E20

E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it

2021-02-03 spoken.md · speaker-labeled ▶ watch ← E19 all episodes E21 →

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decay · 11 silent

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No tradeable captures — Robinhood postmortem + California-fix episode. Chamath opens with an on-air apology to Jason for E19's heat. Robinhood wrap: DTCC demanded $3B collateral (later cut to ~$700M); RH raised $3.4B in a week; Elon's Clubhouse grilling of Vlad ('did you have a gun to your head?') judged evasive by Sacks — his founder lesson: if forced to violate your stated mission, post the order or a reasoned blog; Friedberg frames it as shareholders-vs-customers under a VAR spike (Sacks: company should eat it, like Airbnb's $250M refunds); Sacks reframes 'conspiracy' as CONFLICT — Citadel on both sides (47% of PFOF + Melvin bailout); Chamath: employees get creamed by the $3.4B pref stack, SoFi's PFOF is $1.5M vs RH's ~$400M run-rate (talking-book flagged by Jason in E19); GME short interest halving, stock -60% on the day — squeeze unwinding as Sacks' E19 bearish call starts landing. Fixes floated (policy, digest): T+0 settlement kills the margin problem (Chamath), shorting is healthy (3 legit uses; he's never lent his Tesla shares out despite 24% borrow), share-lending economics explained (GME borrow hit 30-60%). Sacks' 'Insiders' Game' blog: Larry Summers-to-Elizabeth-Warren quote ('insiders don't criticize other insiders'); new fault line = insider vs outsider, not left vs right (AOC+Cruz aligned); Chamath: 'career anything' is now disqualifying; Friedberg defends institutions/deep state from runaway populism. California report card (Chamath's list): 8%+ unemployment, 18.5% poverty, 13.3% top tax, $30B EDD fraud (~27% of $114B claims), worst vaccination deployment, Toyota/Schwab/Tesla/Oracle exits ≈ $77B future revenue + 300K jobs, 53% want to leave. Structural diagnosis: 70% of $140B revenue from personal income tax, HALF from ~40,000 top households — 10K leaving blows a $50-60B hole (Friedberg); $250B underfunded public pensions (1 in 9 Californians a member; 20-year retirement + overtime-stuffed final-year formula, 401k reform killed by unions); Props 13/4/98 straitjacket; 340K public employees >$100K. Jason predicts DEATH SPIRAL for CA/NY absent representation reform (rhetorical, no instrument). Fentanyl corner: treat it as a separate super-drug class (70K+ ODs/yr, 4-5x COVID deaths in SF), giant treatment centers over jail, Prop 47 rollback (Sacks 'tough and tolerant' platform). Bestie platform: school vouchers + $100-125K teacher pay (Chamath's #1; Sacks' $450K/classroom vs teacher-cost math; recall-the-headmaster mechanism), zero personal income tax + progressive corporate tax + equity-for-credits (CA owning 1% of Apple/Google/FB ≈ trillions), housing/multifamily (Jason). Chamath-for-governor: hedges hard — needs to check conflict laws, won't abandon his BATTERY PROJECT (first public mention — precursor to his later energy positioning), would serve 18 months on a platform-not-candidate basis; Sacks donated $50K to rescuecalifornia.org. Aziz Ansari mistaken-identity story. Labels clean.