Google's AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable's 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI

It's painting with too broad a brush to say that all of SaaS is going to get obliterated here... Nobody buys Microsoft because Microsoft writes the best code. They buy Microsoft because Microsoft is the rail that everything else runs on... The government is not going to rip and replace Salesforce. Not all SaaS is equal in this dimension.

some of these SaaS companies with great founders who are in it for the long term and ... passionate user bases, I think they will make the jump to AI first products.

I got my first distribution from a fund I'm in. I'm in a couple of funds that are in SpaceX.

I thought it was a very bullish earnings call. I was a little bit surprised that the stock went down... not only was it a beat and raise, but Elon spoke to a lot of their plans — Starship paves the way for the V3 satellite... 20 times more capacity per launch.

Starlink is just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine... $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA [this quarter]... The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing.

now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation

Anthropic is now over 80 billion of ARR. ... it had forecast 100 billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that ... Now it looks like they're going to do it with a couple of months to spare. So their estimates are going up, I mean, 110, 120 or higher for end of year ARR.

I hear a lot of people saying 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars. ... it's going to be run rating over 100 billion maybe by the end of the year. That's like 10 to 15 times revenue. That is not that much for a company that just grew 10x and is rumored to be profitable in Q2.

the market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly. I think it's a very powerful duopoly. I don't think it's being commoditized. ... Anthropic is now over 80 billion of ARR. Started the year at 10, ... people are willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.

the difference between the open source models I'm using ... the Frontier models are not necessary anymore. They're just not necessary. ... I'm still going with open source and Gemini being the leaders in this space.

Elon comes out and says, not so fast. We're entering the singularity and the frontier models are way further ahead than people think. I believe that to be true. ... Jensen came out this week and said, closed models are actually cheaper. ... explains why they continue to run away with it on the revenue side

I still think Google will be the number one AI company because they have so many people using AI inside of their products already... They will be the number one AI company in terms of consumer usage by far, I think, this year.

it is way too early to count Gemini out on building incredible specialized models. They have the best video data. They have the best life sciences data. ... if you can be the cloud service provider with that mixture of models, which is what Google GCP can now be, I'm going to sign up for working with GCP

Capex is high alpha, low beta in data center infrastructure, that capital. And model development theoretically could be high alpha, but it's very high beta. It's a very risky way to deploy capital.

The demand exists in the world today. I think it will exist in the world for, well, the next 12 to 24 months, ... I suspect this cannot keep up at this pace more than another two years or so. ... Famous last words, I don't see it today over the course of the next 12 to 18 months.