 Elon does not pay $54.20 — Twitter deal settles or re-trades lower | equities | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 | WRONG | -17.2% | -27.5% |
| 🤖 The gut microbiome becomes a real therapeutic platform | tech | ▲ LONG | MCRB | 2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 | WRONG | -35.1% | -45.4% |
| 🏛️ Blue-state permitting has broken housing construction — building migrates to light-regulation states | politics-market | ▲ LONG | ITB | 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 | RIGHT | +43.0% | +35.7% |
| 🏛️ Medicare price negotiation compresses pharma pricing power and biotech returns | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | XBI | 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 | HALF | +9.8% | +2.5% |
| 🏛️ The IRA kills the carbon tax — carbon markets and DAC are dead ends | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | KRBN | 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 | WRONG | +1.1% | -6.3% |
| ⚡ IRA production credits flip climate-tech unit economics — capital floods in | energy | ▲ LONG | ICLN | 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 | WRONG | -27.5% | -34.8% |
| 📈 SoftBank survives the Vision Fund blowup - Masa gets to swing again | equities | ▲ LONG | SFTBY | 2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 | HALF | +6.1% | +0.5% |
| 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 | WRONG | -5.6% | -11.2% |
| 📈 Telehealth keeps its COVID share gain while e-commerce mean-reverts | equities | ▲ LONG | TDOC | 2022-07-29 → 2023-07-29 | WRONG | -23.3% | -36.0% |
| 📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts | equities | ▼ SHORT | BIIB | 2022-07-29 → 2023-07-29 | WRONG | -23.3% | -36.0% |
| 🏛️ CHIPS Act capex subsidy is corporate welfare that doesn't fix Intel | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | INTC | 2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 | HALF | +9.7% | -6.6% |
| 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs | macro | ▼ SHORT | FXI | 2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 | HALF | +9.4% | -6.9% |
| 📈 Amazon buys One Medical cheap and levers it into a Prime healthcare stack | equities | ▲ LONG | AMZN | 2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 | HALF | +6.2% | -10.1% |
| 🌍 Factory exodus from China to Vietnam and India as Chinese wages hit $6/hr | macro | ▲ LONG | VNM | 2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 | WRONG | -0.3% | -16.6% |
| 📈 ProKidney's autologous cell therapy for chronic kidney disease | equities | ▲ LONG | PROK | 2022-07-14 → 2023-07-14 | RIGHT | +26.8% | +6.0% |
| 🏦 Inflation hasn't peaked and the terminal rate is above what's priced | rates | ▼ SHORT | TLT | 2022-07-14 → 2023-07-14 | HALF | +9.7% | -11.1% |
| ⚡ Energy crisis reverses green policy - nuclear and natural gas get rehabilitated | energy | ▲ LONG | URA | 2022-07-08 → 2023-07-08 | HALF | +8.3% | -6.4% |
| 🤖 Bottoms-up SaaS hits a growth wall — only the scaled platforms escape | tech | ▲ LONG | PANW | 2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 | RIGHT | +55.2% | +35.8% |
| 🏦 Own the debt, not the equity, of the tech survivors | rates | ▲ LONG | HYG | 2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 | HALF | +7.9% | -11.6% |
| 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort | equities | ▲ LONG | PTON | 2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 | WRONG | -16.2% | -35.6% |
| 📈 Stock-based comp and Evergreen dilution get repriced | equities | ▼ SHORT | IGV | 2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 | WRONG | -28.3% | -47.7% |
| 🏛️ Crypto collapse triggers a regulatory crackdown that kills the opportunity | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | COIN | 2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 | WRONG | -52.2% | -71.6% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine endgame is an organized negotiated detente, not a Ukrainian win | politics-market | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2022-06-24 → 2023-06-24 | RIGHT | +12.9% | +0.0% |
