E60

E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars

2021-12-23 spoken.md · speaker-labeled ▶ watch ← E59 all episodes E61 →

1
ideas born
21
ideas moved
32
captures · 4 voices
6
dissenting
+230.7
conviction added
-97.2
decay · 86 silent

Every number here is replayed from score_events — the same ledger the pool ranks on. Decay is what the 86 ideas nobody mentioned gave up this week; it applies only when an episode is processed.

Tier crossings

conviction thresholds crossed by this episode — 65 / 45 / 15 · ideas born here show where they landed. why 65 isn't always green

▲ +14.8 📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled watch green threshold 59.0 → 73.8 still watch — green gate not met
▲ +66.3 🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade born at green threshold 66.3 still ember — green gate not met
▲ +14.6 🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years ember watch 44.6 → 59.2
▲ +8.9 📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple) ember watch 40.7 → 49.6
▼ -3.3 📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack watch ember 46.8 → 43.5
▲ +37.7 🪙 DAOs become a real capital-formation primitive dormant ember 0.0 → 37.7
▲ +26.9 🪙 Creators go direct on crypto rails dormant ember 8.1 → 35.0
▲ +19.1 📈 Payment for order flow and market making survive the GameStop backlash dormant ember 4.0 → 23.1
▲ +9.4 🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two dormant ember 13.3 → 22.7
▲ +13.3 🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld dormant ember 8.3 → 21.6
▼ -10.4 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress ember dormant 18.0 → 7.6
▼ -23.9 🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter ember dormant 26.8 → 2.9

Kill dates that landed since E59

0 hit · 0 partial · 1 miss — windows that closed after 2021-12-17 and up to 2021-12-23, auto-scored against price data and never hand-set. verdict · R · α

ideaverdictRαclosed
⚡ Brutal 2021 western fire season plus grid brownouts MISS -17.8% -29.4 2021-12-18

Who moved the board

each voice's force on conviction this episodesupports and opposes, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of this episode's movement

Friedberg
Friedberg
10 captures · 33% of movement
+70.0 / -40.2 → net +29.8
Chamath
Chamath
10 captures · 27% of movement
+77.2 / -12.8 → net +64.5
Sacks
Sacks
9 captures · 21% of movement
+71.2 → net +71.2
Jason
Jason
3 captures · 19% of movement · 1 idea born
+65.2 → net +65.2

What got argued (21 ideas)

ordered by how hard each idea moved · quotes are verbatim from the transcript, timestamps deep-link into the episode

NEW META 🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade closed 41 CONTESTED ▲ +66.3 0.0 → 66.3

"Metaverse" and "Web3" are marketing labels for things that already exist (Fortnite, Minecraft, real companies) and get discarded the way "Web 2.0" was; the company that renamed itself to own the label is the one that loses. Facebook/Meta's rebrand plus VR/AR push is a flop — talent flight, Apple's privacy and hardware pressure and open/decentralized alternatives beat it — so inside FANG you own the other letters and not this one.

