BE

Ben Shapiro

regular guest ×1.0 · 19 ideas engaged · 3 episodes · E222 → E238
ChamathJasonSacksFriedbergAaron LevieBill GurleyBrad GerstnerCyan BanisterElon MuskGavin BakerJoe LonsdaleKeith RaboisRyan PetersenThomas LaffontTravis Kalanick
0.33
credit over 18 calls how this is scored
5/2/11
right / half / wrong
-27%
avg α on scored calls α
1
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.05
avg strength · 5 dissents

Does his own confidence mean anything?

the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.

he wascallscreditright/half/wrongavg αread
×3 table-pounding 3 0.17 0/1/2 -16% provisional (n<5)
×2 stated with reasoning 14 0.39 5/1/8 -29% worse than coin flip
×1 offhand aside 1 0.0 0/0/1 -32% provisional (n<5)

Which kind of claim to trust

by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike

tiercallscreditright/half/wrongavg α
explicit_prediction 12 0.46 5/1/6 -10%
sentiment 6 0.08 0/1/5 -60%

What he's actually good at

his row of the scoreboard — these are the exact cells rescore.py uses to weight his mentions. w = clamp(2 × credit, 0.3, 1.5), applied only at n ≥ 5.

⚡ energy n=1
1.0 provisional 1/0/0
🏦 rates n=2
0.5 provisional 1/0/1
🌍 macro n=3
0.33 provisional 1/0/2
📈 equities n=5
0.3 w=0.60 1/1/3
🏛️ politics-market n=6
0.25 w=0.50 1/1/4
🤖 tech n=1
0.0 provisional 0/0/1

Live book — 1 position

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

ideahis stanceexpressionconvictionflageval in
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control CONTESTED oppose ×2 ▲ LONG BAH 16.0 59d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

BAH
+16.0 long

Best and worst calls

How he argues

STANCE MIX
support 17
oppose 5
TIER MIX
explicit_prediction 15
sentiment 7

Latest from him

support ×2 sentiment 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 17:47
Is this stuff going to hit fast enough to actually justify the amount of investment, or are you going to see a crater here?
support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ State AI-regulation patchwork advantages incumbents over startups E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 41:41
the idea that the federal government ought to prevent the state of California from filling the field with some really bad AI legislation that essentially destroys competition among all the various players
support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 31:06
Otherwise, China is able to sort of climb out the window, which is, I think, what they've done on everything from Nvidia chips to TikTok to their actual tariff rate, which I believe is now lower than the tariff rate we have against Canada.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:13:50
and that's when you will see the Federal Reserve step in and lower those interest rates in order to sort of artificially juice the economy
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:03:06
If things take a downturn, then the backlash is going to be a lot stronger than anything that any of us can say about the failures of Zoran Mamdani, because what it's going to be is, look, the rich got richer and we got poorer, and it's going to be a redox of 2007, 2008, but with a much, even further to the left than Obama ever was, and that I'm deeply afraid of.
support ×3 explicit_prediction 📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:02:39
It'll take a year, two years for those policies to actually hit and destroy all of New York.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Residential real estate faces continued headwinds in 2025 E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:07:25
if they're unwilling to move to places where the real estate is cheaper, then you are going to get more expensive real estate. And maybe you can build your way out of that. Or maybe you can't.
support ×2 sentiment 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:34:36
it's been many years since they brought out anything that excites me as a consumer
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 55:37
unless you're willing to make serious systemic changes to things like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, you're not going to solve any of these problems. And here's the sad reality is nobody is willing to do that.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Gulf capital realigns to a US bloc, displacing China's Belt and Road E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 9:24
One of them obviously is driving these places away from China and the more business ties you have with places like Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, the further away they're going to get from China.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 1:30:48
So if you are talking about just artificially lowering prices by basically clocking Pharma, the reality is if you want to kill R&D, this is a great way to kill R&D.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 43:05
the 10% tariff rate that we still have on the rest of the world is more than quintuple what it was at the very beginning of this process. The average tariff rate, not to use a number David doesn't like, but the average tariff rate right now is higher than it's been any time since the 1930s.
support ×1 sentiment 🌍 US assets reprice with an emerging-market risk premium E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 58:52
this actually has knock on effects with regards to things like de-dollarization. Why are you investing the American dollar if you believe that the dollar is going to
support ×2 explicit_prediction ⚡ AI datacenter demand needs double-to-triple current US electricity generation E228 · 2025-05-17 ▶ 1:13:02
because we are rapidly scaling with regard to our own energy production. You have to be an energy intensive nation in order to produce AI. And so the United States has to play this game.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 44:03
I think the most likely result of these tariffs is that within the next few weeks, the headlines are not good. President Trump starts driving trucks through the center of the tariffs. And then he starts getting wins from various parties outside that allow him to find an off ramp on some of these tariffs.