Mark Pincus

one-off guest ×0.5 · 6 ideas engaged · 1 episodes · E211 → E211

Chamath Jason Sacks Friedberg Aaron Levie Ben Shapiro Bill Gurley Brad Gerstner Cyan Banister Elon Musk Gavin Baker Joe Lonsdale Keith Rabois Ryan Petersen Thomas Laffont Travis Kalanick

⚠ One-off guest — not scored — only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.

live positions

lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born

2.17

avg strength · 0 dissents

Live book — 1 position

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

idea	his stance	expression	conviction	flag	eval in
🏛️ LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months	support ×2	▼ SHORT BLDR	15.0	—	495d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

BLDR

-15.0 short

How he argues

STANCE MIX

support 6

TIER MIX

explicit_prediction 3

sentiment 2

positioning 1

Latest from him

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 44:02

when it comes to service providers, yeah, you have the opposite problem right now, which is like you're saying, you need to incentivize a huge construction force to come to LA. And the cost for them to get there, to find housing themselves, is going to be even higher, or the amount of distance they're going to have to travel every day. So I think this could have real unintended consequences and just stop the wheels from turning on rebuilding all these homes, or just make it way more complex.

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:09:11

And so I'm, the best outcome, I think, would be forced to divest and sell to another American company. But if that doesn't happen, I'm kind of nervous about a real backlash.

support ×3 positioning 📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:19:08

I I've been loading up on Alibaba, a couple of Chinese names with the same bet.

support ×2 sentiment 📈 AI eats middle management before the entry level E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:22:57

the class I taught on Monday at Stanford, they said, everyone wants a job at Meta or Google, and that's the get rich quick place. And it's, I don't even think that's necessarily true anymore. And they can't get those jobs because those companies are now trying to get rid of middle management. So those jobs have dried up.

support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Higher education's value unwinds, starting with the MBA E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 1:22:57

It also probably is going to reduce the demand to go into these MBA programs, because if you're thinking, well, that's not going to be my risk off trade, and I'm not going to be guaranteed. So why go in the first place?

support ×2 sentiment 📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 53:11

I think it's great that Daniel Lurie is mayor of San Francisco, and he's putting smart people around him. And they're trying to rethink, first some attacking these core problems, but also how do we make San Francisco fun again? So I love things like congestion pricing. I think now is the time to try every new innovation that you ever thought of and see what sticks