GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

I think that the thing with Argentina that's worth taking away is when you've spent decades casting about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground, the formula for fixing it is exactly the same. You cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy.

And then as soon as he gets credibility with the markets, that allows them to reduce interest rates, inflation goes away and people start investing in the country.

From a macro perspective, what Milei is doing is significantly different than what we're seeing in any other emerging market, let alone mature market with respect to fiscal austerity and appropriateness in this sort of global inflationary environment. And he said, you know what, I don't see any other leader doing this. This is a no-brainer bet. Let me make the bet.

Like the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100% or more. Just to give you a sense, like in the corn seed industry, breeders that are breeding corn are spending $3 billion a year on breeding, and they're getting maybe 1.5% yield gain per year. With our system, we are seeing 50 to 100% jump in the size of these plants.

And then all these people buying up farmland in America, that could devalue that farmland if that wasn't as limited of a resource.

So I think that the reports of their death were premature and exaggerated.

Black George Washington. Doesn't matter. They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator.

I think the Google thing is pretty special. Between last week's announcement of Isomorphic Labs, which let's be honest, that's just a multi-hundred billion dollar company.

It's going to drive more research and more clicks. So while the monetization per search may go down, we might see many, many more searches.

I can tell you Meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphic lab and Waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap. And Google does have a few of those.

It's very clear now that Gemini powered OneBox is the future of Google search. People just want the answer. I think that this feature is gonna eat the rest of Google search.

And I think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here. Those people who are in those boxes are going to look at the answer here and realize maybe they don't get the click through and that this answer was built on that. And now we're going to have to have a new framework. There's going to need to be, Sacks, a new company that clears this content so that Google can do answers like this.

Well, look, this is the same conversation we've had two or three times where we're gonna need the courts to figure out what fair use is. And depending on what they come up with, it may be the case that Google has to cut them in by doing licensing deals.

But I just think they're going to be able to unleash a whole lot of new applications. And if they're metering the usage of the models and providing the best dev tools, I think there is a business model there.

I think that's why these tools companies or the tools products that Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and a few others are building are actually incredible businesses because so many enterprises and so many vertical application builders are going to be able to leverage them to rewrite their entire business functions.

You just get to thinking how all of these vertical software applications become completely personalized and quickly rebuilt around AI.

One of the emails I got, this is crazy, was from a guy that's like, oh, we've 8090 Photoshop. So we have a much, much cheaper version of Photoshop. And the guy was doing a few million bucks of ARR and growing really nicely. But then it turned out that somebody saw that, and then 8090 did it. So then there was an open source version of that thing. And so to your point, Friedberg, none of these big companies stand a chance.

And that's what I'm seeing on the ground in startups. The same startups that had a request of $3 million in funding five years ago are now requesting $500,000 to a million.

So I think the real victim in all this is that long tail of content on the internet that probably gets cannibalized by the snippet one box experience within the search function.

What's gonna happen to content creation when somebody like Google is just gonna take Wirecutter or these other sources that are not behind a paywall and just give you the goddamn answer?

I think their product roadmaps just became obsolete. Now that's not to say there isn't more work for them to do in workflow in terms of integrating the AI with customer support tools and doing that last mile of customizing the model for the vertical specific problems of customer support. But my guess is that hundreds of millions of dollars of R&D just went out the window.

And so the thing we need to take away is if we don't get our together, that's probably what we're gonna have to do.

So we've been able to accumulate more and more debt, but it's reaching a point where it's unsustainable. And what we've already seen is that the feds had to jack up interest rates from very low, practically nothing to 5.5%.

it should limit the approval or action of certain programs that you might otherwise wanna do in a normal environment, but in an inflationary environment, you don't have the flexibility to do them.

In my talk with Sunny this week, he mentioned that these new models are so much more efficient that you actually can throw the old model in the garbage because it's so inefficient. And these are now becoming about 90% cheaper every year, which means every two years these things are going to be 99% cheaper and better.

So I also think, Sacks, the incentive to just push towards open source in this market, if you will, is so much more meaningful than any other market.

So I think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized. And then I think the real businesses get built. So I will maintain my perspective here, which is the quote unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created.

Chachi BT Web Visits, as you can see, have plateaued. This data is similar web. I would agree with you, Chamath. It seems like the use cases and the looky-loos who are just trying this software, because they heard about it, they've gone away, and then we have to find actual use cases.

And probably the way they do that is by monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it. And I think that in that sense, GPT-4O is a really important innovation.