This week
state after E288 (2026-09-04) · deltas vs E287 · 31 active · 5 green · 19 contested · 274 eps mined · full pool →
🎯 Act
crossings since E287 · 2026-08-29 · band-line crossings: into green / out of green / below watch
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN this week — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.3
NEW
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
fell below WATCH (was 45.9) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION
44.9
▼ -0.9
crossings since 2026-08-07 · band-line crossings: into green / out of green / below watch
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window (was 55.7) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
71.0
▼ -3.0
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window (was 36.9) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.5
▼ -1.4
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints
WATCH
EARLY
fell OUT of green (was 67.0) — if you hold this, review the exit
▲ LONG RSP
EXPRESSION
54.6
▼ -2.3
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
fell below WATCH (was 49.7) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION
44.9
▼ -0.9
crossings since 2026-06-05 · band-line crossings: into green / out of green / below watch
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — dipped and re-crossed (was already 75.8 at baseline) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
86.6
▲ +1.8
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
71.0
▼ -3.0
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window (was 23.1) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.5
▼ -1.4
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints
WATCH
EARLY
fell OUT of green (was 65.6) — if you hold this, review the exit
▲ LONG RSP
EXPRESSION
54.6
▼ -2.3
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
WATCH
CONTESTED
EARLY
fell OUT of green (was 86.6) — if you hold this, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
53.9
▼ -2.2
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION
44.9
▼ -0.9
🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026
EMBER
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▼ SHORT MUB
EXPRESSION
35.6
▼ -1.5
🤖 Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
EMBER
fell below WATCH (was 49.8) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
29.3
▼ -1.2
🤖 The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026
EMBER
CONTESTED
fell below WATCH (was 48.4) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▼ SHORT IGV
EXPRESSION
19.2
▼ -0.8
crossings since 2026-03-06 · band-line crossings: into green / out of green / below watch
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — dipped and re-crossed (was already 84.6 at baseline) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
86.6
▲ +1.8
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
71.0
▼ -3.0
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window (was 16.3) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.5
▼ -1.4
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints
WATCH
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG RSP
EXPRESSION
54.6
▼ -2.3
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
WATCH
CONTESTED
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
53.9
▼ -2.2
🤖 The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026
EMBER
CONTESTED
fell OUT of green (was 67.8) — if you hold this, review the exit
▼ SHORT IGV
EXPRESSION
19.2
▼ -0.8
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION
44.9
▼ -0.9
🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026
EMBER
fell below WATCH (was 56.1) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▼ SHORT MUB
EXPRESSION
35.6
▼ -1.5
🤖 Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
EMBER
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
29.3
▼ -1.2
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
EMBER
CONTESTED
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG MSFT
EXPRESSION
26.6
▼ -1.2
🌍 The debasement trade: USD is 2026's worst asset
EMBER
CONTESTED
fell below WATCH (was 63.4) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▼ SHORT UUP
EXPRESSION
17.0
▼ -0.7
🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026
DORMANT
CONTESTED
fell below WATCH (was 52.1) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▲ LONG TLT
EXPRESSION
10.5
▼ -0.4
🤖 Nvidia risk: special-purpose silicon + Huawei
DORMANT
CONTESTED
fell below WATCH (was 62.2) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▼ SHORT NVDA
EXPRESSION
10.4
▼ -0.2
crossings since 2025-09-04 · band-line crossings: into green / out of green / below watch
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window (was 15.2) — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
86.6
▲ +1.8
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
71.0
▼ -3.0
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.5
▼ -1.4
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
✦ went GREEN in this window — born straight into it — entry-worthy, read the memo + entry flag
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints
WATCH
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG RSP
EXPRESSION
54.6
▼ -2.3
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
WATCH
CONTESTED
EARLY
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
53.9
▼ -2.2
🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026
EMBER
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▼ SHORT MUB
EXPRESSION
35.6
▼ -1.5
🌍 China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization
EMBER
fell OUT of green (was 65.7) — if you hold this, review the exit
▲ LONG ROBO
EXPRESSION
25.4
▼ -0.5
🤖 The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026
EMBER
CONTESTED
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▼ SHORT IGV
EXPRESSION
19.2
▼ -0.8
🌍 The debasement trade: USD is 2026's worst asset
EMBER
CONTESTED
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▼ SHORT UUP
EXPRESSION
17.0
▼ -0.7
🤖 Nvidia risk: special-purpose silicon + Huawei
DORMANT
CONTESTED
round-tripped: went green AND died inside this window — if you entered on that green, review the exit
▼ SHORT NVDA
EXPRESSION
10.4
▼ -0.2
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION
44.9
▼ -0.9
🤖 Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
EMBER
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
29.3
▼ -1.2
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
EMBER
CONTESTED
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG MSFT
EXPRESSION
26.6
▼ -1.2
🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars
EMBER
fell below WATCH (was 53.2) — thesis fading, stop tracking unless it re-fires
▲ LONG MSFT
EXPRESSION
20.6
▼ -0.4
🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026
