Sacks
Does his own confidence mean anything?
the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.
| he was | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α | read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ×3 table-pounding | 88 | 0.41 | 34/4/50 | -21% | worse than coin flip |
| ×2 stated with reasoning | 211 | 0.5 | 83/44/84 | -13% | coin flip |
| ×1 offhand aside | 28 | 0.48 | 10/7/11 | -17% | coin flip |
Which kind of claim to trust
by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike
| tier | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| annual_prediction | 2 | 0.5 prov. | 1/0/1 | +17% |
| explicit_prediction | 181 | 0.45 | 69/26/86 | -20% |
| positioning | 10 | 0.3 | 3/0/7 | -52% |
| sentiment | 134 | 0.51 | 54/29/51 | -8% |
What he's actually good at
his row of the scoreboard — these are the exact cells rescore.py uses to weight his mentions. w = clamp(2 × credit, 0.3, 1.5), applied only at n ≥ 5.
Live book — 23 positions
his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.
Where his book points
net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.
Best and worst calls
How he argues
Latest from him
I'm starting to wonder if this is 1998 or 1999 ... I think it's more 1998 than 1999 because I don't think we've seen the peak yet
There are great deals for local communities to be had ... We've seen that in Loudoun County, Virginia, the average taxpayers' property taxes went down by $6,000 because they're getting all this data center revenue.
the market structure that we have right now is there's two markets ... And then there's Commodity Intelligence, which is everybody else, including all the open models. And they're not competing on being at the frontier. They're competing on price
the answer to AI-powered cyber attacks is AI-powered cyber defense. And what we need to do is get the latest and greatest AI-powered cyber defense into the hands of IT departments and CISOs. And again, we're on a clock here to find all these vulnerabilities and patch them before the hackers do.
the reason why it's not going to be stopped is because consumers are adopting it ... Why are the data centers getting built? Why do people want to build them? It's because the demand is there from consumers and businesses. ... the adoption is pulling this whole thing forward
Well, this narrative of the Sass apocalypse was totally overdone. I mean, this whole Sass is dead narrative is just getting shredded today with Salesforce being up over 20 percent. You could go back and look at some of the clips I've been saying now for months. I do not believe that core systems of record like CRM are going to get ripped and replaced with something vibe-coded... Enterprises want certainty, they have compliance, they want professionally managed software that's been running and debugged for years.
So, what is the takeaway, I think, for the larger market here? It is that the AI boom is continuing. The other narrative that's getting shredded today is that this AI CapEx is a bubble. It's basically gonna end very soon. And what Nvidia is basically saying with its numbers and forecasts is actually, this AI CapEx is gonna continue well into the future. It's got real legs. And the amazing thing is that after these numbers, even despite the 8% bump, Nvidia is only trading at 12 times earnings.
it is very, very hard to control spending when you have so many people going in... So I don't know how we get reform on this. Let me just say that if the Republicans lose control of Congress, I don't think that's going to make it better because you see now that the political energy in the Democrat Party is all towards these massive new spending programs that the DSA wants.
If you think you are bringing about the singularity — and let's face it, he probably is in the lead to do that, to bring about recursive self-improvement — he should defend this future.
I actually was going to say 4-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable... the over-under really is 500 billion exit ARR for next year, and I think they think they'll do the over... the Anthropic IPO is really important for the market — everyone's going to be looking to Anthropic's quarterly earnings as the pace car.
I actually think that their pricing power may be quite sustainable, ... a decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence. ... their lead is growing because they're on the way to
The biggest risk is that you get a glut of compute and you get an overbuild. ... In a weird way, all the political headwinds, ... will almost guarantee that there's not an oversupply relative to the exponentially growing demand.
The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas-powered for the new data centers. That's the only way to get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two.
to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute at pretty attractive prices to the frontier labs.
the market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly. I think it's a very powerful duopoly. I don't think it's being commoditized. ... Anthropic is now over 80 billion of ARR. Started the year at 10, ... people are willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.