E144

E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more

2023-09-01 spoken.md · speaker-labeled ▶ watch ← E143 all episodes E146 →

2
ideas born
10
ideas moved
19
captures · 4 voices
5
dissenting
+121.9
conviction added
-131.2
decay · 117 silent

Every number here is replayed from score_events — the same ledger the pool ranks on. Decay is what the 117 ideas nobody mentioned gave up this week; it applies only when an episode is processed.

Tier crossings

conviction thresholds crossed by this episode — 65 / 45 / 15 · ideas born here show where they landed. why 65 isn't always green

▲ +16.4 🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang watch green threshold 61.7 → 78.0 still watch — green gate not met
▼ -11.6 🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up green threshold watch 68.6 → 57.0
▲ +14.4 🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination ember watch 41.8 → 56.2
▲ +53.9 🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy born at watch 53.9
▲ +8.7 🏛️ Courts reverse agency overreach - the regulatory premium on tech and crypto compresses ember watch 43.4 → 52.1
▲ +19.2 ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge dormant ember 14.8 → 34.0
▲ +10.9 🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China dormant ember 9.2 → 20.1
▼ -2.2 🌍 2023 marks the beginning of the end of dollar reserve dominance ember dormant 16.5 → 14.2
▼ +13.3 ⚡ US nuclear newbuild stays blocked by regulation — none of the new reactors ship born at dormant 13.3

Kill dates that landed since E143

3 hit · 2 partial · 2 miss — windows that closed after 2023-08-25 and up to 2023-09-01, auto-scored against price data and never hand-set. verdict · R · α

ideaverdictRαclosed
🤖 Moore's law never ended - it moved to GPUs and expert systems go next level HIT +248.3% +232.7 2023-09-01
📈 Elon does not pay $54.20 — Twitter deal settles or re-trades lower MISS -17.2% -27.5 2023-08-26
🏛️ Loan forgiveness without reform keeps the tuition gravy train running HIT +35.2% +24.9 2023-08-26
🤖 Privacy backlash pushes data off the centralized cloud PARTIAL +9.8% -0.5 2023-08-26
🏛️ Student-debt executive order gets struck down as unconstitutional PARTIAL +9.9% -0.4 2023-08-26
🤖 The gut microbiome becomes a real therapeutic platform MISS -35.1% -45.4 2023-08-26
📈 The health halo on processed 'better-for-you' food is a scam HIT +61.5% +51.2 2023-08-26

Who moved the board

each voice's force on conviction this episodesupports and opposes, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of this episode's movement

Sacks
Sacks
6 captures · 37% of movement · 1 idea born
+69.3 / -22.8 → net +46.5
Chamath
Chamath
6 captures · 32% of movement · 1 idea born
+63.0 / -15.3 → net +47.7
Jason
Jason
6 captures · 27% of movement
+41.2 / -24.8 → net +16.4
Friedberg
Friedberg
1 capture · 5% of movement
+11.4 → net +11.4

What got argued (10 ideas)

ordered by how hard each idea moved · quotes are verbatim from the transcript, timestamps deep-link into the episode

NEW EWG 🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy closed 8 ▲ +53.9 0.0 → 53.9

Sacks' call: cheap renewables at the margin do not rescue an industrial economy that has turned off Russian pipeline gas and shut its own reactors, so Germany slides into a massive recession on energy cost alone. Chamath supplies the supply-side mechanism — NatGas off, reactors off, not enough installed solar, and a cloudy country. Bearish German equities and, by extension, euro-area industrials.

