Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more

If we don't do that, I do think that Microsoft will use the power of the bundle to systematically dominate enterprise software.

I think what this comes down to is the FTC and the DOJ need to dust off that old consent decree, read it, and figure out whether this makes sense again.

I don't buy the antitrust arguments on a lot of these cases. I don't think that you're keeping competitive solutions in the market if the benefit of the lower cost product is actually there for the consumer, the customer.

if left unchecked, you will see people abuse this. It is not a big ass to have a la carte pricing and that will make the playing field much, much more competitive.

And the companies that care about safety more than others are going to lose.

The problem that that represents for Ilya's company, and I wish him the best of luck, but the reality is there isn't $100 billion for him to have. Google will find it. Microsoft will find it. Facebook will find it.

I don't care if OpenAI is for-profit or nonprofit. It affects a few people that put money in and the employees doesn't affect anyone else.

My argument is that it'd be good for OpenAI to clean up its Byzantine cap table and structure, and it would be good for the public to be able to have the opportunity to invest, so it's a win-win.

You have government connections. You have no real legal overhang. Then the likelihood that an IRS agent all of a sudden decides to audit OpenAI is basically zero.

I've been talking to a lot of LPs, and in talking to them, they're looking at corporate credit and P&E deals because they can get a return on those, and then they're looking at venture and they're saying, hey, why is there no M&A occurring? Where's our DPI?

I don't think you need to go into all of those mechanics to get the outcome of a new candidate. All Joe Biden has to do is go into the Democratic Convention and release the delegates.

The problem you have now, Jay Cal, I actually think that on balance, the hot swap is not going to happen.

I'll bet you $10,000 right now to whatever charity you want that Biden will not be in the nominee.

whoever wins in the first inning usually isn't the one that's winning by the ninth inning. And so I would encourage anybody that's winning right now to monetize, get secondaries, take money off the table as fast as possible because the future is unknown

OpenAI is one of the leading companies of the AI wave

the right approach to antitrust is to stop anti-competitive tactics. Bundling is at the top of the list. Instead, what they've stopped is all M&A, which is actually bad for the ecosystem, because you deny risk capital reward

we can't sell them because LinaCon is going to scuttle this M&A, and what that means is in a very real way, we have dollars being taken out of innovation in early stage

So the robotic applications are pretty powerful. Machine vision applications are very powerful.

all of these AI tools can add a 10 or 15% lift to an individual person if you are in a traditional organization. I don't think these things are the panacea that they're marketed as being. These are not creating 10x engineers.

I agree with Chamath that it's just too soon for AI to be responsible for this. I mean, the AI productivity gains are just starting, and we're not really seeing job elimination yet or job replacement.

foundational models are quickly becoming a consumer surplus. Every model is roughly the same. They keep getting better and better, but they're also approaching these asymptotic returns.

What's the monopolistic lock-in? The amazing thing about SaaS is that there's no switching cost.

the economy may not be in recession yet, but I just think it's weak, and this is just one metric showing that.

The cost to service the interest alone on our federal debt is now greater than a trillion dollars per year. This already exceeds the discretionary defense budget.

Which is better than running somebody who has a 30% chance of winning.