| 🌍 Europe eats the bill - energy crunch reopens the EU sovereign debt crisis | macro | ▼ SHORT | EUFN | 2022-06-24 → 2023-06-24 | WRONG | -19.3% | -32.1% |
| 🌍 Nearshoring to Mexico as China's cheap-labour edge disappears | macro | ▲ LONG | EWW | 2022-05-24 → 2023-05-24 | RIGHT | +20.8% | +14.7% |
| 📈 Logistics real estate becomes a core institutional asset class | equities | ▲ LONG | PLD | 2022-05-24 → 2023-05-24 | WRONG | +3.6% | -2.5% |
| 📈 The negative-unit-economics growth playbook dies with free capital | equities | ▼ SHORT | LYFT | 2022-05-23 → 2023-05-23 | RIGHT | +59.9% | +53.8% |
| 🌍 Consumer credit bubble bursts into a credit crisis | macro | ▼ SHORT | COF | 2022-05-13 → 2023-05-13 | RIGHT | +24.1% | +19.9% |
| 🤖 Synthetic biology's Netscape moment | tech | ▲ LONG | ARKG | 2021-05-13 → 2023-05-13 | WRONG | -59.2% | -62.6% |
| 📈 SVB collapse is an extinction-level event that freezes startup funding | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2023-03-11 → 2023-05-11 | WRONG | -11.0% | -18.4% |
| 🏛️ $10K student-loan forgiveness lands as a half-trillion consumer stimulus | politics-market | ▲ LONG | XRT | 2022-04-30 → 2023-04-30 | WRONG | -13.2% | -15.2% |
| 🪙 Decentralized collateral-backed stablecoins have proven peg-resilient | crypto | ▲ LONG | DAI-USD | 2022-04-23 → 2023-04-23 | HALF | +0.1% | +2.3% |
| 📈 Coinbase's regulated-first franchise makes it a great business | equities | ▲ LONG | COIN | 2022-04-23 → 2023-04-23 | WRONG | -56.3% | -54.1% |
| 🏛️ Regulators backstop all uninsured deposits within days | politics-market | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2023-03-11 → 2023-04-11 | HALF | +6.7% | +0.0% |
| 🌍 US population stall - births plus immigration collapse throttles the economy | macro | ▼ SHORT | IWM | 2022-04-01 → 2023-04-01 | RIGHT | +12.7% | +20.7% |
| 🏛️ Infrastructure trillions get captured by the contractors | politics-market | ▲ LONG | PAVE | 2021-04-01 → 2023-04-01 | RIGHT | +13.9% | +8.6% |
| 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year | commodities | ▲ LONG | DBA | 2022-04-01 → 2023-04-01 | HALF | -5.6% | +2.5% |
| 📈 Rate-arbitrage fintechs implode as their cost of capital rises | equities | ▼ SHORT | SOFI | 2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 | RIGHT | +38.0% | +49.7% |
| 📈 Late-stage private marks reset 30-60% — down-round IPOs become the norm | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 | RIGHT | +37.9% | +49.7% |
| 🤖 The ad duopoly ratchets prices and makes its numbers through the startup bust | tech | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 | WRONG | -25.5% | -13.7% |
| 📈 Quality software grows through the de-rating — Snowflake | equities | ▲ LONG | SNOW | 2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 | WRONG | -42.1% | -30.4% |
| 🤖 CRISPR patent chaos gets routed around by open source | tech | ▼ SHORT | NTLA | 2022-03-05 → 2023-03-05 | RIGHT | +31.0% | +33.0% |
| 🌍 Holding the sanctions line pushes the pain onto emerging markets | macro | ▼ SHORT | EEM | 2022-03-05 → 2023-03-05 | HALF | +5.7% | +7.8% |
| 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy | equities | ▼ SHORT | PTON | 2022-02-24 → 2023-02-24 | RIGHT | +55.1% | +61.1% |
| ⚡ Europe has to replace Russian gas — US natural gas and LNG export is the answer | energy | ▲ LONG | LNG | 2022-02-24 → 2023-02-24 | RIGHT | +24.4% | +30.4% |
| 📈 Over-ordering unwinds into an inventory glut that craters mid-market retail | equities | ▼ SHORT | XRT | 2022-02-05 → 2023-02-05 | HALF | +4.8% | +11.1% |
| 📈 Ocean freight stays broken - capacity shrinks again and rates go higher | equities | ▲ LONG | ZIM | 2022-02-05 → 2023-02-05 | WRONG | -47.8% | -41.5% |
| 📈 Tech drawdown is in the eighth inning - the bottom is close | equities | ▲ LONG | QQQ | 2022-01-22 → 2023-01-22 | WRONG | -19.4% | -10.9% |
| 📈 EBV-causes-MS proof turns Epstein-Barr into a funded therapeutic target | equities | ▲ LONG | ATRA | 2022-01-15 → 2023-01-15 | WRONG | -73.9% | -62.6% |
| 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | CMF | 2021-04-01 → 2023-01-01 | HALF | +6.8% | +8.8% |
| 🌍 Fed ending QE drains liquidity-dependent assets in 2022 | macro | ▼ SHORT | ARKK | 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 | RIGHT | +66.8% | +85.2% |
