Ryan Petersen

And what has happened is a 60% decline in bookings of ocean freight from China to the U S I mean, so that's really, really pretty dramatic, like probably exceeding what was expected.

Yeah, I mean, the bleak scenario, which is, I don't really think it's going to happen. I think that the administration doesn't want this to be their legacy, that they created a policy that just kind of tanked small business and supply chain. So I don't actually think this is going to happen.

And those feedback loops are there. I mean, the Trump administration is going to act on this, and there's an act that's coming out of Congress as well to shut down the foreign import of records. So those feedback loops are there in ways that I don't know if they were there in the past.

Whereas with AI, it's almost free. I'm calling thousands of them a day going, hey, this load looks like it's a good match for you. Are you interested? And then we activate them on the platform. That's new work that wasn't gonna happen before not just a replacement.

About 30% of all ocean container traffic flows through the Suez and through the Red Sea. ... So you're talking about a 20, 25% cut in shipping capacity on the 30% of all containers.

the Suez Canal is too valuable, in my opinion, too valuable to civilization, to the modern world, to believe that a group of rebels, no matter how well-funded they may be, is gonna be able to disrupt that for any long period of time.

going through almost a perfect storm right now in a really, really bad way, like the movie The Perfect Storm, because ocean freight rates are sky-high ... Walmart announced their costs were through the roof from supply chain and their stock fell 10 percent today, wiping off $40 billion of market cap this morning ... what we're seeing right now is these warehouses are overflowing

these DTC brands got a double whammy because Apple, what they was last year when they changed their privacy rules and their customer acquisition models on Instagram, Facebook, all these things stopped working.

And then add to that that consumers are now starting to come back to conferences like this, go back to the restaurants and the clubs and doing the travel. And during the pandemic, everybody just bought stuff. You got to get your dopamine from somewhere and everybody was just buying goods. So that is like a triple whammy for these companies.

have actually ordered 25% more ships, increased the fleet by 25% over the next three years ... So it could be ugly the other way, real quick. You have too many ships and the ship owners can't make any money.

And you asked a little bit, air freight, what's going to happen there. Well, remember, 50% of all the world's air freight flies in the belly of passenger planes. There's way less people traveling to and from Asia than there were. ... we've actually got 10 passenger planes that we've leased, and we'll keep doing more, that are not flying any passengers. We're just filling them with freight.

And coming back to the question about assets, is there a play here? Probably yes, because most of Wall Street has been trained. They've gone to all the same business schools, and everybody's been trained. Assets are terrible. Get them off your books. Don't carry them. ... It's still a trend, and almost everywhere, until somebody like TSMC comes along and says, you know what, you don't want assets, Intel, fine, we'll build the fabs. ... And now they're a $400 billion company because they're willing to have assets on the books.

And if it's just cheap labor, two years ago, Mexico became cheaper than China in labor costs. ... It was a huge shift. And now Mexico doesn't have the manufacturing capacity. They don't have the skill sets. They don't. But they'll build it. And people will respond to that trend. As long as it takes 120 days to ship stuff from China to the US and we can't get this sorted out, brands are going to respond to shipping closer to home. So that is a trend that you're going to see more and more of.

And so the result will actually show up down the road when all of a sudden they miss revenue three, four quarters down the road. And that's why I've been saying for a couple of shows now that the biggest thing I'm concerned about is when the revenue shortfalls start to hit the companies that are dependent on these supply chains. ... And just this quarter with the quarterly earnings, we're now seeing that the company yesterday that reported called Ingredion, their big food ingredients company, and they just reported how supply chain problems have now backed up to affect. And the stock was down like 10%, 11% yesterday.

So I'm really worried that we're going to find out in six months or in some time period in the future here, that people have ordered way too many goods, that these companies expected demand to stay high and keep booming. ... At some point, consumers start going to restaurants and start traveling a lot more. You get pre-COVID consumption patterns, and all these companies get stuck with way too much inventory, that they paid way too much to ship and get delivered and they can't sell it. And so I'd be very worried for like, middle market kind of retail, direct to consumer ecom, these types of businesses that aren't very sophisticated in demand planning and end up with way too much inventory.