Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

if the foundation models are advancing at such a rate, like a year from now, why couldn't a developer, just a startup of a few guys, take next year's model and train it

You'll be able to deploy these. It's just too easy.

You'll be able to do it on a local computer. I mean, you'll just download the entire database of every call on a Macbook with an M3.

So Powell's rhetoric is in a way at odds with the magnitude of this cut. So why didn't they just cut 25 basis points?

I think that the smart financial actors are guessing recession or guessing contraction. I think what they're also guessing is similar to non-farm payrolls. We're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downward.

So I think it's now becoming clear that, I think within the next two to three years, you're going to see a massive disruption in that industry.

I agree with that massively, and I think there's another under-reported story, which is people don't like to call and talk to a customer service agent, like an actual human, if they can avoid it.

we cannot touch customer service. We cannot touch it because it's going to get commoditized and run over by these foundational models within a year.

It's pure naked retaliation. The Biden-Harris administration doesn't want to admit that Elon has the best solution for rural Internet, just like they couldn't admit he made the best electric cars.

do we want to live in the kind of administrative state where they will pick people that they dislike based on totally random criteria, a tweet, a meme, a post, and then all of a sudden punish a bunch of the rest of us because of that?

So now you're punishing the guy who actually built the infrastructure for both of these projects. So the reward for actually doing the right thing, which Starlink did, SpaceX did and Tesla did, is to be punished.

For example, the average venture fund is like a 2X return. But if the entry prices were artificially double, then there goes your return right there. You get 2X becomes 1X.

Instead of a Series A getting you 20% of a company, it got you 10 Instead of a C-check getting you 5%, it got you 1 There's no DPI possible.

I do think that we are in a situation where the average returns are going to decay by 50 to 100 percent because of what Sacks said and because of what you said.

you can't have so many companies waiting with very, very few ways of accessing public market capital and exposure. I just think this is, that is fundamentally broken, and we're going to have to reinvent.

if these interest rate cuts are real, like if we just got 50, if we get another 50 this year, if inflation is really tamed, and it's never going to go to zero, but if they go down substantially, and we have this new AI disruption, this new AI tailwind, we could be back in another golden era.

we're talking about laying fiber lines, cable modems, to people who are hundreds of miles into the countryside. That makes no sense when you can just beep, put a satellite dish up today.

So I think it's a pretty good chance that he's going to win, actually.

I mean, I think maybe the real question is why is he favored to win? Because I think the polls, including Nate Stilver, still show him favored to win.

why will they cut probably all the way down to 2% or 3% by the end of 26? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.

And then you run that against that counterfactual, against Workday or Salesforce. And then at some point, you're like, it's the same. And you just turn it off. And you're saving yourself tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.

So why not just watch people use Salesforce or Workday? And those are very expensive products, thousands of dollars per user, right?

I saw the Clarnas story where they said they were going to rip out Salesforce and Workday because they were able to write their own bespoke code using AI. I mean, I have to say I'm a little bit skeptical of that story for a couple of reasons.