DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback

So the idea that you can take that 300 basis points you pay to these companies and crush it to zero would be a boon to global GDP, because that's 3% on many tens of trillions of dollars.

So the stable coin being the intermediary for that in the future makes total sense if you could get everybody to kind of coordinate against that.

By some estimates, there's a thousand exabytes of video data on the Internet.

which is another advantage because YouTube has obviously an incredible amount of screen sharing data and videos

Google is incredible. They are firing on all cylinders.

They were late, and the compounding effects are playing out, and it's only going to continue to compound.

I think Google now has reached parity, and they have an app out.

you can tell that Google's woken up and they are just on full assault

If at any moment you know that Zuck will basically provide an open source model that is at kind of best in class benchmarks and at the frontier, then there is a limit on how much you can charge for the tokens of your hosted model

Isn't it also the truth that major enterprises, Fortune 500s, 200s, 20 years ago weren't interested in open source, and now that's kind of their default. They want to buy into open source, because they don't want to be locked into a vendor.

And so that then conversely expands the TAM software, where IT budgets weren't usually applied to those types of things.

I do agree with you, Aaron, by the way, that when you bring that whole offline services category online and you automate them with AI, I agree with you that that TAM could be ginormous.

This is an accountant, we're going to take an accountant, we're going to make the number one accountant in the world that's an AI agent.

In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital. And their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.

then it really is a compute game and then maybe a data access game. And that means that there's four or five at scale players that can fund this.

What you notice is the market share of OpenAI has changed pretty meaningfully from half to about a third. And what you see is Anthropic doubled, Meta roughly staying the same, Google picking up steam

I think we've hit peak OpenAI in the market. I think they're going to be the number three or four player. I think Gemini, Meta and XAI are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI is number three, four or five, not one or two.

I don't think you want to bet against Sam and Greg.

So I don't know if it cracks with DOGE. I really don't know if people step up and recognize the limits of government and what the limits should be of the federal government on an electorate basis.

I think we're seeing some early indication of what DOGE will be able to do.

This was a multi-hundred billion dollar grift that was stopped on a dime over 12 hours of tweets.

Root for them and root for this process, please, because this is a path to fixing the most acute existential problem we have, which is our debt.

with Genesis, as you can see here, you can type in a prompt and it renders this extraordinary video that also has underlying it, the three-dimensional objects that make up the video.

Listen, we're living in an age of meme stocks and people selling convertible notes to buy Bitcoin for their treasury.

If you listen to Ilya Tsutskever, if you listen to Andrei Karpathy, what they effectively are saying is there's this terminal asymptote that we're seeing right now in model quality.

So you have Elon filing an injunction, which basically says, you should not allow this conversion to happen until we sort out all of these details, because if you allow it to convert and then I win, it'll be very messy to go backwards. I think that that's a pretty credible legal argument.

But anyways, the point is, if Sacks can really push the adoption of stable coins, number one, and then number two, is to incentivize much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum.

But there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.

And so I just see this world where it's all getting commoditized quite quickly. And so I'm just like sort of scratching my head, like where is the market value here?

I still think you could probably have the entirety of the model providers make 10 times more revenue than they do today because we're just literally in the first percent of the total TAM.

I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude. And instead of fighting over 5 trillion, I think we'll be fighting over 500 billion.

I think we've already seen this, though, and it hasn't exactly played out as you're saying. And so you already have like a Zoho is this really interesting business.

there could be two things occurring here, Chamath and Aaron, at the same time, which is a deflation in legacy systems, and they'll be replaced.

Well, I try and encourage the teams to build stuff that better meets our needs, and then it can actually be a better solution, and it can be built in-house.

there's actually this total combination of actually fewer regulations. You'll spend less money in government. You'll actually grow the economy faster, which will create more jobs.