Sam Altman

one-off guest ×0.5 · 12 ideas engaged · 1 episodes · E178 → E178

Chamath Jason Sacks Friedberg Aaron Levie Ben Shapiro Bill Gurley Brad Gerstner Cyan Banister Elon Musk Gavin Baker Joe Lonsdale Keith Rabois Ryan Petersen Thomas Laffont Travis Kalanick

⚠ One-off guest — not scored — only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.

live positions

lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born

1.92

avg strength · 6 dissents

Live book — 0 positions

Nothing live. Every idea he's touched has already resolved.

How he argues

STANCE MIX

support 6

oppose 6

TIER MIX

explicit_prediction 8

sentiment 4

Latest from him

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 Inference cost is the gate on AI search — 10x too expensive today E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 6:15

We want to like cut the latency super dramatically. We want to cut the cost really, really dramatically.

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 8:51

What we're trying to do is not make the sort of smartest set of weights that we can. What we're trying to make is like this useful intelligence layer for people to use. And a model is part of that. I think we will stay pretty far ahead of, I hope, we'll stay pretty far ahead of the rest of the world on that.

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 12:31

I definitely don't think it will be an arms race for data because when the models get smart enough at some point, it shouldn't be about more data, at least not for training.

support ×1 sentiment 🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 22:36

Same with how I'm, like, more excited about humanoid robots than sort of robots of, like, very other shapes. The world is very much designed for humans and I think we should absolutely keep it that way.

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 AI agents disintermediate consumer app interfaces E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 23:50

It's hard for me to imagine that we just go to a world totally where you say, like, hey, chat GBT, order me sushi, and it says, okay, do you want it from this restaurant? What time? Whatever. I think visual user interfaces are super good for a lot of things.

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 AlphaFold 3 turns drug discovery into software — Google/Isomorphic captures it E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 25:41

health care, I believe, should be pretty transformed by this. But the thing I'm personally most excited about is the sort of doing faster and better scientific discovery.

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 Training-data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) win 2024 E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 34:11

I think the conversation has been historically very caught up on training data, but it will increasingly become more about what happens at inference time.

support ×2 sentiment 🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 36:38

So I think there's an opt in, opt out in that case, first of all, and then there's an economic model.

support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 46:21

the reason I have pushed for an agency-based approach for the big picture stuff and not write it in law, is I don't, in 12 months, it will all be written wrong

oppose ×2 sentiment 🏛️ OpenAI's nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion becomes a tax and litigation overhang E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 1:01:26

The things like device companies or if we were doing some chipfab company, those are not Sam projects. OpenAI would get that equity.

oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 1:02:17

I think the world needs a lot more AI infrastructure, a lot more than it's currently planning to build and with a different cost structure.

support ×2 sentiment 🤖 OpenAI keeps the consumer AI lead through a developer network effect E178 · 2024-05-10 ▶ 1:02:58

you had OpenAI say we're going to basically put the whole company and work together to make GPT-4. And that was unimaginable for how to run an AI research lab. But it is, I think, what works.