E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
2023-09-01 spoken.md · speaker-labeled ▶ watch ← E143 all episodes E146 →
Every number here is replayed from score_events — the same ledger the pool ranks on. Decay is what the 117 ideas nobody mentioned gave up this week; it applies only when an episode is processed.
Tier crossings
conviction thresholds crossed by this episode — 65 / 45 / 15 · ideas born here show where they landed. why 65 isn't always green
Kill dates that landed since E143
3 hit · 2 partial · 2 miss — windows that closed after 2023-08-25 and up to 2023-09-01, auto-scored against price data and never hand-set. verdict · R · α
| idea | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Moore's law never ended - it moved to GPUs and expert systems go next level | HIT | +248.3% | +232.7 | 2023-09-01 |
| 📈 Elon does not pay $54.20 — Twitter deal settles or re-trades lower | MISS | -17.2% | -27.5 | 2023-08-26 |
| 🏛️ Loan forgiveness without reform keeps the tuition gravy train running | HIT | +35.2% | +24.9 | 2023-08-26 |
| 🤖 Privacy backlash pushes data off the centralized cloud | PARTIAL | +9.8% | -0.5 | 2023-08-26 |
| 🏛️ Student-debt executive order gets struck down as unconstitutional | PARTIAL | +9.9% | -0.4 | 2023-08-26 |
| 🤖 The gut microbiome becomes a real therapeutic platform | MISS | -35.1% | -45.4 | 2023-08-26 |
| 📈 The health halo on processed 'better-for-you' food is a scam | HIT | +61.5% | +51.2 | 2023-08-26 |
Who moved the board
each voice's force on conviction this episode — supports and opposes, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of this episode's movement
What got argued (10 ideas)
ordered by how hard each idea moved · quotes are verbatim from the transcript, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Sacks' call: cheap renewables at the margin do not rescue an industrial economy that has turned off Russian pipeline gas and shut its own reactors, so Germany slides into a massive recession on energy cost alone. Chamath supplies the supply-side mechanism — NatGas off, reactors off, not enough installed solar, and a cloudy country. Bearish German equities and, by extension, euro-area industrials.
if you look at nuclear, we just had a bunch of, I think it was senators signing a bill. I think you might have tweeted it, Chamath, of support of nuclear, 21 nuclear power plants are being directed at this moment in China, eight in India. The United States only has one, which is kind of an extension.
I think that when Elon bought Twitter, what effectively happened is the biggest PSYOPs organization for the Democratic Party was taken away from them. ... And so this is the sort of death by 1,000 cuts approach that the blob has of trying to bring him down. And so you see a DOJ lawsuit over here. It's nominal, but whatever. Then you're going to see the SEC investigation over $50,000 of glass.
But I'll tell you when it all began is that Biden had a press conference where he said that Elon needed to be looked at. ... So this was the signal to all of the ambitious apparatchiks in our law enforcement agencies who are looking for advancement that he's the target, go after him, find something. Now, in fact, they couldn't find anything. So they look at his relationship with other countries and what you would expect is that maybe he hired some foreign nationals he shouldn't have, but it was the exact opposite. They didn't hire foreign nationals. So then they make that the crime.
Chamath's claim is that US nuclear is a regulatory problem, not a technology problem: permitting, zoning and NIMBYism are so constipated that the greatest reactor design in the world still can't get built, and the American companies selling Gen-3/Gen-4 and small modular reactors have no demonstrated capacity — 'none of them work'. Bearish the listed US SMR/advanced-reactor names, which are priced off a buildout that the regulatory stack will not permit on this timeline.
My big comment in my thread is just more that I think that the regulatory support in the United States for nuclear is so constipated that it's impossible to get it done. So you could have the greatest technology in the world. I just don't see how the laws change fast enough and the zoning changes fast enough and the NIMBY-ism goes away to make these things viable.
And the people who are attacking him now are all these neocons. It's basically the whole military industrial complex. It's all the bought and paid for politicians and think tanks who want America to be in these forever wars. So I think he's being attacked by the right people, and that's going to help him.
If Brics adds Venezuela, Algeria and Kazakhstan, as they may do as soon as next year, they'll control 90% of all oil and gas traded globally. ... The other big thing that I think Brics is doing is they have this five to ten-year goal of allowing Brics members to settle trades in local currencies. ... The goal here is not to create a new reserve currency. It's simply to create a way to bypass the dollar complex. They're trying to break the petrodollar monopoly.
I think the fact pattern in that organization is pretty poor. ... That bank has not disbursed a single dollar in 23 years. They tried to create a joint program to lay undersea fiber amongst these countries, hasn't even started. ... I think the problem is that the actual amount of legislative coordination that these countries has been able to exhibit has been literally zero. ... And if you look at Swift in July, the Swift volumes on US dollars was the largest ever.
What I think is most important is the signal that's being given, which is that there is a desire by a larger percentage of global GDP than is represented by the G7 to de-dollarize. And so while these intentions may be difficult to translate into policy in the near term, that signal says a lot about the influence and perhaps the policy of the US in addressing and dealing with a lot of these countries and global economic actors.
But they should make their own euro. If they feel so strongly that they're a great voting bloc, make a euro. And then they could all put into it. And you can see what happens when a bunch of dictators and a long tail of failed states now share a common currency. It's not going to work.
Episode digest
written during extraction and stored in data/extractions/ep144.json — the auditable source of truth, including everything market-adjacent that did not earn a capture
Two market-relevant blocks. First, the Biden-administration campaign against Elon (DOJ suing SpaceX for hiring too many Americans under export-control rules, an SEC probe over a $50K glass house): Sacks calls it show-me-the-man-and-I'll-show-you-the-crime lawfare that began with Biden's press conference, Chamath frames it as the blob's death-by-1,000-cuts revenge for X becoming a town square, and both expect Alex Spiro to beat the suits back — all reinforcing the punitive-antitrust and courts-beat-agencies theses. Second, a long BRICS segment where the de-dollarization debate stayed exactly where it has been for a year: Sacks table-pounds it with PPP charts (new BRICS 37% of global GDP vs G7's 30%, 54% of oil production, five of the six biggest food producers, a five-to-ten-year local-currency settlement goal aimed at breaking the petrodollar), Friedberg backs the signal, while Chamath opposes hard with receipts (the BRICS development bank has disbursed zero dollars in 23 years, zero legislative coordination, and July SWIFT dollar volumes were the largest ever) and Jason dismisses the bloc as failed states who should just make their own euro. New this week: Sacks calls a massive German recession on energy cost, and Chamath goes table-pounding bearish on US nuclear newbuild — regulation is 'so constipated' the technology doesn't matter and 'none of them work' — against Jason's push to export US reactors to India. Also unscored: Chamath says solar is now the cheapest energy per kWh on an LCOE basis but concedes proliferation will take time, and Sacks notes the three leading GOP candidates all oppose Ukraine involvement, which cuts against the war-economy ratchet. The Tiger Global hit piece got no market content — all three treated it as a disgruntled ex-employee with no provenance and refused to discuss the substance.