Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy

It's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system. So a device that just does one thing, delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes. ... It is a general purpose device and it makes a technically very hard road map, I got to imagine.

Now, if you go to the other chart, what this starts to show you though, is that MAG-7 is really priced to perfection. And so you have to believe that the world kind of stays the way that it is. Otherwise, you're going to have some amount of mean reversion. So I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive.

So if you have many, many years of austerity, what does it really result in? I think if you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way. That's stocks and that's real estate. And I just don't see any other way around it.

The first takeaway for me was the value of Stripe's ecosystem is probably underappreciated. ... But in the report, they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core payments. And one of them is the billing product. It's half a billion dollars a year of ARR. That's just incredible. And I think if they figure out network effects inside of the Stripe ecosystem, that's interesting. So that's first, which is the hub and spoke of payments being at the center, but all of these other incremental services.

I encourage people to use my 72 hour rule and look out what happens 72 hours after Trump says something spicy, because a lot of times he's just, he says a lot of things.

I do think Stripe's main business could be, if we're sitting here in five years, Chamath, could be sitting on $300 billion and getting whatever it is, three, four, five percent on some coupon, right? They could be making $10, $20 billion in pure profit if they have a stable coin out there that gets widely adopted.

As you guys know, we looked at the data, even the best venture capital firms in Silicon Valley, with the smartest, most sophisticated people investing in private assets, were not able to beat the NASDAQ over the last few years.

So all I'm arguing for is more education and a path for those people who want to do it, to show five hours of education, 50 questions, that they have an above average knowledge of how private companies work, just so they have the choice to do that.

I would want to invest in everything. I'm not disagreeing with the notion. I'm pointing out what will happen, which is predatory a*****s will show up and they'll rip people off. That's what happens in every one of these f*****g markets.

I think what's gonna happen is not much of anything. I think the rules are gonna stay exactly where they are.

I am surprised that we don't see even more dramatic revisions. And that probably again is like errors on top of errors. I really don't trust, like, you know, you showed the GDP data or you showed the unemployment rate, Jason?

So we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10 year, which I think is really interesting. I think it's very good for Besant and for Trump. And I think I've mentioned this before, but we got to go in and refinance $10 trillion in the next six months. So you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we get a good string of data.

No, I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity. I think people want this austerity. Just the question is, what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years? I don't know what the answer is.

Meanwhile, you've got Elon and Trump saying, hey, we're cutting, we're cutting, we're saving, we're going to get to a trillion dollars a year. But that's not showing up necessarily in the budget. Is it showing up in the actions out of Doge, TBD?

You need a lot of rare earths to make robots.

It's more still about the frustration that they have with what I would call the software industrial complex. There's a big, and you can see it with what's happening to Salesforce and other big companies is that these renewal cycles are getting harder and harder to justify. And so people are willing to take some bets and see if there are different ways in dealing with this problem.

Second is I go back to what I've been saying for a while now, but the rise of these stable coins is really interesting. The stable coin infrastructure globally, the push for a bunch of these national governments to embrace them inside of India, inside of Brazil. Slowly, it's happening inside of the United States.

I tend to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen camp. It's not like the bottom is going to fall out, but there's like a lot of room for concern, I guess is the best way to put it. ... And I frankly just agreed with everything that he was saying.

And it's actually a reasonable sign that we don't think there's going to be rampant inflation over the next decade based on some of the policy decisions and actions that are being taken by this administration. So I would say there's some indication that if you were to kind of try and decode the enigma of the three things that we talked about are going on, you know, it's generally kind of deflationary to some extent, or it's not inflationary.

The thing that you noticed though is that the actuators are good, they're not great. And so the physical dexterity is still relatively limited. And I think that that doesn't allow these robots to be super functional in the next couple of years.

But I think this is the category people are sleeping on. And I don't know who on the on our prediction show said, this will be the year of robots. But it's been, this is the year of robots for 30 years in the industry. And it does feel like this is it.

I am, yeah. I think it's also, it's not just this kind of dexterous automation, but I do think drones, autonomous vehicles, I put them all in the same category where there's some, it's some combination of mechanical response to a machine vision system that I think has become like accelerated this year.