Jason
bestie
· 336 ideas engaged · 221 episodes
· E1 → E296
0.5
credit over 294 calls
how this is scored
123/50/121
right / half / wrong
0.54
credit on green-grade calls · n=137
what this is
vs SPY -7%
61/26/50
-12%
avg vs SPY on scored calls
36
live positions
+5894
lifetime conviction force · 62 ideas born
1.98
avg strength · 175 dissents
Does his own confidence mean anything?
the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.
| he was | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg vs SPY | read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ×3 table-pounding | 29 | 0.52 | 13/4/12 | -11% | coin flip |
| ×2 stated with reasoning | 210 | 0.49 | 86/33/91 | -12% | coin flip |
| ×1 offhand aside | 55 | 0.55 | 24/13/18 | -15% | coin flip |
Which kind of claim to trust
by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike
| tier | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| annual_prediction | 2 | 1.0 prov. | 2/0/0 | +31% |
| explicit_prediction | 82 | 0.48 | 33/13/36 | -16% |
| positioning | 11 | 0.27 | 3/0/8 | -44% |
| sentiment | 199 | 0.52 | 85/37/77 | -10% |
What he's actually good at
his row of the scoreboard — these are his scored record by category, unlocked at n ≥ 5 resolved calls. Track record only — it does not weight his mentions or move any conviction.
🌍 macro
n=30
0.63
provisional
17/4/9
🤖 tech
n=56
0.53
provisional
25/9/22
⚡ energy
n=17
0.5
provisional
7/3/7
🏦 rates
n=8
0.5
provisional
2/4/2
📈 equities
n=105
0.49
provisional
43/16/46
🏛️ politics-market
n=61
0.49
provisional
24/12/25
🛢️ commodities
n=4
0.38
provisional
1/1/2
🪙 crypto
n=13
0.35
provisional
4/1/8
Live book — 36 positions
his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.
Where his book points
net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.
Where he's out on a limb
the differentiated part of his book — nobody else has taken a regular stance, or the rest of the table is on the other side. High information either way: these are the calls that make his record, and the ones with no cross-voice check on them.
HIS ALONE
📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold
27
never reached the ≥2-voice green gate on his own
VS THE TABLE
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
49
he opposes; all 3 other regular voices disagree
VS THE TABLE
🤖 Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
23
he opposes; all 2 other regular voices disagree
VS THE TABLE
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
0
he supports; all 3 other regular voices disagree
Best and worst calls
BEST vs SPY — his stance was right and beat the index
WORST vs SPY — stated straight, because the ledger doesn't flatter anyone
How he argues
STANCE MIX
support
658
oppose
168
reversal
7
brush_off
4
TIER MIX
sentiment 495
explicit_prediction 283
positioning 43
annual_prediction 16
REVERSALS — he argued the opposite of his own earlier position
Latest from him
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives
E296 · 2026-11-07
▶ 1:06:11
I think this is like you're getting into Dr. Doom scenarios. I think you're completely wrong. I think it's like a 1% chance of something crazy like this happens.
support ×3
explicit_prediction
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
E296 · 2026-11-07
▶ 1:12:48
So I think there's 500 to 1,000 times the need for this. When that happens, this compute is going to go wherever it needs to go.
And so we're on the verge of ordering everybody a Mac Studio 512K for $20,000, which would mean $400,000 in compute on people's desktops and running local models first
support ×2
positioning
🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks
E296 · 2026-11-07
▶ 1:12:48
running local models first and then falling back to them because we don't want to be throttled. We want to have unmetered intelligence.
support ×3
explicit_prediction
🏛️ US data-center freeze pushes the next AI buildout offshore; the US becomes a net token importer
E296 · 2026-11-07
▶ 1:12:48
So offshore data centers will be the trend of the next two years. That's what you're going to see and desktop usage of local models. I'll just make that prediction here.
support ×3
positioning
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
E296 · 2026-11-07
▶ 1:18:30
It's going to be a no-brainer, let alone the prescience of SpaceX, which is severely undervalued as a stock and is... SpaceX, Tesla, I've been buying shares to this whole insanity.
SpaceX, Tesla, I've been buying shares to this whole insanity.
support ×1
positioning
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E296 · 2026-11-07
▶ 1:18:30
SpaceX, Tesla, I've been buying shares to this whole insanity.
support ×3
explicit_prediction
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
E295 · 2026-10-30
▶ 34:57
The token usage is 500x. That means we're going to have not enough compute, and everybody's got to build out it completely wrong. There won't be enough.
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
E295 · 2026-10-30
▶ 51:08
It's possible Anthropics business is bigger than the top three franchises in the history of business put together.
oppose ×1
sentiment
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
E295 · 2026-10-30
▶ 51:08
And that is something we've never seen, which means you have no choice but to buy American debt and this debt. If you're a global participant, where are you going to put your money? France, in China, you can't put it into China.
support ×1
sentiment
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
E295 · 2026-10-30
▶ 52:55
Well, in the face of new evidence, you would have to say that they are lowering the prices and the opportunity in the enterprise is so great that they're not being dramatically impacted by it.
support ×2
sentiment
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E295 · 2026-10-30
▶ 58:44
There's so much growth left here when every single employee has an agent.
That's going to be really interesting when we have all of the hands turned over in this poker game when OpenAI files.
So for me, I just literally bought some shares. So I'm long. I just bought more shares of Google while doing the show.