Jason
bestie
· 325 ideas engaged · 213 episodes
· E1 → E288
0.5
credit over 294 calls
how this is scored
123/50/121
right / half / wrong
-12%
avg α on scored calls
α
26
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.0
avg strength · 162 dissents
Does his own confidence mean anything?
the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.
| he was | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α | read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ×3 table-pounding | 30 | 0.53 | 14/4/12 | -8% | coin flip |
| ×2 stated with reasoning | 210 | 0.49 | 86/33/91 | -12% | coin flip |
| ×1 offhand aside | 54 | 0.55 | 23/13/18 | -15% | coin flip |
Which kind of claim to trust
by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike
| tier | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| annual_prediction | 2 | 1.0 prov. | 2/0/0 | +31% |
| explicit_prediction | 83 | 0.49 | 34/13/36 | -14% |
| positioning | 11 | 0.27 | 3/0/8 | -44% |
| sentiment | 198 | 0.52 | 84/37/77 | -10% |
What he's actually good at
his row of the scoreboard — these are the exact cells rescore.py uses to weight his mentions. w = clamp(2 × credit, 0.3, 1.5), applied only at n ≥ 5.
🌍 macro
n=30
0.63
w=1.27
17/4/9
🤖 tech
n=56
0.53
w=1.05
25/9/22
🏛️ politics-market
n=62
0.5
w=1.00
25/12/25
⚡ energy
n=17
0.5
w=1.00
7/3/7
📈 equities
n=105
0.49
w=0.97
43/16/46
🏦 rates
n=7
0.43
w=0.86
1/4/2
🛢️ commodities
n=4
0.38
provisional
1/1/2
🪙 crypto
n=13
0.35
w=0.69
4/1/8
Live book — 26 positions
his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.
Where his book points
net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.
Best and worst calls
TOP α — his stance was right and beat the index
WORST α — stated straight, because the ledger doesn't flatter anyone
How he argues
STANCE MIX
support
615
oppose
147
reversal
15
brush_off
3
TIER MIX
sentiment 456
explicit_prediction 272
positioning 36
annual_prediction 16
REVERSALS — he argued the opposite of his own earlier position
Latest from him
I think it's 97, 98 ... I do think we are seeing at the late stage a disconnection in reality and valuations, where companies are being given far too much credit.
support ×3
explicit_prediction
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 45:22
I believe right now, starting today, NVIDIA is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute. And I think now Jensen is the leading open source provider in America. ... He's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models, I think, by the end of 2027
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 50:44
I'm of the belief they're going to switch their position back to being pro data centers because they just are following the wave here
oppose ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
E287 · 2026-08-29
▶ 30:44
I think Jensen is going all in on open source based on these two acquisitions, Hugging Face and Poolside... He is going for it. He is going to own open source. And that is a really interesting moment in time for us to look at, because we were sitting here six months ago, 12 months ago, open source would never catch up.
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🏛️ Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis
E286 · 2026-08-21
▶ 35:08
go? It goes up into the cloud and then comes back down into Silicon Valley, polarizing more wealth. And that's where ... I will predict it now, they're going to ban Waymos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.
oppose ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
E285 · 2026-08-14
▶ 23:17
I think Anthropic's growth rate is going to slow considerably next year, ... There's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year. I think maybe they could triple, get to 300 or 400
oppose ×2
sentiment
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
E285 · 2026-08-14
▶ 23:17
You just look at the pricing here of GLM 2 versus Claude Opus, and it is 90% cheaper ... increasingly, corporate America is going to embrace these solutions. ... open-source is the safer bet for us. And that's what's happening in corporate America today and inside of startups.
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
E285 · 2026-08-14
▶ 1:13:10
There is no world in which I don't see corporations spending five or 10 percent of the salaries of their employees on the equivalent in tokens... you are looking at $8 trillion in AI spend just in the United States. It is obviously going to happen. And if I am wrong and it is half... that is kind of where these companies are trending.
support ×3
explicit_prediction
🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion
E285 · 2026-08-14
▶ 55:05
Go ask MySpace, go ask Snapchat what it's like to have Zuckerberg in the ... He's going to be the open source hero from America. He is going to have the best open source model in the next year. I guarantee it here on the All-In Podcast.
a long-term shareholder in Amazon. I have a very big position in Amazon, and I keep increasing it every year. They should do the right thing here
Elon has caught up... he bought Cursor, he's got that team... and he brought in his killers from SpaceX. And he did that in six short months. Never count Elon out. He's frequently late. He's never wrong.
oppose ×2
sentiment
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
E284 · 2026-08-08
▶ 12:32
the difference between the open source models I'm using ... the Frontier models are not necessary anymore. They're just not necessary. ... I'm still going with open source and Gemini being the leaders in this space.
I got my first distribution from a fund I'm in. I'm in a couple of funds that are in SpaceX.
I still think Google will be the number one AI company because they have so many people using AI inside of their products already... They will be the number one AI company in terms of consumer usage by far, I think, this year.
support ×1
sentiment
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
E284 · 2026-08-08
▶ 1:02:32
some of these SaaS companies with great founders who are in it for the long term and ... passionate user bases, I think they will make the jump to AI first products.