| 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up | crypto | ▼ SHORT | BTC-USD | 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 | RIGHT | +64.2% | +82.6% |
| ⚡ Global conflict era begins — energy and defense outperform | energy | ▲ LONG | XLE | 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 | RIGHT | +62.7% | +81.1% |
| 📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax | equities | ▼ SHORT | V | 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 | HALF | +3.9% | +22.3% |
| 🛢️ Battery metals are the best-performing asset of 2022 | commodities | ▲ LONG | LIT | 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 | WRONG | -29.2% | -10.8% |
| 🌍 American exceptionalism soars and the economy booms in 2022 | macro | ▲ LONG | QQQ | 2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 | WRONG | -33.2% | -14.8% |
| 🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade | tech | ▼ SHORT | META | 2021-12-23 → 2022-12-23 | RIGHT | +64.8% | +82.1% |
| 🤖 Deep physical science and R&D is the one long-duration bet still worth buying | tech | ▲ LONG | ARKQ | 2021-12-04 → 2022-12-04 | WRONG | -40.0% | -30.0% |
| 📈 Rivian at $100B+ is disconnected from reality | equities | ▼ SHORT | RIVN | 2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 | RIGHT | +76.6% | +90.1% |
| 🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 | RIGHT | +13.4% | +26.9% |
| 🏛️ Escalating global conflict becomes the political outlet for inflation | politics-market | ▲ LONG | ITA | 2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 | HALF | +1.3% | +14.8% |
| 📈 Deconglomeration wave - activists break up conglomerates and unlock value | equities | ▲ LONG | GE | 2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 | WRONG | -18.8% | -5.3% |
| 📈 Zillow's iBuyer collapse is structural, not a stumble | equities | ▼ SHORT | ZG | 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 | RIGHT | +52.8% | +71.3% |
| 📈 EV makers outrun the legacy automakers | equities | ▲ LONG | TSLA | 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 | WRONG | -46.5% | -27.9% |
| 📈 Airbnb beats the airlines as a travel spread | equities | ▲ LONG | ABNB | 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 | WRONG | -52.0% | -33.5% |
| 📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds | equities | ▲ LONG | OPEN | 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 | WRONG | -90.8% | -72.3% |
| 📈 The SPAC boom's back end breaks into the 2022 shot clock | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2021-04-01 → 2022-11-01 | RIGHT | +55.9% | +57.8% |
| 🪙 Meme coins are a blow-off top — take chips off the table | crypto | ▼ SHORT | cg:shiba-inu | 2021-10-30 → 2022-10-30 | RIGHT | +81.5% | +95.7% |
| 📈 Asset-light mega-cap software is the inflation hedge | equities | ▲ LONG | GOOGL | 2021-10-30 → 2022-10-30 | WRONG | -32.9% | -18.7% |
| 📈 Trump's SPAC is a grift that does not hold its valuation | equities | ▼ SHORT | DJT | 2021-10-23 → 2022-10-23 | RIGHT | +80.0% | +96.6% |
| 🏦 Fed and ECB are in a much tighter posture a year from now | rates | ▼ SHORT | TLT | 2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 | RIGHT | +31.0% | +49.8% |
| 🌍 Supply-chain crunch tips the US into 1970s-style stagflation next year | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 | RIGHT | +18.8% | +37.6% |
| 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase | macro | ▲ LONG | GLD | 2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 | HALF | -7.2% | +11.6% |
| 🤖 Expensive labour pulls forward automation capex | tech | ▲ LONG | BOTZ | 2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 | WRONG | -52.6% | -33.7% |
| 🪙 Picking individual tokens loses money — own managed/indexed crypto instead | crypto | ▼ SHORT | cg:cardano | 2021-10-09 → 2022-10-09 | RIGHT | +81.3% | +96.6% |
| 🪙 Solana is the layer-1 that challenges Ethereum | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:solana | 2021-10-09 → 2022-10-09 | WRONG | -79.0% | -63.7% |
