RE
Reid Hoffman
one-off guest ×0.5
· 9 ideas engaged · 1 episodes
· E194 → E194
⚠ One-off guest — not scored
— only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard
credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.
0
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.22
avg strength · 5 dissents
Live book — 0 positions
Nothing live. Every idea he's touched has already resolved.
How he argues
STANCE MIX
oppose
5
support
4
TIER MIX
explicit_prediction 6
sentiment 3
Latest from him
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 Demand mix shifts to inference and Nvidia has to choose margin or share
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 9:19
But I do think that as you kind of scale the demand, there'll be a lot of inference chips coming in. You know, I think Chamath, you're invested in one of those. Oh, yeah. And I think there's going to be a bunch of those kind of coming in and the bulk of the demand will be on the inference side. And then Nvidia will have this challenge of, do I try to keep my prices and my margin? Or do I do what why we like competition? Do I have to respond to the competitive market? And then that, I think, will play out, you know, start playing out probably in a year, two at the latest, and then kind of go. So I think it's not sustain, the pure heat is not sustainable. But I think it's, you know, Nvidia has got a very strong position. And, you know, I definitely, I would recommend people not be short on Nvidia.
oppose ×2
sentiment
🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 12:10
let's rationalize the capital to when are we expecting revenue? How do we get revenue sooner to have that as a good productive cycle? How do we be not trying to just spend like drunken sailors, which is easy to do, but to be targeting business outcomes?
oppose ×2
sentiment
🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 26:58
we can train these models, like training is like reading. And like reading things is, like when something's available to be read, and you've engaged in the right economic thing for reading it, I think that's a kind of a reasonable, fair use thing.
oppose ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 Training-data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) win 2024
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 26:58
don't try to hold out for money on the training side of things, because we're going to create synthetic data, we're going to do all kinds of other things that are going to mean that no one's particular data is really going to matter. What you should be is on freshness, on brand, on other things
oppose ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 26:58
we're going to create synthetic data, we're going to do all kinds of other things that are going to mean that no one's particular data is really going to matter
oppose ×3
explicit_prediction
🏛️ OpenAI's nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion becomes a tax and litigation overhang
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 25:22
The 501c3 continues to control the mission and destiny and so forth. And so that question about its mission is still guiding things and you're essentially investing in that mission.
support ×3
explicit_prediction
🏛️ Speculative-competition antitrust blocks chill tech M&A
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 32:40
her theory is you got to prevent the aggregation of powers, you got to fight every acquisition of note. And the problem, of course, is that actually quells venture capital investment.
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🏛️ Litigation forces the app-store duopoly to open up and cut the 30% rake
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 36:26
everyone likes to talk about Google, I think the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store.
support ×2
sentiment
🏛️ A Democrat trifecta prices in the unrealized-gains wealth tax
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 1:02:07
Look, I think it's definitely a quelling impact, and it's definitely stupid, and definitely shouldn't happen.