New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale

But you have not had a real test of scaling laws for training, arguably since GPT-4. And this will be the first test. And if scaling laws for training hold, Grok 3 should be a significant advance in the state of the art

I think it's a new kind of scaling access arguably in terms of the potential set of applications. So networks of models, think time, context window. There are multiple dimensions upon which these tools ultimately kind of resolve to better performance

it will get to a point where it is, it is too big for the size of his company. And then yeah, maybe he can over collateralize it and, you know, have $10 in Bitcoin for every dollar of debt. But then like the magic money creation machine that, you know, I see discussed on X, breaks down

And I think the risks around how he's accessing this is actually very unusual and does scare me a bit

But you know, NVIDIA's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're going to have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore

And ROI has gone vertical since they ramped their capex on GPUs. It actually just started to level out in this latest quarter. So the ROI on AI has been very positive thus far. Just a fact

And I think it really showcases the kind of the impressive impact that AI is having on workplace productivity

You don't need to buy SaaS tools. You don't need to have service providers do stuff for you

But I think next year, the human language will be the dominant programming language

But for me, it has to be such a priority that we accelerate a nuclear energy rollout in the United States, because that's what China is doing

I mean, more nuclear, more better

But on the margin, I'd much rather have ten thousand more smart drones above and below the water than like an incremental carrier

So outside of the ROI on AI that you're seeing in Google and Meta from, you know, using this across their businesses, you're seeing real ROI on AI from startups the same way they saw real ROI from cloud computing before anyone else

Imagine if Elon could raise for SpaceX from regular Americans. I'm sure he would have loved to do that if it wasn't crazy risky with the SEC

In fact, I think it's more likely than not that people are going to go market bullsh** securities and private markets and rip poor people off even worse

And I do think if you were to allow ordinary Americans to buy private companies that are held to a lower standard of disclosure and reporting to public companies, like something would have to change

I mean, there's such an easy solution to this. You just do a sophistication test. People take a five-hour course and they answer 50 questions. The end, like a driver's license

which is the increment in electricity production capacity in China compared to the United States. And so we are going from one terawatt to two terawatts. They're going from, I think, two to eight over the same time period, and they're doing it at a price

This is a key national security thing, too, because we need manufacturing here to be affordable and competitive in order for national security

It should be kind of store of value and alternative. It's just going to take over gold

But I do think Bitcoin will at some point be a serious threat to the US dollar. And that just is what it is

Listen, I am very bullish Bitcoin. I love all the energy of our society around it

Grok 3 should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February. I do think a lot of talent has left OpenAI

there are lots of companies that are just these thin wrappers over a foundation model, and they go from zero to 40 million instantaneously

And the reason they're that angry at them is they were purposely not defining the rules in certain cases and then going after people after not having to find it in order to kind of like play a gotcha game. It was very dishonorable. And Paul sees all that and there's no way he's going to allow that

So I just think deregulation and simplifying regulations and the tax code is going to lead to an immense amount of growth

I think almost all reasonable Americans can see that our growth is ridiculously constrained

And that leads to excessive spending, and that leads to the debt problem. And the debt problem creates this kind of arithmetic debt, debt spiral, which is something you don't want to find yourself in