plays META ·primary cg:decentraland evals 2022-12-23
Jason
Jason support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 29:30
Metta was a complete flop. It was a stupid idea to change the name of the company. ... I think that their VR efforts, AR efforts will be beaten handily by Apple and by the metaverse and, you know, open source slash decentralized solutions.
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 43:45
I picked all things Metaverse and Web3. ... And so I just think that this whole concept of Metaverse and Web 3 goes away and we replace it with real solutions for people that give them value and then we'll be obsessed with these companies. And this too will be transitory.
Friedberg
Friedberg support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 1:24:52
My worst trend was the metaverse. I think it's like the renaming of something that's been going on for a long time as if it's some new future thing. ... the notion that we call this thing the metaverse and everyone's trying to reclassify it as some future singular universe and therefore they can own that singular universe is a pretty misguided kind of concept.
cg:ethereum 🪙 DAOs become a real capital-formation primitive closed 8 CONTESTED ▲ +37.7 0.0 → 37.7
Friedberg
Friedberg support ×2 sentiment ▶ 6:01
And it is a very serious threat to the current system of politics and economics and social order. ... And so I would say the blockchain has really kind of created a new model for organization amongst humans that is waking us up in the political class more than anything else.
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 sentiment ▶ 23:56
This was the year that loose affiliations of individuals could compete on a level playing field with organized capital. And I think that that's a really important trend for the future.
Jason
Jason support ×3 explicit_prediction 120mo horizon ▶ 1:15:02
I say DAOs because I believe that they will become legal and global capital formation for the first time on an instant basis will exist. And I believe 40 million is the dry run for the Constitution. 400 million and 4 billion will happen in the next 10 years to do bigger and bigger challenges.
cg:ethereum 🪙 Creators go direct on crypto rails closed 15 CONTESTED ▲ +26.9 8.1 → 35.0
Friedberg
Friedberg support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 31:51
But what I think is really wonderful about it is the opportunity it creates for creators to monetize their talent in a way that doesn't require them going through middlemen to get distribution and middlemen who take huge slugs or huge chunks of the margin out of what they create.
JETS 🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter closed 0 CONTESTED ▼ -23.9 26.8 → 2.9
Friedberg
Friedberg oppose ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 39:10
My biggest optimism is just that Omicron is a much less virulent virus, and it sweeps through the population, and we slowly see this pandemic becoming less severe.
Chamath
Chamath oppose ×2 sentiment ▶ 40:34
Unless something escapes from the lab again, I think that we're going to be okay. I think this is the end of the end.
VIRT 📈 Payment for order flow and market making survive the GameStop backlash closed 17 ▲ +19.1 4.0 → 23.1
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 sentiment ▶ 54:54
And the populist revolt around this whole payment for order flow Robinhood thing broke against the rock of Ken Griffin.
NYT 📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled closed 47 ▲ +14.8 59.0 → 73.8
Friedberg
Friedberg support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 49:43
And I think we'll see a lot more of this kind of like Twitter going direct type of activity happening in the years ahead.
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 1:13:13
there was an article in The Washington Post that I put into the group chat where The Washington Post article was effectively like Washington Post forced to revisit journalism practices because of falling click-through rates and lack of viewership.
Sacks
Sacks support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 1:14:10
They are not the paper of record anymore. Direct is the new. The internet is the paper of record.
IRDM 🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years closed 18 ▲ +14.6 44.6 → 59.2
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 sentiment ▶ 1:17:36
So I'm going to go with Starlink. Yes, it just came out at the end of 2020, but this year it kept getting better and faster, and now it's reported that Starlink is faster than the fixed broadband average in Belgium, Canada, Australia, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, and France.
Chamath
Chamath support ×1 positioning ▶ 1:18:05
All I can say, all I can say for all of us who own SpaceX, yum yum. That's so delicious.
MRNA 🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld closed 14 ▲ +13.3 8.3 → 21.6
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 sentiment ▶ 1:23:43
You've now got the unvaccinated treated as some sort of untouchable class of citizens who aren't able to leave their house except to buy food and medicine. ... Boston just announced they're banning unvaccinated people from going to all restaurants, bars, nightclubs, sport arenas, fitness centers, movie theaters and on and on it goes.
NTLA 🤖 In-vivo CRISPR proof point starts programmable biology closed 32 ▲ +11.3 47.8 → 59.1
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 sentiment ▶ 40:43