plays EWG ·primary EZU evals 2024-09-01
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 31:03
Well, this isn't preventing Germany from sliding into a massive recession because they're not able to get cheap energy anymore.
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 31:11
why Germany has such a difficult issue is because they turned off NatGas, they turned off the reactors, and there's just not enough solar installed right now. It's also a cloudy country.
URA ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge closed 52 CONTESTED ▲ +19.2 14.8 → 34.0
Jason
Jason support ×2 sentiment ▶ 51:54
if you look at nuclear, we just had a bunch of, I think it was senators signing a bill. I think you might have tweeted it, Chamath, of support of nuclear, 21 nuclear power plants are being directed at this moment in China, eight in India. The United States only has one, which is kind of an extension.
META 🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang closed 78 ▲ +16.4 61.7 → 78.0
Jason
Jason support ×2 sentiment ▶ 8:44
if you're going to investigate Tesla over this, like people can buy and trade the stock however they want. Like there seems to be some Biden administration, you know, like jihad against Elon.
Chamath
Chamath support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 14:36
I think that when Elon bought Twitter, what effectively happened is the biggest PSYOPs organization for the Democratic Party was taken away from them. ... And so this is the sort of death by 1,000 cuts approach that the blob has of trying to bring him down. And so you see a DOJ lawsuit over here. It's nominal, but whatever. Then you're going to see the SEC investigation over $50,000 of glass.
Sacks
Sacks support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 16:11
But I'll tell you when it all began is that Biden had a press conference where he said that Elon needed to be looked at. ... So this was the signal to all of the ambitious apparatchiks in our law enforcement agencies who are looking for advancement that he's the target, go after him, find something. Now, in fact, they couldn't find anything. So they look at his relationship with other countries and what you would expect is that maybe he hired some foreign nationals he shouldn't have, but it was the exact opposite. They didn't hire foreign nationals. So then they make that the crime.
DJT 🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination closed 38 CONTESTED ▲ +14.4 41.8 → 56.2
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 18:39
The Trump people are actually promoting it because they want Trump to be up against a bunch. They want it to be up against a field, not against one.
Jason
Jason support ×1 sentiment ▶ 18:47
three people at 10 to 15% is better than one at 30 I think that's probably correct
NEW SMR ⚡ US nuclear newbuild stays blocked by regulation — none of the new reactors ship closed 29 CONTESTED ▲ +13.3 -0.0 → 13.3

Chamath's claim is that US nuclear is a regulatory problem, not a technology problem: permitting, zoning and NIMBYism are so constipated that the greatest reactor design in the world still can't get built, and the American companies selling Gen-3/Gen-4 and small modular reactors have no demonstrated capacity — 'none of them work'. Bearish the listed US SMR/advanced-reactor names, which are priced off a buildout that the regulatory stack will not permit on this timeline.