| 📈 2021 is the peak of the risk-capital golden era | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2021-10-02 → 2022-10-02 | RIGHT | +54.1% | +69.6% |
| 📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple) | equities | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2021-10-02 → 2022-10-02 | HALF | +0.1% | +15.5% |
| 🏛️ Facebook Files become a tobacco-style liability event | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | META | 2021-09-18 → 2022-09-18 | RIGHT | +58.9% | +68.7% |
| 📈 Liquid biopsy is the one blood-diagnostic thesis that actually works | equities | ▲ LONG | ILMN | 2021-09-18 → 2022-09-18 | WRONG | -54.4% | -44.5% |
| 🏛️ China takes Taiwan and the silicon chokepoint forces US intervention | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | TSM | 2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 | RIGHT | +34.1% | +44.0% |
| 🏛️ Regulatory and IP capture keeps US healthcare incumbents' rents intact | politics-market | ▲ LONG | UNH | 2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 | RIGHT | +25.2% | +35.1% |
| 🏛️ Infrastructure-bill tax credits make the captured solar incumbents rip | politics-market | ▲ LONG | RUN | 2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 | WRONG | -13.7% | -3.8% |
| 📈 Low-diligence capital breeds a fraud wave in the venture-backed cohort | equities | ▼ SHORT | IPO | 2021-09-04 → 2022-09-04 | RIGHT | +55.4% | +67.3% |
| 📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer | equities | ▼ SHORT | ARKX | 2021-08-28 → 2022-08-28 | RIGHT | +30.8% | +39.9% |
| 🏛️ Financial deplatforming becomes the next big political fight | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | PYPL | 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 | RIGHT | +65.9% | +71.1% |
| 📈 Zymergen's implosion impairs the whole synthetic-biology cohort | equities | ▼ SHORT | CDXS | 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 | RIGHT | +65.4% | +70.7% |
| 📈 Buy-now-pay-later is a feature, not a company | equities | ▼ SHORT | AFRM | 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 | RIGHT | +50.3% | +55.5% |
| 🪙 Tether is a fraud and the peg breaks | crypto | ▼ SHORT | USDT-USD | 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 | HALF | +0.0% | +5.3% |
| 🛢️ Carbon permits and carbon tariffs put a real price on emissions | commodities | ▲ LONG | KRBN | 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 | RIGHT | +24.8% | +29.5% |
| 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down | macro | ▼ SHORT | FXI | 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 | RIGHT | +23.9% | +28.6% |
| 📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack | equities | ▲ LONG | PFE | 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 | RIGHT | +21.8% | +26.6% |
| 🤖 In-vivo CRISPR proof point starts programmable biology | tech | ▲ LONG | NTLA | 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 | WRONG | -54.4% | -49.6% |
| 📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO | equities | ▲ LONG | HOOD | 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 | WRONG | -74.2% | -69.5% |
| 🤖 AlphaFold's open proteome kickstarts a drug-discovery wave | tech | ▲ LONG | XBI | 2021-07-23 → 2022-07-23 | WRONG | -36.2% | -27.3% |
| 🤖 3D printing has enormous upside as space manufacturing | tech | ▲ LONG | DDD | 2021-07-16 → 2022-07-16 | WRONG | -60.9% | -51.5% |
| 🤖 Electric bikes reshape cities | tech | ▲ LONG | NIU | 2021-07-16 → 2022-07-16 | WRONG | -74.4% | -64.9% |
| 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus | equities | ▼ SHORT | HPP | 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 | RIGHT | +44.6% | +54.1% |
| 🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers | commodities | ▲ LONG | DBA | 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 | RIGHT | +15.1% | +24.6% |
| 🛢️ Western water scarcity repriced water rights and infrastructure | commodities | ▲ LONG | PHO | 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 | WRONG | -13.2% | -3.7% |
| ⚡ Distributed backup power boom — generators and rooftop solar | energy | ▲ LONG | GNRC | 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 | WRONG | -47.2% | -37.7% |