My best science breakthrough is that this year, we actually were able to inject in vivo, so in the body genetic code for CRISPR. ... That's pretty incredible stuff that you can make something, put it into your body, and then your body does the work of editing out the bad genes.
Sacks
Sacks support ×1 sentiment ▶ 1:17:36
Well, you know, I originally had the CRISPR gene in anything, but Chamath already mentioned that.
ARKG 🤖 Synthetic biology's Netscape moment closed 0 CONTESTED ▲ +10.8 33.3 → 44.1
Friedberg
Friedberg support ×2 sentiment ▶ 35:33
And I think that's really a moment that will inspire a whole new realm of industrial synthetic biology work, a lot of which I hope to kind of build and participate in pretty heavily in the work that we do day to day.
WBD 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress closed 27 ▼ -10.4 18.0 → 7.6
Friedberg
Friedberg oppose ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 1:02:16
When that WarnerMedia deal gets done, I think that's the juggernaut stock you want to own. It's going to have an incredible library to compete with Disney.
LIT 🛢️ Battery metals squeeze — lithium, nickel, cobalt push EV prices up 20-30% closed 27 ▲ +10.0 30.4 → 40.5
Chamath
Chamath support ×3 explicit_prediction ▶ 1:22:49
China has done a masterful job. They control a lot of the lithium, a lot of the nickel, a lot of the cobalt, a lot of the graphite. They control a lot of the rare earths that go into the permanent magnets. And we don't have a solution.
ARKX 🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two closed 10 CONTESTED ▲ +9.4 13.3 → 22.7
Chamath
Chamath support ×1 sentiment 60mo horizon ▶ 1:16:00
If you think about what the next five to ten years can bring, Jason, at what you said earlier about making ourselves a multi-planetary species, what an inspiring thing that these thousands of employees across these three businesses did.
AAPL 📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple) closed 36 ▲ +8.9 40.7 → 49.6
Chamath
Chamath support ×3 explicit_prediction 24mo horizon ▶ 28:17
If you put all of that stuff together, I think the thing that that drives is decaying morale. And when you have decaying morale, you have human capital flight. ... I think that this is sort of peak big tech market cap is probably within the next year or two.
GOOGL 📈 Asset-light mega-cap software is the inflation hedge closed 0 CONTESTED ▲ +8.5 32.6 → 41.1
Chamath
Chamath support ×2 sentiment ▶ 30:42
I think the better trade is pick the one that you love in Fang and short the one that you hate in Fang. And if you get that right, you can make a lot of money pretty safe.
KWEB 🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders closed 25 CONTESTED ▲ +7.8 46.5 → 54.2
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 sentiment ▶ 27:20
The CCP really seems to be increasing its control and putting these people under its thumb. And there are a bunch of tech companies there like Alibaba, DD, Tencent, Baidu, jd.com. They've all been targeted for fines and tighter controls. And China's pretty much shut down the foreign IPO market for their tech companies.
HPP 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus closed 50 ▲ +4.7 55.3 → 60.0
Sacks
Sacks support ×1 sentiment ▶ 30:59
And then since then, it's just been snowballing. And San Francisco has basically been sliding into what it's become. Miami just keeps blowing up.
DIS 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney closed 36 CONTESTED ▲ +3.8 16.9 → 20.7
Jason
Jason support ×2 explicit_prediction 12mo horizon ▶ 1:01:30
I think that $118 million is going to go to $300 million. Because they announced so much content from the Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Disney ecosystem that is coming this year and next year. ... Like, this library is going to have a ridiculous 2022
Friedberg
Friedberg oppose ×1 sentiment ▶ 1:02:03
I like HBO Max more than Disney Plus. ... Disney Plus doesn't seem to have a monopoly for me. HBO Max has such a depth of content.
PFE 📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack closed 14 CONTESTED ▼ -3.3 46.8 → 43.5
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 explicit_prediction 12mo horizon ▶ 36:41
These new pills have, I think, a very good shot of doing it next year because they're protease inhibitors. ... I am hopeful that this will be the thing, hopefully, that ends the pandemic next year, are these new antiviral pills.
Friedberg
Friedberg oppose ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 37:35
I would be very cautious about the side effects that are going to arise from these protease inhibitors. ... I think as more people use them, you'll see more crazy stories about side effects that are really significantly adverse.
DBC 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) closed 41 CONTESTED ▲ +0.4 97.4 → 97.9
Sacks
Sacks support ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 43:04
But now it turned out that the inflation was not transitory. And so the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.
cg:ethereum 🪙 NFTs are a durable new asset class, not a liquidity bubble closed 0 CONTESTED ▼ +0.0 0.0 → 0.0
Friedberg
Friedberg oppose ×2 explicit_prediction ▶ 31:51
there's a lot of fluff and a lot of noise and a lot of bubbles going on within this NFT space right now. Most of it will die and it will look terrible when people lose lots of money and feel bad about the decisions they made during this phase.

