Bill Hagerty

one-off guest ×0.5 · 4 ideas engaged · 1 episodes · E236 → E236

Chamath Jason Sacks Friedberg Aaron Levie Ben Shapiro Bill Gurley Brad Gerstner Cyan Banister Elon Musk Gavin Baker Joe Lonsdale Keith Rabois Ryan Petersen Thomas Laffont Travis Kalanick

⚠ One-off guest — not scored — only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.

live positions

lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born

1.75

avg strength · 1 dissents

Live book — 1 position

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

idea	his stance	expression	conviction	flag	eval in
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control CONTESTED	support ×2	▼ SHORT BAH	16.0	—	59d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

BAH

-16.0 short

How he argues

STANCE MIX

support 3

oppose 1

TIER MIX

explicit_prediction 3

sentiment 1

Latest from him

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:09:37

This is about taking America's payment system in the 21st century. This is about making our nation more competitive. This is about expanding demand for the US Treasury securities that we issue. This is about the dominance of the US dollar.

support ×1 sentiment 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:10:40

Jameson is back now as the US Trade Representative and I'm very optimistic that we're going to see more trade flourish. President Trump knows how to do this. I've been with him in the trade negotiations. He knows exactly how to navigate this.

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:12:13

So the focus is going to be to continue to find opportunities to basically legislate what has been found in DOJ, the other activities well beyond DOJ. Every department head, every agency is looking for ways to streamline regulations and to cut the cost and to operate more efficiently. I've got to believe there are tremendous opportunities there and many billions more dollars that will come out of the budget as a result.

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:15:08

The Big Beautiful Bill is doing, it's oriented toward growth stimulation. Everything that we can do to stimulate more capital investment in the United States is embodied in the tax law as part of that bill. So with the growth coming out of the Big Beautiful Bill, and if we continue to go through the cuts with decisions, I'm very optimistic that we're going to get back on the right path.