| 🏛️ Washington intervention in retail fintech is the real overhang | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | SCHW | 2021-07-03 → 2022-07-03 | HALF | +8.8% | +19.5% |
| 📈 The IPO cohort outperforms the S&P after listing | equities | ▲ LONG | IPO | 2021-07-03 → 2022-07-03 | WRONG | -52.5% | -41.8% |
| 🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter | macro | ▼ SHORT | JETS | 2021-06-25 → 2022-06-25 | RIGHT | +30.0% | +37.3% |
| 🏛️ Antitrust breaks Apple's App Store gatekeeping and 30% take rate | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2021-06-25 → 2022-06-25 | HALF | -7.0% | +0.2% |
| 🏛️ Ukraine ceasefire is weeks away — markets rally on the deal | politics-market | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2022-03-19 → 2022-06-19 | WRONG | -17.3% | +0.0% |
| 🏛️ Big tech gets regulated as common carriers via a left-right deal | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | META | 2021-06-18 → 2022-06-18 | RIGHT | +50.3% | +60.9% |
| 🤖 Apple's privacy push blows up the Google/Facebook ad model | tech | ▼ SHORT | META | 2021-06-18 → 2022-06-18 | RIGHT | +50.3% | +60.9% |
| ⚡ Nuclear is the fastest path to carbon neutral — uranium is being cornered | energy | ▲ LONG | URA | 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 | HALF | -2.4% | +8.2% |
| ⚡ Solar wins alternative energy — nuclear and wind lose | energy | ▲ LONG | TAN | 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 | WRONG | -14.8% | -4.1% |
| 📈 Builders green-light supply once the inflation boogeyman dies | equities | ▲ LONG | ITB | 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 | WRONG | -20.1% | -9.4% |
| 🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two | tech | ▲ LONG | ARKX | 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 | WRONG | -34.6% | -24.0% |
| 📈 FDA's loosened approval bar creates markets — capital floods the biotech complex | equities | ▲ LONG | XBI | 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 | WRONG | -53.7% | -43.0% |
| 🌍 Sanctions blow a hidden hole in leveraged counterparty books | macro | ▼ SHORT | EUFN | 2022-03-05 → 2022-06-05 | WRONG | -13.5% | -11.7% |
| 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress | equities | ▼ SHORT | WBD | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | RIGHT | +42.3% | +42.6% |
| 📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled | equities | ▼ SHORT | NYT | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | RIGHT | +19.6% | +19.9% |
| 📈 Telcos go back to being dumb pipes — and that's a bad business | equities | ▼ SHORT | T | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | WRONG | -5.3% | -5.0% |
| 🏦 Inflation may not show up — breakevens are rolling over | rates | ▲ LONG | TLT | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | WRONG | -14.4% | -14.1% |
| 🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state | tech | ▲ LONG | AMZN | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | WRONG | -25.3% | -25.0% |
| 🪙 Creators go direct on crypto rails | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | WRONG | -28.5% | -28.1% |
| 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney | equities | ▲ LONG | DIS | 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 | WRONG | -38.2% | -37.9% |
| 🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | KWEB | 2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 | RIGHT | +58.4% | +64.3% |
| 🏛️ Local taxation cracks the big-tech monopolies | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | AAPL | 2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 | WRONG | -8.9% | -3.0% |
| 🪙 Crypto survives the May 2021 regulatory correction | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:bitcoin | 2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 | WRONG | -19.2% | -13.4% |
| 🌍 America's accidental UBI creates a national labor shortage and throttles growth | macro | ▼ SHORT | IWM | 2021-05-13 → 2022-05-13 | RIGHT | +16.7% | +17.5% |
| 🏛️ Free community college squeezes the for-profit colleges | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | STRA | 2021-05-01 → 2022-05-01 | RIGHT | +13.0% | +13.2% |
