E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response & more

The real solution is to actually go fully alternative and to go to renewable energy because you can today deploy solar vastly more aggressively in the United States. Look, at the end of the day, the thing that is completely abundant and has the best implications all around is solar. ... And I think our real solution is solar. It's practical. It can be done today and it can be done right now.

Long term, I think solar is the answer, but I think that's a long term strategy.

Just to give you one counterpoint to your statement about energy independence arising potentially from solar, to generate a gigawatt of capacity and industrial scale solar farm would take about 7,500 acres. ... So the actual amortized cost over the lifetime of that solar installation works out to something on the order of 15 cents a kilowatt hour. Whereas if you do it on an industrial scale, it works out to about 3 cents a kilowatt hour.

$2.5 trillion to put solar on every home. The end. Like, we're $30 trillion in debt. 10% of our debt would make us energy independent forever. The plan gets better when you do math.

people are realizing now that the burst of activity, especially like in e-commerce type companies that happened during the pandemic, that was not ongoing sustainable growth. It was one time growth ... it was pull forward growth, meaning that growth in the future will be lower because you pulled forward all of that revenue ... So what happened is not only have multiples gone down, but these companies were being comped based on growth rates that were unsustainable. And so now they're all revising their forecasts down. So it's a double whammy.

think that the bottom in the S&P is around $3,800 and that what we still need to do is this one last flush and that last flush will really touch the big cap companies, but that growth is largely done sort of getting taken to the woodshed. So in general, I think that so generally buyers of growth now, sellers of value and waiting for this one last, you know, 400 point move down the S&P and I think people think it's roughly the bottom.

And as of I would say last week, it was right at about the historical trend, and now it's starting to go under the historical trends. So from a bargain hunting standpoint, you'd have to say that this is the first time that we've been below the average for a few years. ... But if this conflict can stay localized and the economy doesn't go into a recession because of everything that's happened, then yes, this might be bargain hunting.

It feels to me like huge setup right now. People have capitulated. The markets gotten demolished. I just think these companies are still great. Like Zoom is still a great company.

Things are relatively cheap relative to a time horizon that Sacks pointed out and Gertzner pointed out. So things are relatively cheap. Find businesses you like to own and buy them cheap.

The op-ed made the point that we could be investing in liquefying natural gas and exporting it to Europe to create more energy independence, and that would remove their dependence on Putin. ... I don't think we should be turning our backs on the enormous reserves of natural gas that we have here in this country. ... we could be energy independent for free right now if we were just to repeal some of these executive orders

The problem with energy independence is it takes too long. And we went through a massive capital under investment cycle over the last six or seven years. ... And so when you look at these NatGas companies, every single one to a name has basically said, we are not going to put any incremental capital into US domestic NatGas or shale or even offshore.

This is a big part of what I tried to point out at our prediction show at the end of last year. If a country is happy, if the economy is growing, if there isn't significant risk of inflation, no one wants to go to war. When those are not the case, there's a tendency to say we got to do something. ... This is not a surprise that Putin did this. This has been a long time coming.

if you looked at the trading prices of bonds, you probably would have assumed a 95% chance of a half point rate hike in March. And as of today, my guess is that the probability of that is below 5%. ... And so this is not a great time to do a half point rate hike. And so it's almost certain at this point that they're not going to do a half point rate hike.

they're assuming that under the conditions of great uncertainty like this, the Fed cannot act as aggressively as they were planning to act ... it would continue to kind of keep prices somewhat inflated and continue to support the market with cheaper capital and liquidity

Well, and also you could have Germany could start turning back on nuclear power plants if they could get their citizens to pick nuclear over war. And that seems like a pretty easy choice.

I would immediately deregulate nuclear and make nuclear fission reactors a mainstay of energy production here in the US ... It is estimated that nuclear power production should drop to about four cents, but could be as low as one cent per kilowatt hour if operated at scale with perfect efficiency ... but also where economic advantage lies in investing in nuclear infrastructure ... I love nuclear.

I think it's never going to happen. ... I think America's America's ability to scale nuclear, I think, is a very difficult proposition. ... But it still leaves the policy and the societal level challenges that I think are very difficult to overcome.

I have to be honest with you, when I was thinking about the odds of this, just from a financial perspective, and whether I should be doing something different or putting something on, I thought that there was zero chance that this would happen. Literally, I put it as close to zero as possible because I thought in 2022, it just didn't seem like this could be possible. And here we are, and it seems like it is.

So the reason I bought energy stocks in December, and the reason I made this point was threefold. One is because we have, as a result of this general consensus view, underinvested in energy infrastructure. And the demands that are going to come out of the ex-COVID economic growth cycle cannot be met with the current energy infrastructure. And you are going to see energy prices continue to climb, coupled with the fact that when war or conflict arises, typically you see stockpiling and you see trade routes being shut down and you see energy prices climb. ... even some of the energy companies that are going to benefit greatly from this commodity cycle we're kind of in the middle of

I think an opportunity to move away from speculative behavior into real kind of cherry picking, productive, cash generating businesses ... I think the whole time frame around like speculative stuff is kind of wiped out. I think that that era is gone now.