The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations

If that trend continues past the July quarter, then I would say, hey, that's reason for concern, but this is a very understandable time for that to happen, from my perspective.

The other part of what I would say is the first part of what you're saying is very similar to what Intel did to scale their chip dominance in the 80s and 90s with this Intel Insight program. They didn't really need to do it probably in hindsight, but it helped them support an ecosystem and it helped diversify their buyer base so that fewer people had power over them.

And so what happened? Now all of a sudden, traffic is reset, volumes are back up. By the third week of March, which is where we are now, we're back to where they were even a year ago. The price of shipping is now contained. The inflation risk is contained. The productivity hit is contained.

Here's what tariffs do. Tariffs are a level setting mechanism that fixes a historical imbalance. Look, the reality is that we have had meaningfully lower tariffs for products coming in than those reciprocal tariffs exist for our products going in to these other countries. That's true. And the one thing I'll say about Donald Trump is you may not agree with the tariffs, but he's been incredibly consistent.

And so I think the out is, oh, you know, maybe it's not going quite the way we hoped. We're going to declare kind of, hey, we have a series of grand bargains with these countries, declare a victory. Maybe tariffs on American goods are slightly lower, tariffs here are slightly higher, feels more fair.

I mean, M&A with Whiz and now CoreWeave going public. Rathalina Khan is over. We got to give the administration a lot of credit for maybe removing the roadblocks to M&A and IPOs, or at least people perceive that.

But there have been quite a few acquisitions by big companies of smaller companies in the last month. And I think because none of the companies that have been bought have been public, maybe it's flying a little under the radar, but it's happening in an, I think, an accelerating way. And I think this would be very good for the market and animal spirits and everything that we care about.

I think they're doing it now. They're trying now.

In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard. But over the 10 years, who knows? And if you're the CCP, 10 years isn't that long. If you're America, 10 years is an eternity.

I think what may be underappreciated about CoreWeave is it's actually really hard to run these big training clusters. Everybody thinks it's easy, but to synchronize tens of thousands of GPUs where they're melting, or cables are being unplugged, and you lose a bunch of training data when it happens. I just think it may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it's much harder to do than people think.

And I think the only reason Nvidia was able to grow through this product transition is because of reasoning models like DeepSea, which are just so compute hungry.

I would say Doge's efforts are important. If you can really cut a trillion dollars of kind of waste, fraud and abuse out of the government spending, that's good.

When we were there, we heard about one consulting firm, 95 plus of all of their revenue, multi-billion dollar revenue comes from Time and Materials contracts with the United States government. We heard throughout the week, I've reposted it on X, $65 billion is paid out to consulting organizations beyond just that one in these Time and Materials cost plus contracts.

So we're definitely not overbuilt yet. Like, since Deepsea came out, like, what has happened since Deepsea Car 1 came out as China is buying every GPU they can? One of the largest Chinese server manufacturers warned last night that there's about to be a shortage of GPUs in China. The price of memory, DRAM, goes up every day.

And isn't where the puck's going that we're going to have optimist robots, figure robots, pick a robot company doing all this work?

I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots. You know, even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots.

The price of memory, DRAM, goes up every day. So we're not overbuilt today.

That's why you want to cut taxes at the same time that you're increasing the tariff rates. If you increase the tariff rates, things cost more. The government is now making things more expensive. That's not good. But at the same time, if I cut your taxes and you got more money now than you did before, so you can now buy the things that you're buying even though they're a little more expensive, the economy should be able to remain stable or grow.

One thing everyone agrees on is deregulation is good. So every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.

Well, I think the proposal that I've heard from this administration that we heard from Howard Lutnick when we met with him was they're going to cut all taxes for people making less than $150,000 a year, so get the tax rate to zero.

And it just further erodes what's happening. I think if once Bobby puts a nail on the coffin of pharma ads on TV.

It's kind of getting set up that almost everything we're building here in the US, China's copying at a very fast pace and then exceeding.

Well, you could take a three-person team to disrupt a 30,000-person team and blow a hole right in the side of that 3 trillion-dollar economy. That's the big risk... And that is, and maybe even two orders of magnitude, that is incredibly disruptive because the existing incumbents cannot compete with that cost scale.

it's not good for human employment, but what will be kind of, I would say, the rate-limiting factor is just compute.

That actually unlocks a tremendous amount of building, a tremendous amount of opportunity for new employment, for people to come in and small teams of three or four to get hired.

But if agents become a reality, one, the ROI on AI and Blackwell is going to be very high, and two, what will, it's not good for human employment, but what will be kind of, I would say, the rate-limiting factor is just compute.