| 🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | 2021-05-01 → 2022-05-01 | HALF | +2.6% | +2.8% |
| 🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices | politics-market | ▼ SHORT | ARKK | 2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 | RIGHT | +57.2% | +53.7% |
| 🏛️ Biden's 39.6% capital gains hike does not become law | politics-market | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 | HALF | +3.6% | +0.0% |
| 📈 Direct listings top-tick on the opening print — sell day one | equities | ▼ SHORT | COIN | 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 | RIGHT | +55.8% | +48.9% |
| 📈 Post-vaccine travel demand blows the roof off | equities | ▲ LONG | ABNB | 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 | WRONG | -2.2% | -9.1% |
| 📈 Amazon is exceptionally cheap against the consumer surplus Prime delivers | equities | ▲ LONG | AMZN | 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 | WRONG | -10.0% | -16.9% |
| 📈 Virgin Galactic starts commercial flights within two to three quarters | equities | ▲ LONG | SPCE | 2021-07-16 → 2022-04-16 | WRONG | -70.2% | -72.7% |
| 📈 Archegos unwind stuffs the prime brokers with billions of losses | equities | ▼ SHORT | NMR | 2021-04-01 → 2022-04-01 | RIGHT | +20.5% | +6.0% |
| 📈 Movie theaters do not go out of business | equities | ▲ LONG | AMC | 2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 | RIGHT | +95.6% | +79.7% |
| 🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored | macro | ▲ LONG | PAVE | 2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 | HALF | +16.9% | +1.0% |
| 🏛️ Section 230 moderation mandates are regulatory capture that entrench the incumbents | politics-market | ▲ LONG | META | 2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 | WRONG | -23.7% | -39.6% |
| 🪙 NFTs are a durable new asset class, not a liquidity bubble | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | 2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 | RIGHT | +30.9% | +23.5% |
| 🪙 Everything with a title gets blockchained | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | 2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 | RIGHT | +30.9% | +23.5% |
| 🛢️ Battery metals squeeze — lithium, nickel, cobalt push EV prices up 20-30% | commodities | ▲ LONG | LIT | 2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 | RIGHT | +13.9% | +6.5% |
| 🤖 SaaS pricing power expands as category winners entrench | tech | ▲ LONG | IGV | 2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 | WRONG | -10.7% | -18.1% |
| 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) | macro | ▲ LONG | DBC | 2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 | RIGHT | +57.7% | +43.0% |
| 📈 Rising rates de-rate high-multiple growth stocks | equities | ▼ SHORT | ARKK | 2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 | RIGHT | +44.9% | +30.2% |
| 🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld | politics-market | ▲ LONG | MRNA | 2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 | HALF | +10.5% | -4.2% |
| 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates | macro | ▲ LONG | DBC | 2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 | RIGHT | +37.2% | +23.6% |
| 🤖 Bottom-up SaaS is the dominant mode of business software | tech | ▲ LONG | TEAM | 2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 | RIGHT | +23.7% | +10.0% |
| 🌍 Conditioned fear keeps behaviour suppressed after vaccination | macro | ▼ SHORT | JETS | 2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 | HALF | +11.6% | -2.1% |
| 🏛️ Australia's news code spreads and platforms end up paying publishers | politics-market | ▲ LONG | NWSA | 2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 | WRONG | -4.4% | -18.1% |
| 🪙 Bitcoin bid as the escape hatch from dollar debasement | crypto | ▲ LONG | cg:bitcoin | 2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 | WRONG | -31.5% | -45.2% |
| 📈 Payment for order flow and market making survive the GameStop backlash | equities | ▲ LONG | VIRT | 2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 | RIGHT | +26.8% | +13.1% |