DORMANT
CONTESTED
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG TLT
EXPRESSION
10.5
▼ -0.4
📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization
DORMANT
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG ICE
EXPRESSION
9.7
▼ -0.4
📈 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs
DORMANT
CONTESTED
briefly held WATCH inside this window, now below 45 — thesis fizzled fast
▲ LONG IPO
EXPRESSION
6.3
▼ -0.3
🐣 New ideas
E288 · 2026-09-04 · ranked by conviction
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions — new ideas start small; worth a read, not a trade
67.3
NEW
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
WATCH
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 2 mentions — new ideas start small; worth a read, not a trade
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION
57.9
NEW
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
WATCH
CONTESTED
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions — new ideas start small; worth a read, not a trade
▲ LONG DLR
EXPRESSION
57.5
NEW
born since 2026-08-07 · ranked by conviction
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E284 · 2026-08-08 · 6 mentions
71.0
▼ -3.0
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
67.3
NEW
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
WATCH
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 2 mentions
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION
57.9
NEW
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
WATCH
CONTESTED
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG DLR
EXPRESSION
57.5
NEW
🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion
EMBER
CONTESTED
born E285 · 2026-08-14 · 2 mentions
▲ LONG META
EXPRESSION
26.7
▼ -1.1
born since 2026-06-05 · ranked by conviction
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E277 · 2026-06-19 · 11 mentions
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E284 · 2026-08-08 · 6 mentions
71.0
▼ -3.0
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
born E282 · 2026-07-24 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
WATCH
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 2 mentions
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION
57.9
NEW
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
WATCH
CONTESTED
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG DLR
EXPRESSION
57.5
NEW
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters
EMBER
born E278 · 2026-06-26 · 1 mention
▲ LONG MU
EXPRESSION
44.9
▼ -0.9
📈 Web2 buyouts: the flaccid-asset M&A wave
EMBER
born E281 · 2026-07-18 · 2 mentions
▲ LONG PYPL
EXPRESSION
32.7
▼ -1.4
+1 more born in this window — see the pool
born since 2026-03-06 · ranked by conviction
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E277 · 2026-06-19 · 11 mentions
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E284 · 2026-08-08 · 6 mentions
71.0
▼ -3.0
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
born E282 · 2026-07-24 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
WATCH
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 2 mentions
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION
57.9
NEW
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
WATCH
CONTESTED
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG DLR
EXPRESSION
57.5
NEW
📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
WATCH
born E271 · 2026-05-01 · 5 mentions
▲ LONG PANW
EXPRESSION
55.2
▲ +36.8
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
WATCH
CONTESTED
EARLY
born E263 · 2026-03-06 · 35 mentions
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
53.9
▼ -2.2
+11 more born in this window — see the pool
born since 2025-09-04 · ranked by conviction
📈 SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E277 · 2026-06-19 · 11 mentions
84.0
▼ -1.7
📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E284 · 2026-08-08 · 6 mentions
71.0
▼ -3.0
🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher
GREEN
MOVING
📝 MEMO
born E261 · 2026-02-13 · 9 mentions
67.5
▼ -1.4
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
GREEN
EARLY
📝 MEMO
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
67.3
NEW
🤖 Google wins consumer AI via distribution
WATCH
EARLY
born E282 · 2026-07-24 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG GOOGL
EXPRESSION
61.2
▼ -2.5
🤖 Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion
WATCH
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 2 mentions
▲ LONG NVDA
EXPRESSION
57.9
NEW
🏛️ The anti-data-center backlash peaks and reverses post-midterms
WATCH
CONTESTED
born E288 · 2026-09-04 · 4 mentions
▲ LONG DLR
EXPRESSION
57.5
NEW
📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
WATCH
born E271 · 2026-05-01 · 5 mentions
▲ LONG PANW
EXPRESSION
55.2
▲ +36.8
+33 more born in this window — see the pool
📈📉 Movers
baseline: E287 · 2026-08-29 · conviction deltas · ideas born this episode live in New Ideas above; band crossings appear in both places, tagged ↑ in Act
▲ +36.8
▲ +1.8
▼ -2.5
▼ -2.3
▼ -1.7
baseline: 2026-08-07 · conviction deltas · ideas born this episode live in New Ideas above; band crossings appear in both places, tagged ↑ in Act
▲ +33.5
▼ -15.7
🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026
▼ -12.5
DORMANT 11
▲ LONG TLT
▼ -8.1
▼ -7.4
baseline: 2026-06-05 · conviction deltas · ideas born this episode live in New Ideas above; band crossings appear in both places, tagged ↑ in Act
baseline: 2026-03-06 · conviction deltas · ideas born this episode live in New Ideas above; band crossings appear in both places, tagged ↑ in Act
baseline: 2025-09-04 · conviction deltas · ideas born this episode live in New Ideas above; band crossings appear in both places, tagged ↑ in Act
▼ -40.3
▼ -25.4
▼ -23.7
▼ -22.2
decay alone drags every idea a little each week — big drops mean opposes or brush-offs; long-window gainers are theses the besties keep coming back to
⚖ Verdicts this week
| idea | call | closed | verdict | R | alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset | ▲ LONG CAT | 2026-09-07 | HIT | +94.2% | +74.2% |
⏳ Next evals due
| idea | call | band | eval by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Gaming is AI's biggest entertainment winner | ▲ LONG ESPO | DORMANT 5 | 2026-10-03 |
| 📈 Private equity model is broken | ▼ SHORT BX | DORMANT 14 | 2026-10-03 |
| 📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization | ▲ LONG ICE | DORMANT 10 | 2026-10-10 |
| 📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast | ▼ SHORT DKNG | DORMANT 7 | 2026-10-24 |
| 🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline | ▲ LONG AAPL | DORMANT 8 | 2026-10-26 |
| 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 | ▲ LONG TLT | DORMANT 11 | 2026-11-07 |