Gavin Baker

[On $2T:] these leaks are always coming from the bankers who probably lost lead left... if it comes out at two trillion, it probably means the roadshow went incredibly well. People do want to own this. [I said 3 to 4 trillion] was a market clearing price... Whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that... 4-500 billion is within the zone of realistic and achievable.

We're going to run on natural gas for a while. We have a lot of natural gas in America. It's the greenest carbon fuel... Caterpillar, Cummins, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy — they are all expanding capacity fast... people are taking jet engines off old planes and repurposing them as turbines to power data centers.

can orchestrate these open source 150 IQ intellects. ... a very plausible outcome is one which frontier tokens are 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume. And that's good for everyone.

I might take the under. There is another American hero, ... You might see Nvidia at the open source Frontier.

The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain, everyone. Anthropic is generating cash... When I hear these macro and value investors making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire, they're just wrong.

Grok 4.6 is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures... very few of these investors talk about Grok at all... Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX. [And] there's a lot ahead for SpaceX — the SpaceX story isn't over.

the return of a private equity bid for software really changes the investing landscape. ... the rise of open source and the increasing competitiveness of open source is a godsend for the American software industry. It is an absolute godsend.

how good GLM 5.2 is, has challenged some of my beliefs. ... I profoundly believe the future is composable models. ... half the queries are going to go to the open source model, maybe 85%, ... shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure. ... To date, frontier tokens are capturing 90% of the economic value. And open source tokens are probably 80% plus of tokens processed.

memory capacity and bandwidth are foundational to the performance of every AI model. ... this bottleneck is going to be with us for a while. ... the floor pricing in these new contracts is ahead of prior cycle peaks from a gross margin perspective. ... DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40 percent of all hyperscaler capex next year.

to stand up a one gigawatt data center, it's $35 billion in semiconductors and ... $25 billion of power and cooling equipment, and that is clearly inflationary ... When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space. ... you're $40 billion to put the gig into space. ... everybody who's a SpaceX investor or employee has had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years. ... Almost half the employees at SpaceX bought on the IPO.

you can lift H100s, A100s out of some old data center, put ... a Grok or a Cerebras in front of it, and you can get a very competitive solution. ... we're going to be using GPUs for seven years, ten years, twelve years, and that's great because it lowers the cost of finance them, which makes this AI revolution more financeable.

I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today. ... that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company. ... they're going to end this year well over $100 billion. ... It will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference dominated and people are reporting they have 85 percent gross margins on inference.

if OpenAI and Anthropic call it $100 billion of ARR now, with 80%-ish gross margins on inference, the returns are there. ... if we add in Gemini, we add in Cursor, we add in XAI, we add in Open Source, it's not hard to see $200, $300, $400 billion of ARR at the end of this year at high margins. ... there's going to be a really strong ROI this year, even excluding

there's a narrative that Nvidia is losing share to the TPU, ... within the Western AI world, within data centers that are being built, ... Nvidia's AI business is growing faster than Broadcom's, and faster than a lot of other companies that are seen as part of this ASIC sharegate story. ... these other ASICs are not being submitted for benchmarks. ... I think the reason they're not being submitted is they will lose.

What is happening with AI right now, with Anthropic growing faster than any company in history at massive scale? ... they're bigger than 100 different countries for sure. Exactly. And compounding really fast and now profitable.