| 📈 Opaque payment fee pools get competed to zero | equities | ▼ SHORT | V | 2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 | WRONG | -8.8% | -22.5% |
| 🌍 More market volatility, not less | macro | ▲ LONG | VIXY | 2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 | WRONG | -63.3% | -77.1% |
| 📈 GameStop mania ends very badly for late buyers | equities | ▼ SHORT | GME | 2021-01-30 → 2022-01-30 | RIGHT | +56.5% | +37.5% |
| 📈 Boosters become routine — recurring revenue for the mRNA vaccine makers | equities | ▲ LONG | MRNA | 2021-07-16 → 2022-01-16 | WRONG | -28.5% | -37.0% |
| 🌍 Delta variant is a non-event — no reopening reversal | macro | ▲ LONG | JETS | 2021-07-03 → 2022-01-03 | WRONG | -9.1% | -20.1% |
| ⚡ Brutal 2021 western fire season plus grid brownouts | energy | ▼ SHORT | PCG | 2021-06-18 → 2021-12-18 | WRONG | -17.8% | -29.4% |
| 📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture | equities | ▲ LONG | UBER | 2020-11-04 → 2021-11-04 | HALF | +10.4% | -27.4% |
| 📈 Inflation scare peaks — rebirth of growth by the fall | equities | ▲ LONG | QQQ | 2021-05-22 → 2021-10-22 | HALF | +12.8% | +4.0% |
| 📈 IPO 2.0: the Chamath SPAC complex | equities | ▲ LONG | SPCE | 2020-09-09 → 2021-09-09 | RIGHT | +45.0% | +10.9% |
| 🌍 Fed at zero for half a decade — get paid to be long equities | macro | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2020-09-09 → 2021-09-09 | RIGHT | +34.1% | +0.0% |
| 🌍 US labor boom: unemployment to 3-4% within two quarters | macro | ▲ LONG | IWM | 2021-03-06 → 2021-09-06 | WRONG | +4.6% | -14.9% |
| 🤖 Growth multiples have another 10-20% to give back as the 10-year normalizes | tech | ▼ SHORT | IGV | 2021-04-17 → 2021-07-17 | WRONG | -6.2% | -10.4% |
| 📈 Point-of-care antigen testing scales — BD wins | equities | ▲ LONG | BDX | 2020-07-11 → 2021-07-11 | WRONG | -1.6% | -42.0% |
| 📈 Facebook short: ad boycott + political-ad ban | equities | ▼ SHORT | META | 2020-07-11 → 2021-07-11 | WRONG | -46.6% | -87.0% |
| 🌍 COVID a distant memory by summer 2021 | macro | ▲ LONG | JETS | 2020-09-19 → 2021-06-19 | RIGHT | +48.6% | +20.3% |
| 📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies | equities | ▼ SHORT | OPEN | 2021-03-06 → 2021-06-06 | RIGHT | +18.4% | +7.3% |
| 🌍 Dem sweep of Georgia runoffs cracks the market 30-40% | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2020-11-11 → 2021-05-11 | WRONG | -17.0% | -34.0% |
| 🌍 COVID crash goes deeper — no V-shaped recovery | macro | ▼ SHORT | SPY | 2020-03-19 → 2021-03-19 | WRONG | -65.5% | -131.0% |
| 🌍 Eurozone collapses, Japan finished, dollar is the only safety | macro | ▼ SHORT | EZU | 2020-03-19 → 2021-03-19 | WRONG | -79.2% | -144.7% |
| 🌍 Vaccines ship in Q4 2020 | macro | ▲ LONG | MRNA | 2020-06-20 → 2020-12-20 | RIGHT | +116.6% | +96.7% |
| 🌍 Rapid reopening: weeks, not months | macro | ▲ LONG | SPY | 2020-03-19 → 2020-06-19 | RIGHT | +29.6% | +0.0% |
⚠ Unresolvable — never scored, kept on the record
| idea | call | scored on | why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Nikola goes to zero | ▼ SHORT NKLA | 2021-12-18 | no price data for the primary play (delisted) — earns no credit for anyone, in either direction |
| 🤖 Biomanufacturing capacity is the bottleneck the US should own | ▲ LONG AMRS | 2022-05-01 | no price data for the primary play (delisted) — earns no credit for anyone, in either direction |
| 📈 Air cargo stays tight because passenger belly capacity has not come back | ▲ LONG ATSG | 2023-05-24 | no price data for the primary play (delisted) — earns no credit for anyone, in either direction |
| 📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel | ▼ SHORT RDFN | 2024-12-23 | no price data for the primary play (delisted) — earns no credit for anyone, in either direction |
| 🏛️ Nippon Steel / US Steel gets blocked whoever wins | ▼ SHORT X | 2025-04-05 | no price data for the primary play (delisted) — earns no credit for anyone, in either direction |
| 🏛️ Pharma ad ban plus FCC licence pressure guts broadcast TV | ▼ SHORT PARA | 2025-11-16 | no price data for the primary play (delisted) — earns no credit for anyone, in either direction |