Episode digest

written during extraction and stored in data/extractions/ep060.json — the auditable source of truth, including everything market-adjacent that did not earn a capture

The 2021 Bestie Awards — a category-by-category retrospective, so most of the runtime is unscoreable by design. Awards handed out: biggest political winner (Sacks: Eric Adams; Friedberg: the blockchain; Chamath: Glenn Youngkin; Jason: Joe Manchin), biggest political loser (Jason: Elizabeth Warren; Chamath: the progressive left and the alt-right; Sacks: Kamala Harris; Friedberg: Fauci), biggest political surprise (Youngkin, Manchin-as-Volcker, Jan 6, Harris sidelined), biggest business winner (Friedberg: the retail investor class; Chamath: Elon; Sacks: Tiger Global; Jason: 'the AANG, not the FANG'), biggest business loser (Friedberg: Gabe Plotkin/Melvin; Sacks: Chinese billionaires; Chamath: big tech; Jason: Meta), biggest business surprise (Sacks: Miami; Friedberg: NFTs; Jason: ConstitutionDAO plus SEC inaction; Chamath: Moderna/BioNTech), best science breakthrough (Friedberg: cell-free starch synthesis; Sacks: oral antivirals; Chamath: in-vivo CRISPR; Jason: Starship SN10), biggest flash in the pan (Sacks: the word 'transitory'; Chamath: all things Metaverse and Web3; Friedberg: ConstitutionDAO; Jason: woke city government), best CEO (Satya, Jack+Elon 'going direct', Brian Armstrong, Frank Slootman), best investor (Dan Loeb, Sequoia x2, Ken Griffin), best turnaround (Ford, Rittenhouse's reputation, WeWork, Disney), most loathsome company (PG&E, Tyson, NYT, Meta), best new tech (DAOs, human spaceflight + Substack, Starlink, plasma fusion), best/worst trend (centrism and #wokelash; creator economy; supply-chain national security; authoritarianism; the metaverse), plus memes, books and the Rudy Giuliani Award for Self-Immolation. The tradeable content is the forward asides. TWO NEW IDEAS. (1) metaverse-hype-cycle-fizzles-2021: all three of Jason, Chamath and Friedberg trash the metaverse/Web3 label in the same episode — Jason calls Meta 'a complete flop', says its VR/AR effort gets 'beaten handily by Apple' and open/decentralized alternatives, and 'I would not buy the stock. I'd buy the other three letters'; Chamath says the Metaverse/Web3 concept 'goes away' exactly like Web 2.0 did and 'this too will be transitory'; Friedberg says the metaverse has existed since Fortnite and the notion anyone can 'own that singular universe is a pretty misguided kind of concept'. Chamath adds the trade structure explicitly: 'pick the one that you love in Fang and short the one that you hate in Fang' (attached to software-quality-inflation-hedge-2021, his own spread trade). Friedberg's lone pushback is factual, not thesis-level ('meta traded up 25% this year, Jackal'). (2) dao-collective-capital-formation-2021: Jason's best-new-tech pick, with an explicit ten-year frame — DAOs 'become legal', $40M ConstitutionDAO is 'the dry run', '400 million and 4 billion will happen in the next 10 years'; Chamath's 'loose affiliations of individuals could compete on a level playing field with organized capital' and Friedberg's blockchain-as-new-model-of-human-organization ('a very serious threat to the current system of politics and economics and social order') attach to it. Friedberg's ConstitutionDAO flash-in-the-pan pick is the caveat — the concept 'will echo' via improved versions, but that particular DAO burned people on gas fees and went silent in two days. Forward picks landing on live ideas: Chamath's worst-trend answer is the battery-metals/rare-earth chokepoint thesis restated with receipts (China controls 'the lithium, the nickel, the cobalt, the graphite' plus rare earths for permanent magnets, US programs stuck in lawsuits, 'we don't have a solution') — same call he formalizes eight days later as his 2022 prediction; Chamath calls 'peak big tech market cap probably within the next year or two' off decaying morale and human-capital flight (the Novi exodus); Sacks predicts oral antivirals end the pandemic 'next year' with Friedberg countering hard on protease-inhibitor side effects; Friedberg and Chamath both write off Omicron ('much less virulent', 'this is the end of the end'); Sacks' 'the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory' is his inflation-is-real reinforcement; Friedberg table-pounds Dalio's Changing World Order — US debt costs it reserve-currency status, with Web3/blockchain as the triggering technology of the transition; Jason predicts Disney+ goes 118M to 300M subs and a 'ridiculous 2022' and that Disney will 'roll over Netflix', while Friedberg counters that HBO Max's library depth is better and 'when that WarnerMedia deal gets done, I think that's the juggernaut stock you want to own'; and three besties converge on legacy news dying (Sacks: 'they are not the paper of record anymore'; Chamath's WaPo click-through collapse; Friedberg: more 'going direct' in the years ahead). Rejected as retrospective: every award that was purely a scorecard of 2021 (Elon, Tiger Global, Ford, Sequoia, Dan Loeb, Satya, WeWork, Ken Griffin's returns, Miami's rise, the retail-investor-class win, PG&E's felony charges, plasma fusion — Friedberg's own answer on timing was 'still, as everyone's been saying for decades, 10 years'). Labels content-verified against fingerprints and clean; a handful of merged turns noted where Jason's short questions got absorbed into the answering speaker's turn (33:05, 34:33, 48:55, 52:48), none affecting a captured quote. Read to the end — final timestamp 1:46:59 (Sacks: 'Bye!'), sign-off is Jason's 'I love you besties... We'll see you all next week for 2022 predictions.'