PA
Patrick Collison
one-off guest ×0.5
· 7 ideas engaged · 1 episodes
· E216 → E216
⚠ One-off guest — not scored
— only besties and guests heard across 2+ episodes earn scoreboard
credit, so this voice has no track record and no skill weight. Their mentions still move conviction, at ×0.5.
1
live positions
+0
lifetime conviction force · 0 ideas born
2.0
avg strength · 2 dissents
Live book — 1 position
his latest stance on every ACTIVE idea. Expression = what he is effectively long or short: supporting a bearish idea is a SHORT, opposing one is a LONG.
| idea | his stance | expression | conviction | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control CONTESTED | support ×2 | ▼ SHORT BAH | 16.0 | — | 59d |
Where his book points
net push per primary instrument across his live stances — conviction × his agreement × the idea's direction. This is his implied book, not a position he disclosed.
How he argues
STANCE MIX
support
5
oppose
2
TIER MIX
explicit_prediction 5
sentiment 2
Latest from him
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🪙 Dollar stablecoins are 2025's biggest business winner
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 8:05
I think the interesting use of stable coins is cross-border, is outside the US. I mean, the big use case that's taking off right now is consumers in other countries seeking to hold dollars.
oppose ×2
explicit_prediction
🪙 Stablecoins become the standard US payment rail and crush the card take rate
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 8:05
Card programs are not actually big profit pools for most of the major banks... And maybe other points in that space are viable, but it is a set of trade-offs, and it's not as simple as this enormous rent extraction happening.
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 8:05
So I think it's a really big deal, certainly for people in those countries, and in some sense also for the US, because the dollar status as the world's reserve currency, I think is in the process of becoming much more deeply established.
oppose ×2
sentiment
📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 32:23
NVIDIA, last I checked, is doing pretty damn well, and Jensen is on the record as saying he doesn't give a shit about where you work... And so I guess I'm just skeptical of flat shoulds in this space.
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 41:01
as far as I can tell, the cuts proposed over the next couple of years for the Defense Department are of approximately the same magnitude as the reduction in the defense budget that occurred between 2010 and today. And so it's not like this is some unprecedented transformation in DOD budget.
judging by the tweets that I see, there are a lot of ticker symbols and charts and prognostications about future price trajectories and so forth that lead me to think that people are placing somewhat more weight on the asset and security value of these
support ×2
explicit_prediction
🤖 AI-designed open-source gene editors break the CRISPR patent toll
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 1:07:23
I don't know if you analogize Evo 2 to, I don't know whether it's GPD 2 or 3 or something, but I think we're going to see a similar Cambrian explosion of applications over the next couple of years.