CY

Cyan Banister

regular guest ×1.0 · 13 ideas engaged · 2 episodes · E210 → E220
ChamathJasonSacksFriedbergAaron LevieBen ShapiroBill GurleyBrad GerstnerElon MuskGavin BakerJoe LonsdaleKeith RaboisRyan PetersenThomas LaffontTravis Kalanick
0.58
credit over 13 calls how this is scored
6/3/4
right / half / wrong
+12%
avg α on scored calls α
0
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.0
avg strength · 5 dissents

Which kind of claim to trust

by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike

tiercallscreditright/half/wrongavg α
explicit_prediction 8 0.81 5/3/0 +24%
positioning 1 0.0 prov. 0/0/1 -32%
sentiment 4 0.25 prov. 1/0/3 -4%

What he's actually good at

his row of the scoreboard — these are the exact cells rescore.py uses to weight his mentions. w = clamp(2 × credit, 0.3, 1.5), applied only at n ≥ 5.

🤖 tech n=4
0.88 provisional 3/1/0
📈 equities n=5
0.5 w=1.00 2/1/2
🏛️ politics-market n=3
0.5 provisional 1/1/1
🌍 macro n=1
0.0 provisional 0/0/1

Live book — 0 positions

Nothing live. Every idea he's touched has already resolved.

Best and worst calls

How he argues

STANCE MIX
support 8
oppose 5
TIER MIX
explicit_prediction 8
sentiment 4
positioning 1

Latest from him

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 The exit drought is a valuation overhang, not antitrust or markets E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 57:40
Yeah, that's a Saudi conglomerate. And so that exited for 3.7 billion. And I think we're going to start seeing some movement, especially with the new administration.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 56:38
When this investment was initially made, there was not a lot of money going into security. There still isn't. It's an under-invested category and with AI and the threat of the types of things that people can build and vibe-coding and everything in between, you're going to need better security. I'm excited to see that maybe this might become an investable category.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:08:58
if you look at Shein and Timo before this podcast, I wouldn't looked up that their prices are up by 27 percent or something like that. And so when you used to be able to get a garment for $18, you're now paying $37 and Zara is like $75 for an equivalent.
support ×2 sentiment 🌍 A second-term tariff-plus-tax-cut policy mix stokes stagflation E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:08:58
And so when you have a bunch of people who can't buy anything, and consumerism is a big part of our, unfortunately in some ways, our culture, what does that do to our country? If you're looking around, there's urban blight everywhere in retail, and we can't fill our malls, we don't have brick and mortar stores, they're shutting down, Forever 21 just shut down.
support ×2 sentiment 📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025 E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:15:18
Well, obviously, Boeing is the big loser here. You've got to, it's interesting to me how bad they just fumbled this.
oppose ×2 sentiment 🏛️ US compute export controls keep China off the AI frontier from 2025 E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:22:51
while China is, you know, their kids are the leaders in AI. You know, DeepSeek should show us that, you know, we have underestimated China every step of the way.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 38:18
I think that the government has long relied on private industry to solve some of its biggest problems, and that's what sets us apart from other countries in the world. And so you look at some of the best companies like SpaceX, Andoril, etc. We need more companies like this if we're going to compete. And so doing this absolutely makes sense, and it's just going to help the sales cycle to get that sort of stamp of approval that our government is using that software.
support ×2 positioning 📈 California's suppressed insurance rates break the market and land on the taxpayer E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 44:20
And so the free market solution is the only solution. If you look at I have an investment in a company called Kin Insurance, and they specialize in direct to consumer insurance for areas that are plagued with natural disasters... So you're not allowed to use a weather model to price in, you know, your decision making for insurance in this state. And that just doesn't make a lot of sense.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:18:17
I think he's going to have to deal with advertisers next, though. I mean, that's one thing that X doesn't have to deal with as much, and that's going to be the second problem he's going to have is not just the government, but do advertisers want to be next to some of the content that's about to appear.
support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ Arctic shipping-lane control is the real Greenland play E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:38:04
It's very strategic. If you look at the Panama Canal, I believe either end is operated and controlled by China. We are at war with China, whether we like to admit it or not, in my opinion. This is very strategic.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 We run out of compute again in 2025 E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:21:19
We haven't even barely touched what AI is going to do and change and all of the various things that are going to come from it. And the early adopters cannot use Cloud without getting shut down because of scaling issues. And I don't think those are artificially created based on the type of investing I'm doing. And so I'm very bullish on Nvidia.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:21:19
Yeah, I'm really excited to talk about it because I think I've been trying to figure out how they justify their valuation over the long run. And I'm not a public market person, but I am fascinated with Nvidia. And their Cloud GPU business is definitely a majority of the revenue. So I think a lot of what we're seeing is them trying to grow into that and trying to expand in case the music stopped. Now, I don't actually think the music is going to stop.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E210 · 2025-01-11 ▶ 1:22:55
But it is true, this is going to be the largest breakout in robotics we've ever seen, if Waymo is any indicator.