Joe Lonsdale

Joe Lonsdale

regular guest ×1.0 · 16 ideas engaged · 2 episodes · E206 → E218
ChamathJasonSacksFriedbergAaron LevieBen ShapiroBill GurleyBrad GerstnerCyan BanisterElon MuskGavin BakerKeith RaboisRyan PetersenThomas LaffontTravis Kalanick
0.57
credit over 14 calls how this is scored
6/4/4
right / half / wrong
0.64
credit on green-grade calls · n=7 what this is
vs SPY +26% 3/3/1
+13%
avg vs SPY on scored calls
2
live positions
+87
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.12
avg strength · 3 dissents

Does his own confidence mean anything?

the same scored calls, split by how hard he was pushing at the mention that set his final stance. If credit rises with strength, his table-pounding carries information and you should weight it. If it's flat or inverted, his confidence is noise — treat a ×3 like a ×1. Cells under 5 calls are provisional and get no weight in the replay.

he wascallscreditright/half/wrongavg vs SPYread
×3 table-pounding 2 0.25 0/1/1 -27% provisional (n<5)
×2 stated with reasoning 11 0.59 5/3/3 +18% better than coin flip
×1 offhand aside 1 1.0 1/0/0 +36% provisional (n<5)

Which kind of claim to trust

by the tier of the mention that set his final stance — a dated prediction is a different animal from a passing lean, and they don't have to score alike

tiercallscreditright/half/wrongavg vs SPY
explicit_prediction 5 0.5 2/1/2 -16%
positioning 1 1.0 prov. 1/0/0 +77%
sentiment 8 0.56 3/3/2 +23%

What he's actually good at

his row of the scoreboard — these are his scored record by category, unlocked at n ≥ 5 resolved calls. Track record only — it does not weight his mentions or move any conviction.

🪙 crypto n=1
1.0 provisional 1/0/0
🛢️ commodities n=1
1.0 provisional 1/0/0
📈 equities n=4
0.75 provisional 3/0/1
🏛️ politics-market n=5
0.5 provisional 1/3/1
⚡ energy n=1
0.5 provisional 0/1/0
🌍 macro n=2
0.0 provisional 0/0/2

Live book — 2 positions

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

ideahis stanceexpressionconvictionflageval in
🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business POD DISAGREES oppose ×2 ▲ LONG NBIS 34.3 — 121d
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control POD DISAGREES oppose ×2 ▲ LONG BAH 0.0 — 1d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

NBIS
+34.3 long
BAH
+0.0 short

Best and worst calls

How he argues

STANCE MIX
support 14
oppose 3
TIER MIX
sentiment 9
explicit_prediction 7
positioning 1

Latest from him

support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 9:09
Listen, Trump's negotiating, right? ... He's using this to negotiate. ... And I think it's a reasonable thing to use to negotiate and force them to do that.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 18:52
And it's a really important point also that we should mention, is that the last four years, the economy has looked OK. But part of that is because government's been hiring like mad.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025 E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 18:52
Let's take a million workers out of the consulting class around DC, out of the paper pusher class around DC, and let's actually deploy them to the actual productive economy.
support ×2 sentiment 🛢️ Targeted tariffs act as a reverse subsidy that makes US critical-minerals supply chains investable E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 20:29
In China and Indonesia and all these other countries, they are just shitting over the environment as they make things. I think tariffs are very reasonable in that case. It's not fair to make it more expensive for us because we're doing it well, and then we outsource it for them to destroy things.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 26:04
If it was equal to what Elon was doing, it'd be at least five trillion dollars. And I push a bunch of them. They say, Oh, the Congressional Budget Office and all these things. I'm sure there's some tough things there. But like, this is crazy. We need to see what these cuts need to be on Doge. And we need to cut five trillion. And none of these people have the balls to do that. It's not the political will to do it, is my interpretation.
support ×3 explicit_prediction 📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025 E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 34:07
We had a big contest four years ago, L3, Raytheon, Northrop. These guys, in and out of government for decades, they've gotten tens of billions of dollars to the same technology area. When we went head to head with them, we didn't just beat them by a little bit. We shot down the hardened drones nine and a half times farther away. Same size, same power, nine and a half times. Completely wiped the floor.
support ×2 positioning 🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 34:07
because the way it's worked for 20 years, like EPROS, you could just raise $250 million this week. It's a great company.
oppose ×2 sentiment 🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 57:28
It's really interesting what they did is they locked down the full supply of tons of data centers, tons of the power they needed, tons of the chips. They're very, very thoughtful. I mean, they're effectively, they're traders and they're very economic. And I think they have a lot of the stuff well.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Residential real estate faces continued headwinds in 2025 E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 1:10:11
I have someone who works with me, their spouse, was a real estate agent, and they are having a really tough couple of years because the industry has spiked up. If you get the industry down again, there are so many different places in America where people start making money again, with the title companies, with brokers, there are so many things that happen with that.
support ×2 sentiment 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 1:10:55
So I think disinflation is very important, and I think we have to find some way to get there. Chamath may be right that it's worth hitting assets to get to disinflation, that's something that Scott could be working on because of all the debt
support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 7:28
I think almost all reasonable Americans can see that our growth is ridiculously constrained
support ×2 sentiment ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 15:39
This is a key national security thing, too, because we need manufacturing here to be affordable and competitive in order for national security
support ×3 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 20:58
And the reason they're that angry at them is they were purposely not defining the rules in certain cases and then going after people after not having to find it in order to kind of like play a gotcha game. It was very dishonorable. And Paul sees all that and there's no way he's going to allow that
support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ Atkins SEC loosens accredited-investor gating and retail money reaches private markets E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 36:55
Imagine if Elon could raise for SpaceX from regular Americans. I'm sure he would have loved to do that if it wasn't crazy risky with the SEC
support ×2 sentiment 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 43:18
Listen, I am very bullish Bitcoin. I love all the energy of our society around it