Elon Musk
Does his own confidence mean anything?
the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.
| he was | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α | read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ×3 table-pounding | 2 | 0.0 | 0/0/2 | -14% | provisional (n<5) |
| ×2 stated with reasoning | 1 | 0.0 | 0/0/1 | +49% | provisional (n<5) |
Which kind of claim to trust
by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike
| tier | calls | credit | right/half/wrong | avg α |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| explicit_prediction | 1 | 0.0 prov. | 0/0/1 | -11% |
| positioning | 1 | 0.0 prov. | 0/0/1 | -17% |
| sentiment | 1 | 0.0 prov. | 0/0/1 | +49% |
What he's actually good at
his row of the scoreboard — these are the exact cells rescore.py uses to weight his mentions. w = clamp(2 × credit, 0.3, 1.5), applied only at n ≥ 5.
Live book — 1 position
his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.
| idea | his stance | expression | conviction | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab | support ×2 | ▲ LONG TSLA | 51.8 | — | 226d |
Where his book points
net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.
Best and worst calls
How he argues
Latest from him
All of the cars we make are capable of unsupervised full autonomy... We start production of the CyberCab in Q2 next year... ultimately, we'll make millions of CyberCabs per year... we do expect that the cars will be driving around without any safety monitor before the end of the year, so sometime in December... [with a 100M-vehicle fleet] you'd have 100 gigawatts of inference computer.
Generally, people don't welcome a nuclear reactor in their backyard... If people want to have fun with reactors, that's fine, have fun with reactors. But it's not a serious endeavor compared to the Sun. It's a fun science project... it's just peanuts compared to the Sun.
Well, I think it's more like it does seem like we're headed into a recession here in 2023 The magnitude of that recession is debatable, but I think it's at least a light to moderate recession. Potentially, it's on the order of 2009
We've got the expenses reasonably under control, so the company's not in the fast lane of bankruptcy anymore. And we're releasing features faster than Twitter's history at the same time as having contained the costs and reduced the cost structure by a factor of three, maybe four.