PH

Philippe Laffont

one-off guest ×0.5 · 14 ideas engaged · 1 episodes · E227 → E227
ChamathJasonSacksFriedbergAaron LevieBen ShapiroBill GurleyBrad GerstnerCyan BanisterElon MuskGavin BakerJoe LonsdaleKeith RaboisRyan PetersenThomas LaffontTravis Kalanick
⚠ One-off guest — not scored — only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.
1
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.21
avg strength · 7 dissents

Live book — 1 position

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

ideahis stanceexpressionconvictionflageval in
🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay CONTESTED support ×1 ▼ SHORT GOOGL 9.3 241d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

GOOGL
-9.3 short

How he argues

STANCE MIX
oppose 7
support 7
TIER MIX
explicit_prediction 10
sentiment 2
positioning 2

Latest from him

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 13:15
the Fed did something that I thought was very clever. They basically said, we're not going to cut just to bail out the equity market. But if the market's liquidity is no longer functioning, emphasis on liquidity, then we'll step in to restore liquidity.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 15:23
on the hard data, the part that's most surprising is that consumers have very weak sentiment, but in the meantime, consumer spending is remarkably resilient.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 13:15
when the market did go down a lot, the government did budge and said, hey, we need to step in here.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🌍 A second-term tariff-plus-tax-cut policy mix stokes stagflation E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 23:15
That retailer told us that they think only about 50% of the tariff gets passed in pricing. So I sort of agree with you. There is going to be a net net positive, and that retailers have way to work things around and stuff like that.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 28:47
I feel now there's a chance when you look at the next year or two, at some point tariffs goes away. Trump makes this big deal with deregulation, the tax breaks sort of cancel out the tariffs.
support ×3 explicit_prediction 🤖 We run out of compute again in 2025 E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 28:47
CapEx is going up and everybody has a gigantic shortage of chips right now. That I know for sure from all of our private companies, public companies, there's a shortage of chip, a shortage of compute power.
oppose ×3 explicit_prediction 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 28:47
Microsoft said that in their Q1, they processed 100 trillion tokens, 50 trillion alone in March. And so the tokens are really going basically vertical, which is probably because of these reasoning engines, which are much more sophisticated and require more compute power.
support ×1 sentiment 🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 40:09
is this the next IBM? You're going to stick around for a really, really long time, but you're just not going to be like a company growing as fast as you used to.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Mag-7 concentration unwinds — trillions in drawdown E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 41:45
To me, it's a little bit like the end of the Max 7 And what we should do is almost think like, hey, what is the next? Remember when the Max 7 used to be Fang and then Fang++, and nobody talks about Fang anymore.
oppose ×3 explicit_prediction 📈 The exit drought is a valuation overhang, not antitrust or markets E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 58:28
there's such a view that like large companies are bad and we got to bust them and we're not going to let them do any M&A. And as a result of that, small companies no longer get bought by big ones. And for me, it's a disaster
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Rate cuts plus the AI wave start a new venture cycle - a golden era, not a bubble E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:13:48
ever since, you know, the 20 and 21, which were very high, if you look at 22, 23, 24, and now the 25, I'm like, how is this that it's worse than 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 that were normal years? How is this worse than 13 and 14 and 15?
support ×3 positioning 🏛️ Atkins SEC loosens accredited-investor gating and retail money reaches private markets E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:17:55
these interval funds are really interesting because I think the minimum investment is like $50,000 or something like that. And the conditions to qualify for such a fund are much smaller. So there's many more investors that can come. And I look at it a little bit of like, this is the democratization of tech investing.
support ×2 positioning 📈 You cannot build durable public equity value on a bet-making business E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:21:34
If I can compound capital at 12.5% incentive fee for a very long time, it's better than 20% for a short period of time.
support ×2 sentiment 🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:31:36
Listen, humanoids is a pretty exciting area. I don't know what companies are, but there is going, like, let me, in my top 25, I don't think, I think it's a bit early. I would have a humanoid company.