Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions

I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and out of all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million.

Yeah, I mean, I think the economy is a lot slower than what people thought

And at the end of the day, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, and they did not overturn on the position that the government actually did not overstep their authority to be able to tax unrealized capital gains. So there is some Supreme Court case precedents here that indicates that this will not get thrown out on an unconstitutional ground basis. So there is a lot of conversation that this might actually become a real case.

On the liquidity part, you're being taxed a huge amount without having the cash to pay the tax bill. And, yes, they've tried to mitigate that by creating this installment plan, but you're still going to need to go out and sell large chunks of your company every time you get an upround in order to pay the tax bill. And that means that you're losing ownership of your company. All these assets are going to be dumped on the market. And you're basically starving the market of capital, actually, right?

This is going to put so much cold water on the entrepreneurial market. It's going to make people just have less liquidity to invest in things. I think this is going to be disastrous.

I think what will happen is funds, governments, etc. for the right entrepreneurs with the right assets will help you pay the exit tax so that you can just leave the United States. And that's going to be an investment class that's going to emerge, in my opinion, which is these organizations that will pool capital, sovereign wealth funds specifically.

I think that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie sanders are now the thought leaders and really the beating heart of the Democrat Party. I think what's happened is the Republican Party has moved to right-wing populism, and the Democrats in response to that have concluded that they need to basically move to left-wing populism in order to compete with that. So both parties are becoming fairly populist. Now, what does left-wing populism mean? It basically means soak the rich, right?

And I was looking at the total GDP of the United States is $25 trillion. The federal budget for next year is proposed to be $7.2 trillion. And state and local budgets combined is about $4 trillion. So if you look at government spending, it's about half of GDP now

the silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut. And if it was 25 basis points, there's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the Fed to cut 50

But I do think that the economy is obviously showing significant weakness. Inflation is not completely solved, but it's down to 2.9 percent. At least it has a two handle on it now. And so, yeah, I think the market is pricing in these rate cuts for a reason.

the issue with the Chibs Act is that there's a lot of good reasons to believe that even if we incentivize this, we're still hopelessly behind. And the chip fabs that we're building are just, they're still years behind what they have in Taiwan, for example. So it's not clear it's going to work, is my point.

I think the more the public learns, the more we learn about what she would do as president, the worse she does. And they've now got to run out the clock for another 70, 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy, without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews.

Do you support the Trump tariffs as a solution there, Sacks? Because those are fundamentally going to be inflationary, which is going to make the costs go up for everyone.

I mean, I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling.

We're running unsustainably high levels of deficit and debt. We're running, what, $2 trillion a year deficits right now. And what are we getting for that? We're not getting a super robust economy. We're getting an economy that's narrowly staying out of recession.