Ben Shapiro
Does his own confidence mean anything?
the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.
| he was | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α | read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ×3 table-pounding | 3 | 0.17 | 0/1/2 | -16% | provisional (n<5) |
| ×2 stated with reasoning | 14 | 0.39 | 5/1/8 | -29% | worse than coin flip |
| ×1 offhand aside | 1 | 0.0 | 0/0/1 | -32% | provisional (n<5) |
Which kind of claim to trust
by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike
| tier | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| explicit_prediction | 12 | 0.46 | 5/1/6 | -10% |
| sentiment | 6 | 0.08 | 0/1/5 | -60% |
What he's actually good at
his row of the scoreboard — these are the exact cells rescore.py uses to weight his mentions. w = clamp(2 × credit, 0.3, 1.5), applied only at n ≥ 5.
Live book — 1 position
his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.
| idea | his stance | expression | conviction | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control CONTESTED | oppose ×2 | ▲ LONG BAH | 16.0 | — | 59d |
Where his book points
net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.
Best and worst calls
How he argues
Latest from him
Is this stuff going to hit fast enough to actually justify the amount of investment, or are you going to see a crater here?
the idea that the federal government ought to prevent the state of California from filling the field with some really bad AI legislation that essentially destroys competition among all the various players
Otherwise, China is able to sort of climb out the window, which is, I think, what they've done on everything from Nvidia chips to TikTok to their actual tariff rate, which I believe is now lower than the tariff rate we have against Canada.
and that's when you will see the Federal Reserve step in and lower those interest rates in order to sort of artificially juice the economy
If things take a downturn, then the backlash is going to be a lot stronger than anything that any of us can say about the failures of Zoran Mamdani, because what it's going to be is, look, the rich got richer and we got poorer, and it's going to be a redox of 2007, 2008, but with a much, even further to the left than Obama ever was, and that I'm deeply afraid of.
It'll take a year, two years for those policies to actually hit and destroy all of New York.
if they're unwilling to move to places where the real estate is cheaper, then you are going to get more expensive real estate. And maybe you can build your way out of that. Or maybe you can't.
it's been many years since they brought out anything that excites me as a consumer
unless you're willing to make serious systemic changes to things like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, you're not going to solve any of these problems. And here's the sad reality is nobody is willing to do that.
One of them obviously is driving these places away from China and the more business ties you have with places like Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, the further away they're going to get from China.
So if you are talking about just artificially lowering prices by basically clocking Pharma, the reality is if you want to kill R&D, this is a great way to kill R&D.
the 10% tariff rate that we still have on the rest of the world is more than quintuple what it was at the very beginning of this process. The average tariff rate, not to use a number David doesn't like, but the average tariff rate right now is higher than it's been any time since the 1930s.
this actually has knock on effects with regards to things like de-dollarization. Why are you investing the American dollar if you believe that the dollar is going to
because we are rapidly scaling with regard to our own energy production. You have to be an energy intensive nation in order to produce AI. And so the United States has to play this game.
I think the most likely result of these tariffs is that within the next few weeks, the headlines are not good. President Trump starts driving trucks through the center of the tariffs. And then he starts getting wins from various parties outside that allow him to find an off ramp on some of these tariffs.