plays SMR ·primary BWXT evals 2024-09-01
Chamath
Chamath support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 52:44
My big comment in my thread is just more that I think that the regulatory support in the United States for nuclear is so constipated that it's impossible to get it done. So you could have the greatest technology in the world. I just don't see how the laws change fast enough and the zoning changes fast enough and the NIMBY-ism goes away to make these things viable.
Jason
Jason oppose ×1 sentiment ▶ 55:01
We have plenty of companies building these new nuclear reactors.
ITA 🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up closed 50 CONTESTED ▼ -11.6 68.6 → 57.0
Sacks
Sacks oppose ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 19:16
And the people who are attacking him now are all these neocons. It's basically the whole military industrial complex. It's all the bought and paid for politicians and think tanks who want America to be in these forever wars. So I think he's being attacked by the right people, and that's going to help him.
INDA 🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China closed 11 ▲ +10.9 9.2 → 20.1
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 54:08
India GDP is going to be 7% a year. They're off to the races. They're on a rocket ship. They're doing everything right.
COIN 🏛️ Courts reverse agency overreach - the regulatory premium on tech and crypto compresses closed 53 ▲ +8.7 43.4 → 52.1
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 15:50
Alex Spiro is going to have a job for the rest of his life. That's his lawyer from Quinn Emmanuel. And Alex is going to beat these things back. And generally Alex will win most lawsuits.
UUP 🌍 2023 marks the beginning of the end of dollar reserve dominance closed 9 CONTESTED ▼ -2.2 16.5 → 14.2
Sacks
Sacks support ×3 explicit_prediction 60mo horizon ▶ 31:41
If Brics adds Venezuela, Algeria and Kazakhstan, as they may do as soon as next year, they'll control 90% of all oil and gas traded globally. ... The other big thing that I think Brics is doing is they have this five to ten-year goal of allowing Brics members to settle trades in local currencies. ... The goal here is not to create a new reserve currency. It's simply to create a way to bypass the dollar complex. They're trying to break the petrodollar monopoly.
Chamath
Chamath oppose ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 36:45
I think the fact pattern in that organization is pretty poor. ... That bank has not disbursed a single dollar in 23 years. They tried to create a joint program to lay undersea fiber amongst these countries, hasn't even started. ... I think the problem is that the actual amount of legislative coordination that these countries has been able to exhibit has been literally zero. ... And if you look at Swift in July, the Swift volumes on US dollars was the largest ever.
Friedberg
Friedberg support ×2 sentiment ▶ 40:46
What I think is most important is the signal that's being given, which is that there is a desire by a larger percentage of global GDP than is represented by the G7 to de-dollarize. And so while these intentions may be difficult to translate into policy in the near term, that signal says a lot about the influence and perhaps the policy of the US in addressing and dealing with a lot of these countries and global economic actors.
Jason
Jason oppose ×2 sentiment ▶ 46:03
But they should make their own euro. If they feel so strongly that they're a great voting bloc, make a euro. And then they could all put into it. And you can see what happens when a bunch of dictators and a long tail of failed states now share a common currency. It's not going to work.
XLE ⚡ Energy is overheated after 2022 and underperforms in 2023 closed 8 CONTESTED ▼ -0.9 13.9 → 13.0
Jason
Jason support ×1 sentiment ▶ 30:18
oil is, of course, a declining commodity with renewables and nuclear and people are going to rely on it less
Sacks
Sacks oppose ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 31:41
The US is already roughly energy independent. We produce about 20 million barrels of oil a day, and we consume about 20 million. ... So oil is still going to be huge. It's the number one global commodity.

Episode digest

written during extraction and stored in data/extractions/ep144.json — the auditable source of truth, including everything market-adjacent that did not earn a capture

Two market-relevant blocks. First, the Biden-administration campaign against Elon (DOJ suing SpaceX for hiring too many Americans under export-control rules, an SEC probe over a $50K glass house): Sacks calls it show-me-the-man-and-I'll-show-you-the-crime lawfare that began with Biden's press conference, Chamath frames it as the blob's death-by-1,000-cuts revenge for X becoming a town square, and both expect Alex Spiro to beat the suits back — all reinforcing the punitive-antitrust and courts-beat-agencies theses. Second, a long BRICS segment where the de-dollarization debate stayed exactly where it has been for a year: Sacks table-pounds it with PPP charts (new BRICS 37% of global GDP vs G7's 30%, 54% of oil production, five of the six biggest food producers, a five-to-ten-year local-currency settlement goal aimed at breaking the petrodollar), Friedberg backs the signal, while Chamath opposes hard with receipts (the BRICS development bank has disbursed zero dollars in 23 years, zero legislative coordination, and July SWIFT dollar volumes were the largest ever) and Jason dismisses the bloc as failed states who should just make their own euro. New this week: Sacks calls a massive German recession on energy cost, and Chamath goes table-pounding bearish on US nuclear newbuild — regulation is 'so constipated' the technology doesn't matter and 'none of them work' — against Jason's push to export US reactors to India. Also unscored: Chamath says solar is now the cheapest energy per kWh on an LCOE basis but concedes proliferation will take time, and Sacks notes the three leading GOP candidates all oppose Ukraine involvement, which cuts against the war-economy ratchet. The Tiger Global hit piece got no market content — all three treated it as a disgruntled ex-employee with no provenance and refused to discuss the substance.