Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs

The paradigm shift is so profound that the idea that you would visit a web page goes away, and you're just in a chat.

I do know that every consumer software CEO that has an app in the app store is trippin. They're trippin right now. And I mean big boys. I mean guys with real stuff.

When you do the random sprawl, I think it doesn't work, but I just want to say a browser is the dumbest thing to build in 2025 Because in a world of agents, what is a browser? It's a glorified markup reader. It's like handling HTML. It's handling CSS and JavaScript.

That has huge implications because if you think about all these other companies, what has Lama been doing? They just spent 15 billion to buy 49% of scale AI. That's exactly a bet on human knowledge. What is Gemini doing? What is OpenAI doing? What is Anthropic doing? So all these things come into question.

The most important thing I think as a VC that you said, as we've been debating for years, should we invest in companies like Scale, or WorkCore, or any of these surge? The truth is, I think there's a very short half-life on human-label data. And so, everybody who's investing in these companies, just looking at revenue traction, really didn't understand that there may be a year, two years, three years max, when anybody uses human-label data for maybe anything.

So if the CEO of the United States, President Trump, isn't allowed to fire people, then all of that stuff just compounds. So I think that this is a really important thing that just happened. It allows us to now level set how big should the government be.

Except that ruling doesn't happen without Doge. That Doge caused that ruling to occur.

Like this EO is only approved to allow for the planning. I think the vote might be closer. I think there's still a majority on the Supreme Court for the actual implementation, but it may not be 8-1 when there's a specific plan that has to navigate its way through the courts again.

So you get a bunch of full-on missionary engineers that work twice as hard, and you have a culture that is ultra fierce true seeking, and you don't get caught up in politics, bureaucracy, BS, and you just go for it. And I think that's where... And then you go, wow, scientific breakthrough, scientific method. Like you start winning on truth, and that will start, I believe, that will start to give the product awesomeness of OpenAI a run for its money.

So if he can keep solving the energy problem with solar on one side and batteries and standing up, you know, Colossus 2, 3, 4, 5, he's going to have a massive advantage there

This is actually what Google should be doing, truthfully. Like I think Google's also, Google Search, Quos Search is toast. And since they have Chrome and they theoretically have a quality team in Gemini, they should be putting these two things together and hoping to compete with chat, GBT. They are going to lose the search game. The assets that are best at Google right now have nothing to do with search. Every other product is the only thing that's going to save that company if they can figure out how to use them.

So why is this crazy? Well, he made this huge bet on this 100,000 GPU cluster. People thought, wow, that's a lot. Is it going to bear fruit? Then he said, no, actually, I'm scaling it up to 250,000. Then he said it's going to scale up to a million. And what these results show is a general computational approach that doesn't require as much human labeling, can actually get to the answer and better answers faster.

If you get, if you have an LM or foundational model of some kind that is the best in the world of the scientific method, game the F over. You basically, you just light up more GPUs and you just got like a thousand more PhD students working for you.

That's the global lesson, by the way. Chamath, you're totally right. Conceptual, the blog post is right. But that's only true when you have enough data and depending upon the use case, the level of data you need may not be possible for years, decades, and you may need to hack your way there through human interactions.

And if you continue this failed strategy of Apple, Apple has missed every possible window on AI and continues to miss it. And it has cultural. I think the CEO has challenges. I think culturally, they have challenges. I think they have infrastructure challenges. So it's not an easy fix.

So this is where details do matter. I think there is a willingness and a, you know, discipline problem on both parties, and I think maybe he can help fix that. The second thing is that we have these arcane rules, particularly in the Senate, that you need 60 votes in many ways to cut things, except through very hacky methods. And that's a reality.

It's safe. Yeah. It's safe right now. We'll see on November 4th. You know, as you probably heard, on July 4th was the first time in recorded history that there were no shootings or no murders in New York on that day. So right now, things are in pretty good shape, but we may be leaving New York quickly.

And so those customers are starting to deploy this quarter. And it's pretty interesting. I mean, in our delivery kitchens, the cost of labor is about 30% of revenue. That's what the successful guy, let's say 30%, 35% of revenue. In a brick and mortar restaurant, it's even higher. When they're running our machine, it's between 7% and 10% of revenue.

OpenAI, at career point, they do have a good product team and they need to stay ahead on the product level because they can't compete on the factory level. The way to stay ahead of the product level is shipping a device. You got to ship the device. It's got to be good. It's got to be right. It's got to be the right form factor. It's got to do things for humans that are unexpected. But then if they do that, they're like Apple plus AI.