◢ ALL-IN ALPHA 2026-11-07
BE

Ben Horowitz

one-off guest ×0.5 · 10 ideas engaged · 1 episodes · E293 → E293
ChamathJasonSacksFriedbergAaron LevieBen ShapiroBill GurleyBrad GerstnerCyan BanisterElon MuskGavin BakerJoe LonsdaleKeith RaboisRyan PetersenThomas LaffontTravis Kalanick
⚠ One-off guest — not scored — only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard credit, so this voice has no scored track record. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.
10
live positions
+52
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.0
avg strength · 1 dissents

Live book — 10 positions

his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.

ideahis stanceexpressionconvictionflageval in
🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway POD DISAGREES support ×3 ▲ LONG NVDA 86.5 NOT MOVED YET 288d
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left POD DISAGREES support ×2 ▲ LONG QQQ 75.6 NOT MOVED YET 1032d
⚡ Power is the AI moat: get long energy and the owners of powered land support ×1 ▲ LONG VST 68.5 — 344d
🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T POD DISAGREES support ×3 ▲ LONG GOOGL 61.3 NOT MOVED YET 119d
📈 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs POD DISAGREES support ×2 ▲ LONG IPO 42.9 — 64d
📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters support ×1 ▲ LONG MU 42.4 — 414d
🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) POD DISAGREES support ×2 ▲ LONG MSFT 37.7 — 119d
🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business POD DISAGREES support ×1 ▼ SHORT NBIS 34.3 — 121d
🤖 The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 POD DISAGREES oppose ×2 ▲ LONG IGV 34.3 — 64d
🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives POD DISAGREES support ×3 ▲ LONG NVDA 30.5 NOT MOVED YET 308d

Where his book points

net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.

NVDA
+117.0 long
QQQ
+75.6 long
VST
+68.5 long
GOOGL
+61.3 long
IPO
+42.9 long
MU
+42.4 long
MSFT
+37.7 long
NBIS
-34.3 short
IGV
+34.3 long

How he argues

STANCE MIX
support 9
oppose 1
TIER MIX
sentiment 7
explicit_prediction 3

Latest from him

support ×1 sentiment 📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 13:43
And then there's he's got to buy memory like and there's memory shortage and in that.
support ×3 explicit_prediction 🤖 AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 14:35
I said, yeah, like, we're out of everything, you know, till 2028 He's like, oh, it's beyond 2028 Like, I don't think we get stuff back. Like, end of 2028, maybe. So everything else is sold out.
support ×1 sentiment 🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 14:35
It's why, by the way, we're not invested in any of these neoclouds either, for that reason, because that whole thing scares me, having been through it.
support ×2 sentiment 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 14:35
He's got supply in a great shortage, which is extremely different than the Internet bubble.
support ×2 sentiment 🤖 Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 27:53
Whatever you're holding in the equity markets, whatever you're holding, OpenAI and Anthropic are threats to that. There's almost nothing that you can hold in a portfolio that those two companies don't threaten.
support ×2 explicit_prediction 📈 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 28:08
And so I'm not worried at all about the demand for those IPOs.
oppose ×2 sentiment 🤖 The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 35:53
look, I don't think so. Like, this has been the ongoing prediction starting with the SaaS apocalypse.
support ×1 sentiment ⚡ Power is the AI moat: get long energy and the owners of powered land E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 39:50
Yeah, such a disaster. I very much agree with that last one. Yeah, I think that's right.
support ×3 explicit_prediction 🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 50:35
Yeah, so I think the IPO will be fine, like whether you want to be in at 2 trillion or 1.9 trillion or 2.3 trillion.
support ×3 sentiment 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:26:50
Again, zero of those four have been met. We're not on track for any of those four to be met unless something is going on in the big labs that we don't know about.