Friedberg

With the.com boom, it was all like metrics that weren't dollars. What we're seeing now is revenue and profits and growth in revenue and profits that we've never seen before. ... it is all real dollars flowing versus speculative utilization.

I think you politically have to be. It's like polling at negative 80 And it's bipartisan.

the sandbox should be dynamic. It should be agentic. It should be defending itself dynamically ... cyber defense will become stronger than, if not better than, any of these offensive systems that are being created with agents

I think the horizontal platform companies, these tools that are horizontal, CRM works across many different verticals, industry verticals, and Gmail works across many industry verticals, and Slack, and so on, Excel. No one's going to go rebuild Excel... I think that's how I view the real SaaSpocalypse. It's more of a vertical SaaSpocalypse, which is software that's designed for just one vertical.

my theory and my argument on this is there is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. ... even if he maxed out his buying authority in the near term, that's only a trillion of buying and then he's got to turn around and sell 10

the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending is correlated very nicely with the cost of housing, with the cost of healthcare, with the cost of education, and with the cost of everything else... And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during COVID very quickly got normalized and became persistent spending cycles... So if the inflation remains high, people's affordability continues to go low.

I happen to believe, having looked at this and thought about it, I think that it is possible. I think it is likely to happen soon. People I've talked to in industry do think it's real. ... which is why I think RSI is probably the future.

We printed so much money, we've got so much debt — the 30-year is now at 5.3 percent this week, it continues to hit new 20-year records every day... I don't see the arithmetic or the fiscal situation changing... there is going to be some big movement towards socialist policies between now and 2028 [and their program] would balloon costs — the bond market sells off, the 30-year yield spikes to 7, 8 percent, maybe more.

Capex is high alpha, low beta in data center infrastructure, that capital. And model development theoretically could be high alpha, but it's very high beta. It's a very risky way to deploy capital.

Starlink is just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine... $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA [this quarter]... The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing.

it is way too early to count Gemini out on building incredible specialized models. They have the best video data. They have the best life sciences data. ... if you can be the cloud service provider with that mixture of models, which is what Google GCP can now be, I'm going to sign up for working with GCP

just crossed 5.2% for the first time in 20 years. ... $2 trillion deficit, $7 trillion a year of spending on $5 trillion a year of revenue. Both Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump agreed ... buy a US government bond that pays me 10% pretax a year. Why the heck would I pay 50 times ... We are going to end up seeing more bubbles pop

If you want to bet on AI, I think the best public market stock to own is Google... GCP is probably the best suited enterprise layer to capture value with AI... they're model agnostic... worst-case scenario, they have the lowest cost infrastructure in the world to run other people's models... they just took $100 billion mark-to-market on Anthropic in one quarter, plus 10% of SpaceX, plus Waymo... The multiple is kind of ridiculous right now.

I will make a prediction. I think that eBay and PayPal are probably the beginning of a wave of mega deals of flaccid digital businesses that can be revived with the blue chew of capital and the right operator... folks that are AI native are looking at first generation digital native businesses that have become mature and old and stale and aren't run by the founders anymore... there's a couple dozen of them.

there's been an effort by Anthropic to go around and sign up life sciences companies to contributing to a new life sciences focused model. ... nearly everyone I've spoken with has woken up to the fact that they are basically trying to commoditize everyone's business. ... you are effectively commoditizing the asset that you have,