AN

Antonio Gracias

one-off guest ×0.5 · 8 ideas engaged · 1 episodes · E214 → E214
ChamathJasonSacksFriedbergAaron LevieBen ShapiroBill GurleyBrad GerstnerCyan BanisterElon MuskGavin BakerJoe LonsdaleKeith RaboisRyan PetersenThomas LaffontTravis Kalanick
⚠ One-off guest — not scored — only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.
1
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.0
avg strength · 2 dissents

Live book — 1 position

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

ideahis stanceexpressionconvictionflageval in
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control CONTESTED support ×3 ▼ SHORT BAH 16.0 59d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

BAH
-16.0 short

How he argues

STANCE MIX
support 6
oppose 2
TIER MIX
explicit_prediction 6
positioning 1
sentiment 1

Latest from him

support ×3 explicit_prediction 🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 7:22
I think it's kind of 10% of the budget is probably fraud. I think it might be low, actually. So you're talking about $650 billion, a trillion in waste. I think that's probably about right. That alone fixes the problem.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 7:22
The bond markets were going up. The bond bond was going up a lot because people believe that you couldn't stop spending, creating inflation. You see those trading down now as DOGE is starting to take effect. People see it's real.
support ×2 positioning 📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025 E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 24:14
we literally have a rule here, government payor in those areas, if it's more than like a third of the business, we don't do it. And in the services space, this is why we found continuous fraud in the companies we're looking at investing in.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🏛️ Washington starts taking equity and royalties in exchange for permits and grants E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 55:13
I think it, for a different reason, is that we don't have an industrial policy in America. Many of our strategic competitors around the world, in particular China, have a long-term industrial policy, and they put enormous amounts of capital behind the industrial policy. A sovereign wealth fund, I think, would be a stealthy way to create industrial policy in America.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 DeepSeek proves frontier-model costs are collapsing E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:12:49
people are waking up that return on invested capital and data centers will matter, that the models are basic commodities and super competitive. In the best case, it's kind of a land war in Asia, it's a melee. In the worst case, it's just total commodities.
oppose ×2 explicit_prediction 🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:12:49
So I don't think it's over done and blown. I think this is going to be, as you guys have said before in the podcast, bigger than Industrial Revolution, but it's also true that you'd need to have a good ROIC.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 Agents replace the entry-level analyst — static team size at scale E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:18:09
What I think is going to happen is that you will have job loss, but the amount of productivity that will be released in the US economy is going to be extraordinary.
oppose ×1 sentiment 📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:28:05
how much do you think really long term when the long term studies are out is going to be that it was the drug or just that being obese is very bad for you?